http://www.nationalreview.com/node/434259/print Trump’s Prospects
Can The Donald win the nomination? More important, could he win in November?
By Michael Tanner — April 20, 2016
Give credit where credit is due. Donald Trump is basking in another big victory today. And there may never have been a campaign that bases so much of its reason for existence on “winning.”
Yet, consider that even as Trump wins a landslide victory among Republican primary voters in New York, his polling numbers for November continue to plummet. According to the RealClearPolitics average of the latest polls, Trump would lose to Hillary Clinton — perhaps the worst Democratic candidate since George McGovern — by more than 9 percentage points. His net favorability rating is now just above 40 percent. That’s not exactly the stuff of “winning.”
To the degree that Trump has a strategy — a debatable point — it appears to be to appeal to disaffected white working-class voters, the oft-discussed “Reagan Democrats.” Trump hopes that by getting these nominally Democratic voters to cross over in November, he can expand the electoral map into the Midwest and other traditionally blue areas. In addition, Trump hopes to attract the 4 to 5 million “missing” conservatives who supposedly abandoned Mitt Romney in 2012.
Unfortunately, as with so much about the Trump campaign, the numbers don’t actually add up.
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