http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-republican-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=38487665By ABC NEWS ANALYSIS DESK
Apr 19, 2016, 6:25 PM ET
The following is reportable as “preliminary” exit poll results from the New York Republican primaries. Please note that exit poll results can and do change as additional data come in – sometimes substantially – and that this a particular concern in New York given polling-place schedules. Check back for updates.
Emerging Themes
Here's a summary of what we are seeing grouped by key themes.
Beat Clinton: In one example of his home-state advantage, Trump leads on electability among New York GOP primary voters in preliminary exit poll results. More than half of voters say he has the best chance to beat Hillary Clinton in November, vs. two in 10 for Kasich and fewer than two in 10 for Cruz.
That’s a sharp contrast to Wisconsin, where a plurality, 43 percent, said Cruz has the best chance to beat Clinton, more than said so about Trump (37 percent) or Kasich (17 percent).
Vote in November: Trump also prevails among New York GOP primary voters in terms of their own potential support in November, according to preliminary exit poll results. Should he be the party’s nominee, about half in these preliminary results say they’d definitely vote for him; a quarter flatly rule him out. “Definitely support” numbers are lower for Cruz (about a quarter) and Kasich (three in 10). And more Republican primary voters flatly rule out Cruz in November than do so for Trump.
The deep rifts within the party are highlighted by the number of Trump supporters who say they would not vote for Cruz or Kasich in November – roughly four in 10 – and by the number of Cruz or Kasich voters who say they wouldn’t vote for Trump, nearly as many.
Contested convention? More than seven in 10 New York GOP voters in preliminary exit poll results say the candidate with the most votes in the primaries should win the party’s nomination; a quarter instead favors a contested convention, saying that delegates should pick whichever nominee they think best. That’s less than half the level of support for a contested convention than we saw in Wisconsin, where just 43 percent favored going with the candidate with the most votes, while 55 percent said the delegates should choose.
Similar to Wisconsin, Trump’s New York supporters overwhelmingly oppose a contested convention. It’s much lower among Cruz/Kasich supporters, though, unlike Wisconsin, still a majority.
GOP rift: In another example of the wounds within the GOP, nearly six in 10 New York voters in preliminary exit poll results say this year’s campaign has mostly divided the party rather than energized it. Comparable views on the Democratic side are much more muted.
Early deciders: More than half of New York GOP voters say they made up their minds more than a month before the primaries – much higher than in previous primaries and on pace to be the most of the 2016 cycle – while fewer than half decided in the last month. Trump’s dominated among early deciders, but it’s been a different story among late deciders. In recent contests, Cruz won those who made up their minds in the last month in Wisconsin, North Carolina, Missouri and Illinois; Kasich won them in Ohio.
Conservatives/evangelicals: In preliminary exit poll results, evangelicals are in short supply, as are strong conservatives – groups customarily better for Cruz. Evangelicals account for about a quarter of voters in preliminary exit poll results (vs. 42 percent in Wisconsin and 58 percent in all primaries to date). “Very” conservatives account for two in 10 voters, vs. 31 percent in Wisconsin and 34 percent overall.
Wall Street: We’ve noted that more than six in 10 Democratic primary voters say Wall Street does more to hurt than help the U.S. economy; turns out the Street isn’t widely popular among Republican primary voters, either. They divide about evenly on whether Wall Street helps or hurts the economy.
Outsider: Trump may reach a new high on his signature issue: Nearly two-thirds of GOP primary voters in these preliminary exit poll results are looking for an outsider rather than someone with political experience. Outsider voters, a group Trump’s won overwhelmingly in past contests, peaked previously at 61 percent in Nevada.
Muslims/Immigrants/Anger: Six in 10 New York GOP primary voters in these preliminary results also favor banning non-U.S. Muslims from entering the country – a substantial majority, albeit but down from its average elsewhere. Another signature Trump issue again does less well; just a third of GOP primary voters support deporting undocumented immigrants. It’s been higher on average – but not a majority – in previous GOP contests to date. Also, more than a third are “angry” with the federal government, roughly on par with previous primaries.
Attributes: Trump’s struggled to date among voters focused on a candidate who “shares my values,” the top attribute – it’s been selected by 36 percent of GOP primary voters this season, and Trump’s won just 12 percent of their votes. He’s done better by far among those looking for a candidate who “tells it like it is” or “can bring needed change.” He’s also beat Cruz, on average, among voters focused on electability – a small but comparatively strong group for Marco Rubio before he dropped out.
In Wisconsin, Cruz beat Trump by more than usual among values voters, took electability voters and split “change” voters with him. We’ll watch how it develops in New York. What we can say now is that, in preliminary exit poll data, there are fewer values voters than usual in New York, and more focused on bringing change and on someone who tells it like it is.
Caution: Exit poll results this evening may change significantly after 9 p.m.
This is because polling places in 50 of the state’s counties – outside the New York City area and Buffalo – opened at noon. People in those counties with day jobs can’t vote until after work, so they won’t be included in early exit poll results.
We don’t know if this will change the post-9 p.m. exit poll data, but it could. So consider the data that are available from 5-9 p.m. as especially preliminary, and check back for updates.
