MSNBC.. How Donald Trump could shut down an open convention

[mystery-ak]

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/how-donald-trump-could-shut-down-open-convention

 How Donald Trump could shut down an open convention
04/11/16 05:37 PM—Updated 04/11/16 05:40 PM

By Steve Kornacki

A contested Republican convention – the first in 40 years –  may well be where the GOP race ends up; this is the first time since 1976 that genuine uncertainty has endured this deep into the presidential election process. But there’s one aspect that’s gone unnoticed and could silence the open convention chatter: Donald Trump may have an ace in the hole with Pennsylvania’s unbound delegates that could lift him past that magic delegate number of 1,237 by the end of the primary season.

Trump has had a tough few weeks, suffering a lopsided loss in Wisconsin and finding himself embarrassingly out-organized in Colorado. Still, he leads the Republican pack with 756 delegates, with Sen. Ted Cruz sitting in second with 545 and Gov. John Kasich and Sen. Marco Rubio (who by suspending his campaign retained many of his delegates) far back. And there’s more good news: The next six GOP contests will be staged on decidedly Trump-friendly turf. He’ll be the heavy favorite in all of them, starting in New York next week.

It wouldn’t be unreasonable for Trump’s share of the delegates in these contests to look something like this:

New York (4/19, 95 delegates): 85

Pennsylvania (4/26, 17 delegates*): 17

Maryland (4/26, 38 delegates): 32

Delaware (4/26, 16 delegates): 16

Connecticut (4/26, 28 delegates): 20

Rhode Island (4/26, 19 delegates): 10

The asterisk you see there represents Trump’s potential ace in the hole – more on that later. But for now, this would bring his delegate total to 936 heading into May. Things would get trickier then, with Indiana next up on May 3. There are arguments for why Cruz should win it and why Trump will. Given the state’s delegate distribution rules, the difference of just a few points could be huge. With a narrow win, Trump would be poised to gain at least 42 of Indiana’s 57 delegates. With a narrow loss, he could be in the single digits. This makes Indiana a real wild card in Trump’s quest for 1,237.

continued

[Frank Cannon]

It wouldn’t be unreasonable for Trump’s share of the delegates in these contests to look something like this:

Actually it would.

[jmyrlefuller]

Then there’s this: A new poll shows Trump winning Pennsylvania overwhelmingly, 48 percent, to 22 for Kasich and 20 for Cruz. If that holds, then the pressure to keep their word will be intense on those unbound delegates who are now pledging to honor the will of the voters.

If Trump does not have a majority in those districts, the pressure won't be nearly as much, and in fact, both sides of the argument will be pressuring those delegates quite strongly.

[Bill Cipher]

The NY sample is unreasonable.  Most of NY's delegates are chosen by congressional district, with each district having 3 delegates.  In order to get all 3 in a given district Trump would have to get more than 50% of the vote in that district, something he has had a hard time doing anywhere.  If Trump gets 50% or less, but more than 20%, and if Cruz gets less than Trump, but more than 20%, then Trump would get 2 delegates and Cruz would get 1.  There are 14 state-wide delegates, which again only go all to the winner if the winner has more than 50% (otherwise they go proportionately).  Even if we assume Trump gets more than 50% of NY statewide, that only gives him 14 delegates.  There are a total of 27 districts in NY.