Poll: Denying Trump nomination would cost GOP in November

[Dexter]

You cannot be both pro-Trump and #NeverHillary.

I disagree.

It makes absolutely zero sense.

What if I have no interest in the other candidates?

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

I disagree.

What if I have no interest in the other candidates?

I guess it's possible to like Trump more than you hate Hillary. Vote Trump then. Just know that he has no chance in the general. None.

[Mesaclone]

I guess it's possible to like Trump more than you hate Hillary. Vote Trump then. Just know that he has no chance in the general. None.

Who knew you doubled as a fortune-teller. If you're not, than your simply making it up, as not even professional analysts like Nate Silver, Sabato and other would even consider making such "certain" assertions. Guess you know more than everyone else, right?

Also, spare us citing horse race polls and "performance amongst identity group" polls...they mean little at this stage because public opinion is notoriously malleable at this stage of an election cycle. After the conventions, than they may have SOME predictive value.

The reality is that there is only one viable way to win at this point...and that is for the party to rally around WHOMEVER wins the nomination, be that Trump or Cruz.

[Bill Cipher]

Who knew you doubled as a fortune-teller. If you're not, than your simply making it up, as not even professional analysts like Nate Silver, Sabato and other would even consider making such "certain" assertions. Guess you know more than everyone else, right?

Also, spare us citing horse race polls and "performance amongst identity group" polls...they mean little at this stage because public opinion is notoriously malleable at this stage of an election cycle. After the conventions, than they may have SOME predictive value.

The reality is that there is only one viable way to win at this point...and that is for the party to rally around WHOMEVER wins the nomination.

Why don't you spare us the holier-than-thou?

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Also, spare us citing horse race polls and "performance amongst identity group" polls...they mean little at this stage. After the conventions, than they may have SOME predictive value.

Favorability rankings matter now, absolutely. And people hate Trump. White men hate Trump. White women hate Trump. Minorities hate Trump. Millennials hate Trump. Everyone hates Trump.

It's great to know that you'll consider polls to be valid after the convention, when it will be too late.

You're just talking out of your ass. I have mounds of data to back up my position, you have "your gut".

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

(WASHINGTON) — For Americans of nearly every race, gender, political persuasion and location, disdain for Donald Trump runs deep, saddling the Republican front-runner with unprecedented unpopularity as he tries to overcome recent campaign setbacks.

Seven in 10 people, including close to half of Republican voters, have an unfavorable view of Trump, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. It’s an opinion shared by majorities of men and women; young and old; conservatives, moderates and liberals; and whites, Hispanics and blacks — a devastatingly broad indictment of the billionaire businessman.

Even in the South, a region where Trump has won GOP primaries decisively, close to 70 percent view him unfavorably. And among whites without a college education, one of Trump’s most loyal voting blocs, 55 percent have a negative opinion.

[Mesaclone]

Favorability rankings matter now, absolutely. And people hate Trump. White men hate Trump. White women hate Trump. Minorities hate Trump. Millennials hate Trump. Everyone hates Trump.

It's great to know that you'll consider polls to be valid after the convention, when it will be too late.

You're just talking out of your ass. I have mounds of data to back up my position, you have "your gut".

So everyone hates him, and yet he is soundly trouncing Ted Cruz. What does that say about Cruz?

And its not that I consider polls this far out to be non-predictive, its that they historically ARE non-predictive at this stage. Otherwise, we'd be looking at President Romney running for his second term...as Gallup and Rasmussen showed him ahead of Obama in mid-April of 2012...and how'd Carter's 2nd term go as he was killing Reagan by double digits at this point? And the Mondale presidency sure went well, didn't it?

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Of course I'm talking to the guy who thought there were "Dem plants" on the forum and then after 40 pages couldn't produce a single one.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

So everyone hates him, and yet he is soundly trouncing Ted Cruz. What does that say about Cruz?

He has effectively split the anti-Trump vote between Kasich and Cruz. Add up their numbers, Trump gets "trounced".

And its not that I consider polls this far out to be non-predictive, its that they historically ARE non-predictive at this stage.

Any evidence for that assertion?

Favorability is a huge factor in Presidential elections. And everyone hates Trump. How will he overcome that? People who everybody hate just don't get elected.

Not everyone hated Reagan in 1980.

[LottieDah]

What you don't account for is that there will be absolutely no enthusiasm for Hitlary. It will be enough vote loss to offset any Trump supporters who don't vote, which realistically can be not factored in because most of them have never voted before.

Considering Cruz polls even with Hitlary and generally the GOP is under counted in head to head polls, it is still totally doable to give Hitlary her second WH loss.

[Mesaclone]

He has effectively split the anti-Trump vote between Kasich and Cruz. Add up their numbers, Trump gets "trounced".

Any evidence for that assertion?

Favorability is a huge factor in Presidential elections. And everyone hates Trump. How will he overcome that? People who everybody hate just don't get elected.

Not everyone hated Reagan in 1980.

Do you actually think that every Cruz and Kasich voter goes to each other if one of them were to drop out? Really...it would be scary if you actually thought that. Truth is, a good chunk of Cruz voters would slide over to Trump, and a significant though smaller portion of Kasich voters would do the same.

As for citing cases in which polls were way off this far out...I added some into the last post just for your perusal. There are many more examples of course. As mentioned above, Reagan trailed Carter by around 12% at this point...and crushed him in November...like Trump, Reagan was seen as a bit of an outsider and many questioned his "liberal" Hollywood roots. Likewise, both Trump and Reagan cast aside the restraints of political correctness and reached out to voters with a charisma and frankness that supercedes biased media narratives.

[Luis Gonzalez]

Actually, I will be voting FOR Cruz.

You're voting against the GOPe. You've said so dozens of times in them forum.

Cruz is the conduit for your anti-establishment vote.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

As for citing cases in which polls were way off this far out...I added some into the last post just for your perusal. There are many more examples of course. As mentioned above, Reagan trailed Carter by around 12% at this point...and crushed him in November...like Trump, Reagan was seen as a bit of an outsider and many questioned his "liberal" Hollywood roots. Likewise, both Trump and Reagan cast aside the restraints of political correctness and reached out to voters with a charisma and frankness that supercedes biased media narratives.

People didn't hate Reagan nowhere near as bad as Trump. Not even close. You cannot win in an election if people hate you. You cannot win dog catcher.

[sinkspur]

So everyone hates him, and yet he is soundly trouncing Ted Cruz. What does that say about Cruz?

And its not that I consider polls this far out to be non-predictive, its that they historically ARE non-predictive at this stage. Otherwise, we'd be looking at President Romney running for his second term...as Gallup and Rasmussen showed him ahead of Obama in mid-April of 2012...and how'd Carter's 2nd term go as he was killing Reagan by double digits at this point? And the Mondale presidency sure went well, didn't it?

Wrong. Romney never led Obama at any point in the run up to 2012.

[Bill Cipher]

So everyone hates him, and yet he is soundly trouncing Ted Cruz. What does that say about Cruz?

And its not that I consider polls this far out to be non-predictive, its that they historically ARE non-predictive at this stage. Otherwise, we'd be looking at President Romney running for his second term...as Gallup and Rasmussen showed him ahead of Obama in mid-April of 2012...and how'd Carter's 2nd term go as he was killing Reagan by double digits at this point? And the Mondale presidency sure went well, didn't it?

Another comparison to Reagan?  Please.  That alone makes everything else you say suspect.

Trump is only somewhat ahead of Cruz, and only with the very small group of republicans who are committed enough to take the time to vote in primaries and attend caucuses.  And even out of that group, he has utterly alienated at least a third of hard core republicans.

And amongst the general population he is an utter pariah.  Outside of primary voters I have heard almost uniformly negative opinions of Trump.  He may not hand the presidency to Clinton in a landslide, but he will almost certainly lose to her.

[Luis Gonzalez]

Insanity. Its that simple.

I am huge Trump advocate, and see Cruz as a sanctimonious evangelical kook...but I will vote for Cruz in a heartbeat if he is the nominee. Likewise, any Cruz supporter who won't do the same if Trump wins is nuts. There is no rational case that can be made that this nation is better off with Hillary than with ANY of the GOP candidates...ANY.

Hillary will not build a wall or work to halt illegal immigration.
Hillary will appoint radical leftists to the court (probably 2-3 of them)
Hillary will not rebuild our national defense.

Any and every GOP candidate, including Trump and Cruz, will be on the opposite side of the 3 issues above. Even if you feel unsure that Trump won't follow through on these issues....you KNOW Hillary will. For god's sakes, its better to have a shot at achieving the upside of these issues over the certainty that Hillary will bring on these topics.

If we lose this election because of idiots in BOTH camps who won't vote for WHOMEVER the nominee is...we deserve to have the nation wrecked. And it will be...and you can blame the NeverTrump and NeverCruz folks directly.

People in our party need to put on their big boy/girl pants and get over their hurt feelings...this election may set our course for DECADES. We can't afford to act on emotion. Anyone with a brain and a smidgeon of conservative opinion should vote for an 800 pound hermaphrodite gorilla if it was the GOP candidate running against her....because that gorilla would do less harm to this nation than she will.

Wake up, people...we, collectively, cannot win this thing if we bust out into NeverTrump and NeverCruz camps.

It isn't that Trum is not a conservative, the man isn't even a Republican.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

I should run my cat for President. Sure he has no support right now, but neither did Reagan. And he won!

I should run my X for President. Sure he has no support right now, but neither did Reagan. And he won!

where X = whatever you want.

[Bill Cipher]

I should run my cat for President. Sure he has no support right now, but neither did Reagan. And he won!

I should run my X for President. Sure he has no support right now, but neither did Reagan. And he won!

where X = whatever you want.

Good point.  The democrats seem to be doing that: I should run Clinton for President.  Sure he has no support right now, but neither did Reagan.  And he won!

[ABX]

Trump isn't being 'denied' anything. He is blowing it, either by design or incompetence. The fact is, Trump is absolutely failing at setting up state organizations. He is winning a primary, then he just leaves. He is breaking his first promise- to be a candidate. This would be akin to him winning the bid for a building contract, then never actually building anything. Winning a primary doesn't mean you are done, it means your work is just beginning. You have to set up precinct offices and work with the local and state party to ensure you have a say in the delegates. This is also the infrastructure he would use if he wins the nomination to compete against Hillary. If he doesn't do this, he deserves to lose the delegates because he is breaking his promise to the voters to be their candidate. He can complain and cry all he wants, but the fact is, he is the one who is blowing it.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Trump isn't being 'denied' anything. He is blowing it, either by design or incompetence. The fact is, Trump is absolutely failing at setting up state organizations. He is winning a primary, then he just leaves. He is breaking his first promise- to be a candidate. This would be akin to him winning the bid for a building contract, then never actually building anything. Winning a primary doesn't mean you are done, it means your work is just beginning. You have to set up precinct offices and work with the local and state party to ensure you have a say in the delegates. This is also the infrastructure he would use if he wins the nomination to compete against Hillary. If he doesn't do this, he deserves to lose the delegates because he is breaking his promise to the voters to be their candidate. He can complain and cry all he wants, but the fact is, he is the one who is blowing it.

He's a bad manager, he picked Lewandowski, probably because he's a throne-sniffer. And people hate the guy and he's totally incompetent. So how would a Trump presidency be any better? He'd put his own yes men in charge, and Trump would fail at everything.

[Mesaclone]

I should run my cat for President. Sure he has no support right now, but neither did Reagan. And he won!

I should run my X for President. Sure he has no support right now, but neither did Reagan. And he won!

where X = whatever you want.

Depends.

Does your cat want to stop illegal immigration, fix our national defense and reinvigorate the economy? If so, he'd have my vote against Hillary Clinton. You seem to miss the point, intentionally I'd guess. The point being that polls this far out are very poor indicators of how a general election will go...that's essentially an axiom amongst pollsters. That may be an inconvenient fact for your argument, but it is the case, nonetheless.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Depends.

Does your cat want to stop illegal immigration, fix our national defense and reinvigorate the economy? If so, he'd have my vote against Hillary Clinton. You seem to miss the point, intentionally I'd guess. The point being that polls this far out are very poor indicators of how a general election will go...that's essentially an axiom amongst pollsters. That may be an inconvenient fact for your argument, but it is the case, nonetheless.

Polls indicate one fact: people hate Trump. He has high name recognition and they hate him. He's not Reagan.

You just do not overcome that in 4 months.

[Mesaclone]

Trump isn't being 'denied' anything. He is blowing it, either by design or incompetence. The fact is, Trump is absolutely failing at setting up state organizations. He is winning a primary, then he just leaves. He is breaking his first promise- to be a candidate. This would be akin to him winning the bid for a building contract, then never actually building anything. Winning a primary doesn't mean you are done, it means your work is just beginning. You have to set up precinct offices and work with the local and state party to ensure you have a say in the delegates. This is also the infrastructure he would use if he wins the nomination to compete against Hillary. If he doesn't do this, he deserves to lose the delegates because he is breaking his promise to the voters to be their candidate. He can complain and cry all he wants, but the fact is, he is the one who is blowing it.

Let me summarize...because what you say is mostly correct...he's not a political professional. I take that is a VERY good sign. Nonetheless, you are correct in your overall assessment that he has done poorly on the ground in the delegate stealing fight, Trump NOT being a politician has its negatives...no doubt about it....and this explains why he has been slow to put together delegate lobbying structures (let's be clear that these structures are being used by Cruz to override the verdict of state voters). Still, not being a politician is a good thing when taken in whole, though you've done a good job of pointing out the shortcomings that regular citizens face when jumping into politics.

[Bill Cipher]

Depends.

Does your cat want to stop illegal immigration, fix our national defense and reinvigorate the economy? If so, he'd have my vote against Hillary Clinton. You seem to miss the point, intentionally I'd guess. The point being that polls this far out are very poor indicators of how a general election will go...that's essentially an axiom amongst pollsters. That may be an inconvenient fact for your argument, but it is the case, nonetheless.

WTF's cat has a better chance of doing those things than does STrump.

[Mesaclone]

Polls indicate one fact: people hate Trump. He has high name recognition and they hate him. He's not Reagan.

You just do not overcome that in 4 months.

Well...its actually almost 7 months. And yes, you do overcome it, because surprisingly few Americans are focused on politics at this stage. Most tune in AFTER the conventions...though given the nature of what this year's conventions will be, you may have a big uptick in viewership. Further, his "unfavorables" are within striking distance of Mrs. Clinton which very much levels the field...and lets note that Ted's are quite high as well.