Poll: Denying Trump nomination would cost GOP in November

[mystery-ak]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/gop-primaries/275715-poll-third-of-trump-supporters-will-leave-gop-if-hes-blocked

April 09, 2016, 09:28 am
Poll: Denying Trump nomination would cost GOP in November

By Harper Neidig

Blocking Donald Trump from the Republican presidential nomination with a contested convention would spell disaster for the GOP, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found Saturday.

One-third of Republicans Trump supporters said they would not support the party in the general election if the businessman is blocked from the nomination. They said they would instead vote Democrat, vote third-party or sit out the election.

Sixty-six percent said they would support the GOP's nominee anyway.

A contested convention could hurt the GOP in November no matter what, the poll found. Fifty-eight percent of Trump supporters said they would stay with the party, while 16 percent would leave and 26 percent said they didn't know.

The poll surveyed 468 Republican Trump supporters and has a margin of error of 5.3 percentage points.

[Frank Cannon]

One-third of Republicans Trump supporters said they would not support the party in the general election if the businessman is blocked from the nomination. They said they would instead vote Democrat, vote third-party or sit out the election.

Sixty-six percent said they would support the GOP's nominee anyway.

Ok. So if Trump doesn't get the nomination a 1/3 won't vote and if he does get the nomination a 1/3 won't vote.

Doesn't really matter what happens then.

[jmyrlefuller]

Political hostage-taking.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Ok. So if Trump doesn't get the nomination a 1/3 won't vote and if he does get the nomination a 1/3 won't vote.

Doesn't really matter what happens then.

To me Cruz is the best option. This will lose some Trumpkins but not as many as a "GOPe" candidate who is not even in the race.

Need to hold the Senate at all costs if Hillary wins. If they put another Sotomayor in there she will do damage for years.

Who knows how long Bader Ginsberg will live. Not to actively wish for her demise or anything. 

[Frank Cannon]

To me Cruz is the best option. This will lose some Trumpkins but not as many as a "GOPe" candidate who is not even in the race.

Need to hold the Senate at all costs if Hillary wins. If they put another Sotomayor in there she will do damage for years.

Who knows how long Bader Ginsberg will live. Not to actively wish for her demise or anything. 

That's where this boils down to. It doesn't matter who wins the nomination as far as GOP voters are concerned. There is the smae vote loss either way. It does matter in the general with independents, women and young people who all hate Trump in comparison to Cruz. Cruz is actually very strong with young people oddly enough.

[Bill Cipher]

To me Cruz is the best option. This will lose some Trumpkins but not as many as a "GOPe" candidate who is not even in the race.

Need to hold the Senate at all costs if Hillary wins. If they put another Sotomayor in there she will do damage for years.

Who knows how long Bader Ginsberg will live. Not to actively wish for her demise or anything. 

Sotomayor is not as bad as Kagan.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Maybe when Clinton nominates the first transgender Muslim socialist then the Trumpkins will realize their mistake?

Probably not.

[Luis Gonzalez]

Ok. So if Trump doesn't get the nomination a 1/3 won't vote and if he does get the nomination a 1/3 won't vote.

Doesn't really matter what happens then.

I mistakenly posted this on a TCG thread earlier.

I'll repost here where I sincerely hope it will stand.

You cannot be both pro-Trump and #NeverHillary. It makes absolutely zero sense.

Supporting a candidate who has consistently shown that he will lose to Hillary (and Sanders) in a General Election solely based on the hope that somehow the polls are wrong on this, or that they will change is also illogical. The one thing that Trump supporters have to agree with me on, is that polling has been very accurate this year... Trump had the leads that the polling data said that he had.

The few instances were the polling has been wrong didn't favor Trump (Iowa), and other than that, the changes in the recent polls measuring the General Election are not going Trump's way, with both Clinton and Sanders increasing their lead over Trump in every single poll.

I'M WITH TRUMP = WIN WITH HILLARY.

Republican convention delegates are faced with a situation where not selecting the man who clearly loses to either Democrat on the ticket will mean that perhaps millions of Trump supporters will stay home and not vote in the General Election, thus ensuring that either Democrat on the ticket wins.

Catch-22.

Hillary wins this election.

Sanders won't get the nomination. The DNC Super Delegates are there to make sure that doesn't happen.

The FBI will not indict her. Obama is there to make sure that doesn't happen.

It's been my contention, nearly from the day that Trump declared his candidacy, that he was simply a stalking horse for Hillary Clinton, and as I see it, he's done his job well.

Whatever else the Clintons may be, they are masters at political chess.

Hillary wins this election.

[Frank Cannon]

Hillary wins this election.

What you don't account for is that there will be absolutely no enthusiasm for Hitlary. It will be enough vote loss to offset any Trump supporters who don't vote, which realistically can be not factored in because most of them have never voted before.

Considering Cruz polls even with Hitlary and generally the GOP is under counted in head to head polls, it is still totally doable to give Hitlary her second WH loss.

[Luis Gonzalez]

What you don't account for is that there will be absolutely no enthusiasm for Hitlary. It will be enough vote loss to offset any Trump supporters who don't vote, which realistically can be not factored in because most of them have never voted before.

Considering Cruz polls even with Hitlary and generally the GOP is under counted in head to head polls, it is still totally doable to give Hitlary her second WH loss.

There's no one voting FOR anything this cycle. Everyone is voting against something

The vote against Trump overcomes the lack of enthusiasm for Hillary.

[libertybele]

There's no one voting FOR anything this cycle. Everyone is voting against something

The vote against Trump overcomes the lack of enthusiasm for Hillary.

Actually, I will be voting FOR Cruz.

[HonestJohn]

One third of the party walks if Trump is the nominee.  One third walks if Trumpo is not the nominee.

All this means is that the Republican nominee, whomever it is, will only take two thirds of the total GOP vote.

So that means a loss in votes is a 'baked-in' event, with no way to change.  There is no point in worrying about it, as nothing can be done about it.

So, with that in mind, we can turn to events that we *CAN* affect.

Choosing a candidate that keeps the core conservative ideals alive... or picking one that destroys them.
Choosing a candidate that does not completely alienate all peoples in our country... or picking one hated by all.

That said, with the baked-in loss in votes, there is no path that I can see for any Republican candidate to win in November.

---

Personally, I don't like Cruz, as he doesn't compromise.  To me, that's essential to the functioning of any republic.  We've seen precious little in the last eight years and it's a disaster.

But Trump is so much worse, he makes Cruz look like Henry Clay ("the Great Compromiser") himself.  He doesn't just endanger conservative values, he betrays the very principles America was built upon.

[Chosen Daughter]

Ok. So if Trump doesn't get the nomination a 1/3 won't vote and if he does get the nomination a 1/3 won't vote.

Doesn't really matter what happens then.

Yes I am a 1/3 if he did get the nomination.  Won't no matter what.

[A-Lert]

Ok. So if Trump doesn't get the nomination a 1/3 won't vote and if he does get the nomination a 1/3 won't vote.

Doesn't really matter what happens then.

Exactly why the Republican Party is the stupid party.

[Rivergirl]

Oh I am sooo scairt.   
Hah, threats don't work on me.  Lived long enough to see what happened in Germany when the everyday citizens got carried away. 

[Mesaclone]

Insanity. Its that simple.

I am huge Trump advocate, and see Cruz as a sanctimonious evangelical kook...but I will vote for Cruz in a heartbeat if he is the nominee. Likewise, any Cruz supporter who won't do the same if Trump wins is nuts. There is no rational case that can be made that this nation is better off with Hillary than with ANY of the GOP candidates...ANY.

Hillary will not build a wall or work to halt illegal immigration.
Hillary will appoint radical leftists to the court (probably 2-3 of them)
Hillary will not rebuild our national defense.

Any and every GOP candidate, including Trump and Cruz, will be on the opposite side of the 3 issues above. Even if you feel unsure that Trump won't follow through on these issues....you KNOW Hillary will. For god's sakes, its better to have a shot at achieving the upside of these issues over the certainty that Hillary will bring on these topics.

If we lose this election because of idiots in BOTH camps who won't vote for WHOMEVER the nominee is...we deserve to have the nation wrecked. And it will be...and you can blame the NeverTrump and NeverCruz folks directly.

People in our party need to put on their big boy/girl pants and get over their hurt feelings...this election may set our course for DECADES. We can't afford to act on emotion. Anyone with a brain and a smidgeon of conservative opinion should vote for an 800 pound hermaphrodite gorilla if it was the GOP candidate running against her....because that gorilla would do less harm to this nation than she will.

Wake up, people...we, collectively, cannot win this thing if we bust out into NeverTrump and NeverCruz camps.

[Mesaclone]

Oh I am sooo scairt.   
Hah, threats don't work on me.  Lived long enough to see what happened in Germany when the everyday citizens got carried away.

Newsflash: Hitler was a National SOCIALIST so if that kind of threat ever arises here...and there is nothing remotely in that vein today...it will come from the far left and its penchant to seek control over every aspect of our lives.

[A-Lert]

Insanity. Its that simple.

I am huge Trump advocate, and see Cruz as a sanctimonious evangelical kook...but I will vote for Cruz in a heartbeat if he is the nominee. Likewise, any Cruz supporter who won't do the same if Trump wins is nuts. There is no rational case that can be made that this nation is better off with Hillary than with ANY of the GOP candidates...ANY.

Hillary will not build a wall or work to halt illegal immigration.
Hillary will appoint radical leftists to the court (probably 2-3 of them)
Hillary will not rebuild our national defense.

Any and every GOP candidate, including Trump and Cruz, will be on the opposite side of the 3 issues above. Even if you feel unsure that Trump won't follow through on these issues....you KNOW Hillary will. For god's sakes, its better to have a shot at achieving the upside of these issues over the certainty that Hillary will bring on these topics.

If we lose this election because of idiots in BOTH camps who won't vote for WHOMEVER the nominee is...we deserve to have the nation wrecked. And it will be...and you can blame the NeverTrump and NeverCruz folks directly.

People in our party need to put on their big boy/girl pants and get over their hurt feelings...this election may set our course for DECADES. We can't afford to act on emotion. Anyone with a brain and a smidgeon of conservative opinion should vote for an 800 pound hermaphrodite gorilla if it was the GOP candidate running against her....because that gorilla would do less harm to this nation than she will.

Wake up, people...we, collectively, cannot win this thing if we bust out into NeverTrump and NeverCruz camps.

Common sense has become a rare commodity in the stupid party.

[Rivergirl]

A proud idiot  And thanks for suggesting that anyone who doesn't vote for your hero is nuts.

[Mesaclone]

A proud idiot  And thanks for suggesting that anyone who doesn't vote for your hero is nuts.

Not what I said. Feel free to criticize my comments, but try to actually criticize what I actually said.

I said we are ALL idiots, on the Cruz or Trump side, if we are so obstinate that we will hold to a NeverTrump or NeverCruz position as we march Hillary Clinton into office. I admit that is strong language, but people in this party on both sides...and in the establishment...MUST put their hurt feelings aside and prepare to get behind WHOMEVER wins. If we do not, Hillary is president...and that disaster exceeds every negative scenario that could arise with the election of ANY of the remaining GOP candidates.

As for being my hero, I was a Rubio guy right up until he dropped out. So if being my 2nd choice makes Trump my hero...well, I guess you got me there.

[Mesaclone]

A proud idiot  And thanks for suggesting that anyone who doesn't vote for your hero is nuts.

That kind of pride is what will put Hillary in the White House...and that is an almost immeasurable loss for this nation. It saddens me, actually, that this primary has made so many of us forget where the real danger to our nation and our future lies.

[Jazzhead]

I mistakenly posted this on a TCG thread earlier.

I'll repost here where I sincerely hope it will stand.

You cannot be both pro-Trump and #NeverHillary. It makes absolutely zero sense.

Supporting a candidate who has consistently shown that he will lose to Hillary (and Sanders) in a General Election solely based on the hope that somehow the polls are wrong on this, or that they will change is also illogical. The one thing that Trump supporters have to agree with me on, is that polling has been very accurate this year... Trump had the leads that the polling data said that he had.

The few instances were the polling has been wrong didn't favor Trump (Iowa), and other than that, the changes in the recent polls measuring the General Election are not going Trump's way, with both Clinton and Sanders increasing their lead over Trump in every single poll.

I'M WITH TRUMP = WIN WITH HILLARY.

Republican convention delegates are faced with a situation where not selecting the man who clearly loses to either Democrat on the ticket will mean that perhaps millions of Trump supporters will stay home and not vote in the General Election, thus ensuring that either Democrat on the ticket wins.

Catch-22.

Hillary wins this election.

Sanders won't get the nomination. The DNC Super Delegates are there to make sure that doesn't happen.

The FBI will not indict her. Obama is there to make sure that doesn't happen.

It's been my contention, nearly from the day that Trump declared his candidacy, that he was simply a stalking horse for Hillary Clinton, and as I see it, he's done his job well.

Whatever else the Clintons may be, they are masters at political chess.

Hillary wins this election.

I agree with everything except the last.   There's one GOP candidate who beats Hillary in all those same polls, and he's still in the race.    Get past the first ballot and Kasich can present the most compelling case, the case that save the party's (and conservatism's) ass.

#NeverHillary?    #ThenKasich.   

[Mesaclone]

I agree with everything except the last.   There's one GOP candidate who beats Hillary in all those same polls, and he's still in the race.    Get past the first ballot and Kasich can present the most compelling case, the case that save the party's (and conservatism's) ass.

#NeverHillary?    #ThenKasich.

Actually, there are likely a dozen GOP candidates (out of the original 17 primary guys/gals) who could beat Hillary...if the party rallies behind them. Without that, none of them...including Kasich...can win. She is a weak and vulnerable candidate who can't even put away a Socialist nutjob. But the bigger point is that the polls you cite matching up with Hillary are of no value...they tell you almost nothing about who could or could not defeat her. Horse race polls at this stage are notoriously and consistently wrong...almost meaningless as predictors...and again, I cite Reagan in 1980 as the prime example.

The best predictor of capability to beat the Dem nominee is how well the GOP nominee is poised to bring in Reagan Democrats and center-to-right leaning Independents.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Actually, there are likely a dozen GOP candidates (out of the original 17 primary guys/gals) who could beat Hillary...if the party rallies behind them. Without that, none of them...including Kasich...can win. She is a weak and vulnerable candidate who can't even put away a Socialist nutjob. But the bigger point is that the polls you cite matching up with Hillary are of no value...they tell you almost nothing about who could or could not defeat her. Horse race polls at this stage are notoriously and consistently wrong...almost meaningless as predictors...and again, I cite Reagan in 1980 as the prime example.

The best predictor of capability to beat the Dem nominee is how well the GOP nominee is poised to bring in Reagan Democrats and center-to-right leaning Independents.

Reagan Democrats? No such thing anymore.

[Bill Cipher]

Actually, there are likely a dozen GOP candidates (out of the original 17 primary guys/gals) who could beat Hillary...if the party rallies behind them. Without that, none of them...including Kasich...can win. She is a weak and vulnerable candidate who can't even put away a Socialist nutjob. But the bigger point is that the polls you cite matching up with Hillary are of no value...they tell you almost nothing about who could or could not defeat her. Horse race polls at this stage are notoriously and consistently wrong...almost meaningless as predictors...and again, I cite Reagan in 1980 as the prime example.

The best predictor of capability to beat the Dem nominee is how well the GOP nominee is poised to bring in Reagan Democrats and center-to-right leaning Independents.