http://www.nationalreview.com/node/433295/print Why Wisconsin Is a Better Fit for Cruz than for Trump
By John Fund — March 27, 2016
Wisconsin has outsized importance now as the only Republican presidential primary until New York’s on April 19. If Donald Trump wins, he will be in a good position to win the GOP nomination on the first ballot. If he loses in Wisconsin on April 5, his momentum will take a real hit.
On the surface, Wisconsin looks like classic Trump Territory. It’s an open primary, and Trump polls better when independents are allowed to vote in GOP primaries. It’s quite a blue-collar state, with 57 percent of those who voted in the 2012 primary lacking a college degree. A relatively high 62 percent also are not Evangelical Christians.
But the only two public polls taken in the last month show Ted Cruz with a narrow lead.
A big factor is Governor Scott Walker’s reshaping of conservatism in the state since he beat back union opponents of his reforms in 2011 and survived a recall attempt in 2012. Mark Block, a political strategist, says that the state’s conservatives expect substantive policy debates and are sophisticated in evaluating candidates.
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