Some republicans expected Lindsey Graham to beat Hillary. Some republicans expected Jeb Bush to still be in the race. Some Republicans expected Trump to fade at 15%...you know where I'm going with this.
No not really, you are looking in the rear view mirror and I am looking forward down the road, I am concerned about wining the game and you seem to be concerned about winning a state.
Trump has got a wining hand for the nomination and at the very best he will be extremely hard to beat either in delegates or if brokered the GOP public sway should put him over the top. That is merely a battle, its the war we have to win.
IMO the way Trump wins the war is to pick the right VP. Trump is not pulling from deep in the GOP, but if he can pick a solid VP and think they can run the ball all the way.