Flashback March 1980: Reagan Faces Probable Defeat – Trails Carter by 15 Points

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http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/03/337295/

Flashback March 1980: Reagan Faces Probable Defeat – Trails Carter by 15 Points

Jim Hoft Mar 20th, 2016 10:38 pm 251 Comment


Republican elites are very concerned this year that Donald Trump cannot beat Hillary Clinton or Socialist Bernie Sanders in a general election.

You hear the establishment types talk about it nearly every day on the FOX News Channel.

For his part, Donald Trump says he has not “even started” on Hillary Clinton.

The elites also worried about Ronald Reagan’s chances back in March 1980.
The CSMonitor reported, via Free Republic:

The nation’s Republicans are working against the clock to answer two key questions: Can conservative Ronald Reagan possibly attract enough independent and Democratic votes to win in November?

An if he is likely to lose, has former President Gerald Ford time enough to challenge him for the GOP nomination?

The consensus among political experts is that time has probably already run out for Gerald Ford, though he still appears the stronger choice to beat Jimmy Carter in November.

But some experts caution: Don’t count Ronald Reagan out as a national candidate for the fall. He is not, they say, “a McGovern or a Goldwater” — fringe candidates who led their parties to one-sided defeats in 1972 and 1964. Intellectuals don’t want to take him seriously, but he does well with working-class voters. He would take the West, challenge President Carter in the South, and do well in the pivotal Midwest states like Ohio and Illinois, whose southern regions titled toward Carter in 1976, they say.

Back in March 1980 the establishment the establishment said the same thing about Ronald Reagan.They said he could never defeat Jimmy Carter.

He was too divisive.

Reagan came back and won a 44 state landslide.

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Major differences between 1980 and 2016.

Iran held over 60 American hostages for 444 days.  Carter attempted a rescue in summer of 1980 that failed disastrously; American troops killed.

Commercial interest rates in the summer of 1980 were at 17-18% with the inflation rate at 13%.  The economy was in the pits, with a very weak dollar and the price of gold nearing a record of $980/ounce.

Hispanics voted at a rate of 4% of the population (they are now 12% of voters).  The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in December of 1979.

Ronald Reagan had a coherent political philosophy that he articulated from the day he began running for president.  It revolved around three things:

1)  Defeating Soviet Communism
2)  Defeating inflation and reviving the economy by lowering marginal tax rates
3)  Restoring faith in America by Americans

 What is Trump's political philosophy:

1)  Build a wall
2)  Impose a 35% tariff on imported goods, thus raising taxes on Americans on those items
3)  Restoring faith in America by deporting illegal aliens, keeping foreign Muslims out of the country, and killing the wives and children of terrorists.

Any comparison between now and 1980 or  between Reagan and Trump is risible.

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"But Reagan" is the catchall rebuttal for all sorts of nonsense and politicians, like Trump, who simply cannot win. I seem to recall Rush doing a "but Reagan" when Herman Cain's candidacy descended into the ridiculous.

Differences? Reagan was likable by the general public and Reagan already won 2 elections.

Trump is greatly disliked by the general public and has yet to win a single real (non-primary) election.

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"But Reagan" is the catchall rebuttal for all sorts of nonsense and politicians, like Trump, who simply cannot win. I seem to recall Rush doing a "but Reagan" when Herman Cain's candidacy descended into the ridiculous.

Differences? Reagan was likable by the general public and Reagan already won 2 elections.

Trump is greatly disliked by the general public and has yet to win a single real (non-primary) election.

You're right.  The main electoral factor is likability.  Reagan was always pleasant, even with his opponents.

Trump is rude, nasty, vulgar and hateful, especially to his opponents.   His unfavorables are the highest ever recorded.

Now, Hillary is not very likable either, so the  likability quotient will be relative this time. 

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Reagan's unfavorable rating in March of 1980 was 35%.  Trump's is pushing 70%

http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/ICPSR/ssvd/studies/07812/datasets/0003/variables/V18?series=CBS+News%2FNew+York+Times+Poll+Series&dataset%5B0%5D=March+National+Interviews&paging.startRow=1