EMERSON POLL: TRUMP, CLINTON TROUNCING THEIR RIVALS IN NEW YORK; IN GENERAL ELECTION, HILLARY AND BERNIE LEAD THE DONALD

[aligncare]

EMERSON POLL: TRUMP, CLINTON TROUNCING THEIR RIVALS IN NEW YORK; IN GENERAL ELECTION, HILLARY AND BERNIE LEAD THE DONALD

BOSTON, MA – Buoyed by a string of decisive primary wins this past Tuesday, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump hold a commanding lead in New York State, where a victory in the April 19 primary could effectively seal the presidential nomination for both candidates.

With Marco Rubio out of the race, Trump leads his closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, by 52 points (64% to 12%). Rubio received 4% of the vote before suspending his campaign. Ohio Governor John Kasich earned just 1%, getting no bounce from his recent home-field victory in the Buckeye State. In a hypothetical, two-man matchup between Trump and Cruz, Trump leads 69% to 25%.

In the Democratic primary, Clinton is ahead of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders by 48 points, taking 71% of the vote to Sanders’s 23%. The former Secretary of State holds a massive advantage in key demographic groups, including men (66% to 29%), women (73% to 20%), African Americans (72% to 22%) and Hispanics (85% to 8%). Younger voters, ages 18-34, favor Sanders, but by a slimmer margin (53% to 40%) than in many primary states. Among all other age groups, Clinton dominates, leading by 45 points (ages 35-54), 50 points (ages 55-74), and 67 points (ages 75+).

Clinton and Sanders have similar favorability numbers with likely Democratic primary voters. Her favorable/unfavorable ratio is 82%/15% (+67); his is 63%/26% (+37). However Clinton garners far more loyalty: 85% of those who view her favorably plan to vote for her in the primary, while only 31% who have a favorable view of Sanders intend to vote for him.

Trump has the highest favorable ratings with GOP voters, 71%/23%, followed by Cruz at 52%/44% and Kasich at 54%/34%. Consistent with other primaries, Trump supporters are the most loyal, with 89% of those who see him favorably planning to cast their ballot for him. In contrast, only 21% of Republicans who have a favorable opinion of Cruz say they will vote for him.

Looking ahead to the general election, the two Democrats do equally well in a head-to-head matchup with Trump. Clinton (55% to 36%) and Sanders (53% to 36%) lead the reality show star by 19 and 17 points, respectively, while Cruz loses to Clinton by 31 points (61% to 30%).
Dissatisfaction with government (47%) and the state of the economy (29%) are the top two issues for Republican voters in the Empire State. Among Democrats, the foremost concerns are the economy, cited by 25%, and race relations, mentioned by 18%.

Caller ID
The Emerson College Polling Society poll was conducted from March 14-16, 2016. The GOP primary consisted of 298 likely primary voters, with a margin of error of +/-5.6%, and the Democratic primary consisted of 373 likely primary voters, with a margin of error of +/-5%. The General Election sample consisted of 768 likely general election voters, with a margin of error of +/-3.5%. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only and weighted by 2012 federal general election returns. The full methodology and results can be found at www.theecps.com.

[sinkspur]

So, Trump's boast that he could carry New York is baloney.  He won't carry New York and he won't carry a single northeastern state.

[Bill Cipher]

Nice poll.  If it's reliable, we will be inaugurating president Clinton or President Sanders in January no matter who the nominee is.  But more specifically, Trump won't beat Clinton.

[aligncare]

New York's primary is four weeks away. The general election is eight months from now. I'm not concerned with the general. Those numbers are meaningless this far out.

These numbers however are significant:

Donald Trump is positioned to take his home state of New York's April 19 primary, 64% to Ted Cruz's 12%.

Ted Cruz took his home state of Texas 43.8% to Donald Trump's 26.7%.

Ted Cruz couldn't break 44% in his home state. Donald Trump on the other hand, stands to break 60% in his home state.

The last time a Republican took New York was Ronald Reagan in 1984. Donald Trump stands to take New York in 2016.

[aligncare]

Trump leads his closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, in New York State, by 52 points (64% to 12%).

Who was the last Republican to win New York State? Ronald Reagan 1984.

Who stands a better than good chance of turning New York State red? Donald Trump 2016

[Right_in_Virginia]

Trump leads his closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, in New York State, by 52 points (64% to 12%).

Who was the last Republican to win New York State? Ronald Reagan 1984.

Who stands a better than good chance of turning New York State red?     Donald Trump 2016

 :thumbsup2:

[sinkspur]

Trump leads his closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, in New York State, by 52 points (64% to 12%).

Who was the last Republican to win New York State? Ronald Reagan 1984.

Who stands a better than good chance of turning New York State red? Donald Trump 2016

I'll put up a thousand dollars that will go to Myst-AK for the forum that says Trump will not win New York in the general.

Any takers?

[truth_seeker]

For the open minded and the intellectuals, take a look at "paradigm shifts" and "disruptive technologies" because conceptually they may explain in part, what is going on.

Republicans have complained for years, that their elected officials do not represent their views. Approval of Congress is single digits.

If you love or if you hate Donald Trump, you cannot dismiss the "disruption" he has introduced. Whether he wins or he loses, he will have probably also started some paradigm shifts.

For example, if he truly brings large numbers of new voters to the Republican side, that is significant.

Assuming he wins, and does something meaningful about curbing illegal immigration, reducing export of jobs and money, he will have made a bigger difference than any Republican since Reagan.

The status quo protecting GOP establishment seems to be having a new plan for how to stop him, almost every day.
 

[Bill Cipher]

I'll put up a thousand dollars that will go to Myst-AK for the forum that says Trump will not win New York in the general.

Any takers?

I'll chip in another $100 says he loses NY. 

[Right_in_Virginia]

For the open minded and the intellectuals, take a look at "paradigm shifts" and "disruptive technologies" because conceptually they may explain in part, what is going on.

Republicans have complained for years, that their elected officials do not represent their views. Approval of Congress is single digits.

If you love or if you hate Donald Trump, you cannot dismiss the "disruption" he has introduced. Whether he wins or he loses, he will have probably also started some paradigm shifts.

For example, if he truly brings large numbers of new voters to the Republican side, that is significant.

Assuming he wins, and does something meaningful about curbing illegal immigration, reducing export of jobs and money, he will have made a bigger difference than any Republican since Reagan.

The status quo protecting GOP establishment seems to be having a new plan for how to stop him, almost every day. 

 

[HonestJohn]

Trump leads his closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, in New York State, by 52 points (64% to 12%).

Who was the last Republican to win New York State? Ronald Reagan 1984.

Who stands a better than good chance of turning New York State red? Donald Trump 2016

Once again, you conflate winning a Republican-only primary with winning the general election.  Why do you keep assuming that, in the general election, only Republicans vote?

[Bill Cipher]

For the open minded and the intellectuals, take a look at "paradigm shifts" and "disruptive technologies" because conceptually they may explain in part, what is going on.

Republicans have complained for years, that their elected officials do not represent their views. Approval of Congress is single digits.

If you love or if you hate Donald Trump, you cannot dismiss the "disruption" he has introduced. Whether he wins or he loses, he will have probably also started some paradigm shifts.

For example, if he truly brings large numbers of new voters to the Republican side, that is significant.

Assuming he wins, and does something meaningful about curbing illegal immigration, reducing export of jobs and money, he will have made a bigger difference than any Republican since Reagan.

The status quo protecting GOP establishment seems to be having a new plan for how to stop him, almost every day.
 

I can object to the fact that he has chosen to disrupt right at the best point to wreck the one election Republicans could have won almost no matter what, and I can object to the fact that he keeps throwing gas on the fire of divisiveness, thereby alienating more and more of the general electorate, in a year when losing the presidential election means losing the Supreme Court for at least 20 years.  I object to that.

[truth_seeker]

I can object to the fact that he has chosen to disrupt right at the best point to wreck the one election Republicans could have won almost no matter what, and I can object to the fact that he keeps throwing gas on the fire of divisiveness, thereby alienating more and more of the general electorate, in a year when losing the presidential election means losing the Supreme Court for at least 20 years.  I object to that.

Am I to take from that, you are okay with the need for disruption and a paradigm shift, but don't risk it at this time?

The GOP has lost the last 5 of 6 popular vote elections, with predictable, low risk candidates.  It is my view that settling on Cruz assures another loss, for his views are so far from the mainstream, to assure that loss.

Example: Cruz opposed abortions in cases of rape. That position is shared with only 22% of those polled.

The dems will easily portray him as a religious extremist whacko.

[Bill Cipher]

Am I to take from that, you are okay with the need for disruption and a paradigm shift, but don't risk it at this time?

The GOP has lost the last 5 of 6 popular vote elections, with predictable, low risk candidates.  It is my view that settling on Cruz assures another loss, for his views are so far from the mainstream, to assure that loss.

Example: Cruz opposed abortions in cases of rape. That position is shared with only 22% of those polled.

The dems will easily portray him as a religious extremist whacko.

I am okay with the principle, but the devil is always in the details.  Trump is much further from the mainstream than Cruz is.

Of course the democrats will try to portray him as a religious extremist whacko, but they'll have to do some work.  They would do that with any republican.  They won't have to do any work to portray Trump as racist and bigoted because Trump has already done that for them; they just need to run with what they've already been handed on a silver platter.

EDIT:  and yes, it does have to do with the timing as well.  The GOP needs to wring itself out but good, and has needed it for a long time, so in the abstract I'd welcome the fact that Trump has irretrievably broken the GOP and forced a show of hands.  But now is not the time because the Supreme Court is in play. 

[aligncare]

Of the handful of primary states that Ted Cruz won, he never broke 50%...except for one state. The 644 voters in Wyoming put him at 66.3%

644 votes in Wyoming to Trump's 184 votes....

Those 644 voters should rocket Ted Cruz all the way to Cleveland... 

[Bill Cipher]

Of the handful of primary states that Ted Cruz won, he never broke 50%...except for one state. The 644 voters in Wyoming put him at 66.3%

644 votes in Wyoming to Trump's 184 votes....

Those 644 voters should rocket Ted Cruz all the way to Cleveland... 

All he needs is a brokered convention and the numeric differences pre-convention may not mean very much.

[sinkspur]

Am I to take from that, you are okay with the need for disruption and a paradigm shift, but don't risk it at this time?

The GOP has lost the last 5 of 6 popular vote elections, with predictable, low risk candidates.  It is my view that settling on Cruz assures another loss, for his views are so far from the mainstream, to assure that loss.

Example: Cruz opposed abortions in cases of rape. That position is shared with only 22% of those polled.

The dems will easily portray him as a religious extremist whacko.

In EVERY SINGLE STATE in the primaries so far, with the exception of Alabama, REPUBLICAN voters, in exit polls prefer a path to citizenship to deportation for illegals.

The dems will throw those numbers at Trump and further drag down his support among Hispanics.

[A-Lert]

The status quo protecting GOP establishment seems to be having a new plan for how to stop him, almost every day.

Yes, they foisted milquetoast McCain and Mitt on us and the GOP believes they can keep foisting weak unimaginative candidates on us and we'll acquiesce. It appears that many people see through the BS and are demanding change. The GOP establishment is scared, and they should be. Had they done what they had promised over the last few decades, we wouldn't have the problems we're faced with today.

[A-Lert]

In EVERY SINGLE STATE in the primaries so far, with the exception of Alabama, REPUBLICAN voters, in exit polls prefer a path to citizenship to deportation for illegals.

The dems will throw those numbers at Trump and further drag down his support among Hispanics.

Care to post the source and how the poll question was framed?

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

So polls matter now?

How about the (seemingly) dozens that show Hillary trouncing the Don?

[Bill Cipher]

So polls matter now?

How about the (seemingly) dozens that show Hillary trouncing the Don?

Actually, this one shows Clinton trouncing Trump.

[A-Lert]

So polls matter now?

How about the (seemingly) dozens that show Hillary trouncing the Don?

Apparently they do to the poster.

[aligncare]

Four months out from the convention. Eight months from Election Day. Plenty of time for Trump to do damage to Hillary Clinton and drive her numbers way down.

Just a reminder. More Texans voted AGAINST Cruz, than voted for him in his home state of Texas.

In case anyone forgot.

[Bill Cipher]

Four months out from the convention. Eight months from Election Day. Plenty of time for Trump to do damage to Hillary Clinton and drive her numbers way down.

Just a reminder. More Texans voted AGAINST Cruz, than voted for him in his home state of Texas.

In case anyone forgot.

Wishful thinking.  Plenty of time for Trump to shove his numbers down the toilet and get the DNC base so riled up they'll vote for anyone other than Trump.

[aligncare]

The subject is still New York. This from the Village Voice:

The Masses Are Revolting: Why the Have-Nots in the Hamptons Are Pulling for Trump

......

You wouldn't normally put the words Hamptons and Trump together unless you were wagering on the guest list for a fundraiser at, say, Howard Stern's East Hampton estate. But these aren't normal times, and our man Trump is not a normal candidate. And the people supporting him are not to be found out there on the grassy expanses of Hamptons lawn parties. No, you are far more likely to find them, as I have, downtown in Sag Harbor at the LT or the Corner Bar. Trump's people out here aren't in the bought-and-paid-for, outright racist 25 percent who responded to his early campaign dog whistles like Labradors in a duck blind. His Hamptonites are by and large male and middle-aged or older, and they work with their hands for a living: They run machines in the factory on the Turnpike, or they paint houses and they repair plumbing; some of them work for the big landscaping companies that trim the Gin Lane hedges and mow Sagaponack lawns. They tend to occupy the next 25 percent, in other words — the people a suddenly gentler Trump is working to win over now, those who feel left out and left behind economically, whose thirst was supposed to be quenched by Reagan's trickle-down economics but who have been waiting nearly forty years for the first drop to fall.

Many of the people who hire Trump's legions out here run hedge funds and investment banks and real estate investment trusts. Most are Republicans, very wealthy Republicans, and as we know, these Establishment Swells are not happy with Mr. Trump — a while back they dispatched a well-dressed poodle called Mitt Romney to warn everyone how dangerous he is. But the people who work for Establishment Swells in the Hamptons, they like Mr. Trump a lot. You want to know why? Because after decades of promises and kabuki economics, they've figured out that the only trickle that's ever reached them has been from a busted pipe after a winter freeze at one of the Swells' summer houses, when they were called in to clean up the mess.

Read More at  http://www.villagevoice.com/news/the-masses-are-revolting-why-the-have-nots-in-the-hamptons-are-pulling-for-trump-8393875