More New Florida, Illinois and Ohio polls – Rubio fading and Cruz Emerging as the Trump Alternative

[Free Vulcan]

http://www.redstate.com/california_yankee/2016/03/14/new-polling-florida-illinois-ohio-cruz-emerging-trump-alternative/

More New Florida, Illinois and Ohio polls – Rubio fading and Cruz Emerging as the Trump Alternative

New CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker polls in Florida, Illinois and Ohio show Sen. Marco Rubio fading and Sen. Ted Cruz emerging as the only alternative Donald Trump. The polls, conducted by the online polling group YouGov, show Trump walking away with Florida as Cruz overtakes Rubio in second place. In Illinois, Cruz is within striking distance of catching  Trump. And in Ohio it may become a three-way race with Trump and John Kasich tied and Cruz only six points behind.

Florida:

    Donald Trump – 44%
    Ted Cruz – 24%
    Marco Rubio – 21%
    Ted Cruz – 21%
    John Kasich – 9%

The Margin of error for the new CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker Florida poll is plus or minus 4.8 percent. These results are similar to the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Polls reported Sunday, except for Cruz taking over second place from Rubio. The results are also consistent with the Real Clear Politics Average for the Florida Republican Presidential Primary, which shows Trump leading by 18.8 points.

Illinois:

    Donald Trump – 38%
    Ted Cruz – 34%
    John Kasich – 16%
    Marco Rubio -11%

The Margin of error for the new CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker Illinois poll is plus or minus 4.4 percent. These results show Trump and Cruz with more support for Cruz and Trump and less support for Kasich and Rubio than the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Polls reported Sunday. The results diverge from the Real Clear Politics Average for the Illinois Republican Presidential Primary, which shows Trump leading by 8.7% points.

Ohio:

    John Kasich – 33%
    Donald Trump – 33%
    Ted Cruz – 27%
    Marco Rubio – 5%

The Margin of error for the new CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker Ohio poll is plus or minus 4.4 percent. These results show Cruz with more support, Kasich with less support and Trump and Rubio about the same as the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Polls reported Sunday. These results also diverge from the Real Clear Politics Average for the Ohio Republican Presidential Primary, which shows Kasich leading by 2.7% points.

The polls have been so off you should take them with a huge grain of salt. But consider that Trump has canceled a rally in Florida scheduled for Monday to campaign in Ohio. And Cruz swept into Ohio Sunday night trying to make Ohio a three-person race.

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If Trump loses Illinois and Ohio, it'll go to convention.

[mystery-ak]

I am voting for Cruz tomorrow in Il.......

[Sanguine]

I am voting for Cruz tomorrow in Il.......

 :thumbsup2:

It really feels good to have a committed conservative to vote for for once!

[Longiron]

I am voting for Cruz tomorrow in Il.......

Surprise U are a UNIPARTY member but that is your choice?

[truth_seeker]

If Trump loses Illinois and Ohio, it'll go to convention.

I am curious. When making such a prediction, what do you assume for California's 172 delegates ??

[Free Vulcan]

Surprise U are a UNIPARTY member but that is your choice?

No, we Cruz supporters just aren't falling for the old Nixonian Populist Establishment replacing the Bush GOPe Establishment kabuki theater switcharoo.

[Free Vulcan]

I am curious. When making such a prediction, what do you assume for California's 172 delegates ??

And if he's 250 delegates short by then, what difference will it make? Do you understand that if he loses OH in particular how high the percentage of delegates he needs to win to get over the mark?

[libertybele]

I am voting for Cruz tomorrow in Il.......

I already voted for Cruz Saturday in Florida!   

[truth_seeker]

And if he's 250 delegates short by then, what difference will it make? Do you understand that if he loses OH in particular how high the percentage of delegates he needs to win to get over the mark?

Oh. So you are not using a model going state by state, some proportional, some winner take all, etc.?

I don't have a clue, so I am always curious about how and where others get their clues.

[Free Vulcan]

Oh. So you are not using a model going state by state, some proportional, some winner take all, etc.?

I don't have a clue, so I am always curious about how and where others get their clues.

He already needs to take 64% of the remaining delegates to win outright. Every state where he takes less increases that percentage. Not all the remaining states are WTA either. Simple math says if he loses OH he's got big problems. He's also very close with Cruz in MO, another WTA state.