United States Congress elections, 2016

[Bill Cipher]

United States Congress elections, 2016

A total of 469 seats in the U.S. Congress (34 Senate seats and all 435 House seats) are up for election on November 8, 2016.

The big story of the 2016 congressional election cycle is whether or not the Democratic Party will be able to regain control of the Senate. In order to take the chamber back, Democrats will need to gain five seats in 2016, a difficult but not impossible task. The majority of vulnerable seats are held by Republican incumbents, many of whom are freshmen who were swept into office in the Republican wave of 2010. Additionally, Democrats only have 10 seats to defend in 2016, while 24 Republican incumbents are up for re-election.

The unexpected death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia on February 13, 2016, places even greater importance on the 2016 Senate elections. Confirmation of a new Supreme Court justice requires 60 votes in the Senate, meaning that the Republican controlled Senate can and likely will deny any nominee chosen by President Barack Obama. Several Republican senators, including Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, have declared that the next president should have the responsibility of appointing the new justice. McConnell said in a statement, "The American people‎ should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice. Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new President."[3]

Assuming that the Senate does block any nominee of President Obama, confirmation will be left to the newly elected Senate in 2017. This puts increased pressure on both parties to win the Senate in 2016, as the chamber will have the ability to confirm or deny the next president's nominees. This could also raise the issue of Republican obstructionism in battleground states and potentially harm Republican incumbents who need to appeal to more moderate voters in order to win re-election. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said of the issue, "I believe that many of the mainstream Republicans, when the president nominates a mainstream nominee, will not want to follow Mitch McConnell over the cliff. The American people don't like this obstruction. When you go right off the bat and say, 'I don't care who he nominates, I am going to oppose him,' that's not going to fly."

There is significantly less at stake in the U.S. House in 2016, as control of the chamber is very unlikely to be in question. In order to flip the chamber, the Democratic Party would need to pick up 30 seats, a nearly impossible task. While it would be very difficult for the Democratic Party to gain control of the chamber in this election cycle, Democrats can still hope to reduce the majority that the Republican Party holds. Republicans currently hold their largest majority in the U.S. House since 1928.

The fact that 2016 is a presidential election year should be a boon to Democratic candidates. In the past decade, Democrats have made gains in both chambers in presidential elections, while they have suffered losses in the midterms. Should Democrats fail to retake the Senate in 2016, it is unlikely that they will get another opportunity until at least 2020.

U.S. Senate
The Republican Party currently holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. Republicans hold 54 Senate seats while the Democrats have 44 Senate seats. Two seats are held by independents, who caucus with the Democratic Party. The Republicans won the Senate majority in the 2014 midterm elections when they gained nine seats and lost none.

There are 24 Republican seats and 10 Democratic seats up for re-election. In 2016, the Democratic Party will need to pick up five seats in the Senate in order to regain the majority they lost in 2014. The majority of the Republican incumbents up for re-election in 2016 were first elected in 2010 during the tea party movement.

Senate battlegrounds



U.S. House
The Republican Party currently has the majority in the U.S. House. Republicans hold 247 seats compared to Democrats' 188 seats. The Republican Party increased its hold on the House in the 2014 midterms when it picked up 15 seats while only losing two. In order to gain control of the House, Democrats would need to gain 30 seats in 2016.

House battlegrounds

purple districts are identified as battlegrounds.