http://www.weeklystandard.com/poll-rubio-leads-trump-by-25-points-in-florida-among-those-who-have-already-voted/article/2001447Poll: Rubio Leads Trump by 25 Points in Florida Among Those Who Have Already Voted2:57 PM, MAR 07, 2016 | By JOHN MCCORMACK
A new Monmouth University poll conducted from March 3 to March 6 shows Donald Trump leading Marco Rubio in Florida 38 percent to 30 percent, with Ted Cruz in third at 17 percent and John Kasich in fourth at 10 percent. The most surprising result from the Monmouth survey is that Rubio has a big lead over Trump among those who have already voted: "Rubio actually leads Trump by 48% to 23% among the nearly 1-in-5 voters who have already cast their ballots in this 'early vote' state. Trump has a 42% to 26% lead among those who have yet to vote."
If true, the early vote numbers are encouraging news for Rubio. Polls in several states have overstated Donald Trump's polling lead by double digits, possibly because voters are breaking late to the candidate with the best chance of beating Trump.
The RealClearPolitics average of polls showed Trump leading Rubio by 14.5 points in Virginia—36.8 percent to 22.3 percent. But Trump only beat Rubio by 2.8 points in Virginia—34.7 percent to 31.9 percent. The polling average in Louisiana showed Trump leading Ted Cruz by 15.6 points in—43.3 percent to 27.7 percent. But Trump only beat Cruz on Saturday by 3.6 points—41.4 percent to 37.8 percent. Cruz beat Trump by 25 points in the Kansas caucuses on Saturday after polls showed Trump leading Cruz by 6 to 12 points.
Trump's path to the nomination becomes difficult if he loses Florida's primary on March 15 in which the plurality winner takes home all 99 delegates. Marco Rubio now appears to be the only candidate who has a decent chance of beating Trump there, and it's not hard to see Rubio overcoming Trump's single-digit lead if he does in fact have that many votes already banked and if he turns in a strong debate performance on Thursday night in Miami.
