Donald Trump leads his nearest rival, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, by 7 percentage points — 31 percent to 24 percent — heading into today's caucuses, the final Quinnipiac University poll of Iowa finds.
Trump's edge, powered as it is by a big lead among what Quinnipiac has identified as likely first-time caucus-goers, could be more tenuous than it looks. The race is still fluid: Although 3 percent said they were undecided, 28 percent of those who did name a candidate said they were open to changing their minds.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio trails both men with 17 percent, with retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson in fourth place at 8 percent. The other GOP candidates are all at or below 4 percent.
The poll shows Trump pulling away from Cruz and Rubio catching up — Quinnipiac's Jan. 26 survey had Trump at 31 percent, Cruz at 29 percent and Rubio at 13 percent.
Trump leads with male likely caucus goers 38 to Cruz's 24 percent but the two are neck and neck with women -- 24 percent are for Cruz and 23 for Trump.
Trump is also leading in another area that is less positive. Among likely Republican caucus-goers in the state who would "definitely not support" the businessman, 35 percent compared to Cruz's 15 percent.
Just under one out of three likely GOP caucus-participants are most concerned about the economy and jobs (27 percent) while 15 percent are most concerned with terrorism and 11 percent are focused on immigration.
The Quinnipiac Iowa poll was conducted on Jan. 25 - 31 and, for its GOP sample, surveyed 890 likely Republican caucus participants, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/iowa-poll-trump-leading-218518
