Joey Garrison, jgarrison@tennessean.com 9:08 p.m. CST January 28, 2016
Donald Trump has amassed a commanding lead among Republican voters in Tennessee, according to a new poll from Middle Tennessee State University that found Ted Cruz in a distant second in the state's GOP primary.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton holds a significant lead over Bernie Sanders among Tennessee Democrats, though her disapproval rating tops all presidential candidates in the state.
The poll, released on Wednesday, is the first survey of the presidential race in Tennessee to come out since a Vanderbilt University poll in December found Ben Carson leading here. Tennesseans vote on March 1 as part of a so-called "SEC Primary" that features voting in seven Southern states and 10 overall. Early voting in Tennessee begins Feb. 10.
The new MTSU poll shows Trump — a brash billionaire real estate mogul from New York who has led national polls for months — the top choice of 33 percent of registered Tennessee voters who identified themselves as Republicans, followed by Cruz, the Texas senator who is backed by 17 percent of Republicans. Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, has the support of 7 percent of Tennessee Republicans, down from 19 percent from an MTSU poll in November.
The trio is trailed by Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 5 percent; New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 2 percent; former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 2 percent; and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, businesswoman Carly Fiorina, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul with each at less than 1 percent.
The poll found 28 percent of Tennessee Republicans said they are undecided.
"As of now, overall, the big takeaway is that it's Trump in this state," said Jason Reineke, associate director of the poll at MTSU, who stressed that the dynamics can still change. "He certainly appears to be in the lead, particularly among Republicans, and relatively strong support from independents — with the important caveat that there's a lot of polarization regarding him."
Clinton, a former U.S. secretary of state, is the top candidate of 47 percent of self-described Democrats in Tennessee, according to the same poll, a 3-to-1 lead over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who has backing from 15 percent of Democrats. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley had less than 1 percent support.
Twenty-six percent of Democratic respondents said they don't know whom they support.
The new MTSU poll is a snapshot of 600 registered voters in Tennessee — Republicans, Democrats and independents — taken from Jan. 15 through Jan. 20. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The poll, which did not zero in on "likely voters," comes just days ahead of Monday's Iowa caucuses, which kick off the presidential voting in both parties. Polling there has found Trump narrowly ahead of Cruz and Clinton and Sanders even closer.
Clinton soundly defeated Barack Obama in the 2008 Tennessee Democratic primary. And despite her huge lead over Sanders in the state today, the MTSU poll found half of all Tennessee voters reported Clinton was the candidate they would least like to see as president.
"The state's Democrats are Clintonian," Reineke said. "But it's also important to note that she is in many ways the least popular candidate. When you look at how Republicans have this enormous antipathy to her, it's possible that if she's the Democratic nominee, as signs seem to point to, that might actually drive stronger Republican turnout against her."
Meanwhile, the poll found that around one-quarter of respondents singled out Trump as the candidate they would least like to see become president, tops among Republican candidates.
And yet the poll also found Trump the top candidate among voters who described themselves as independent voters in Tennessee, with support of 26 percent in that category. Sanders was second in this category, at 10 percent, followed by Clinton at 8 percent.
Reach Joey Garrison at 615-259-8236 and on Twitter @joeygarrison.
Republicans
Donald Trump: 33 percent
Ted Cruz: 17 percent
Ben Carson: 7 percent
Marco Rubio: 5 percent
Chris Christie: 2 percent
Jeb Bush: 2 percent
Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich and Rand Paul: less than 1 percent each
Source: MTSU Poll
Democrats
Hillary Clinton: 47 percent
Bernie Sanders: 15 percent
Martin O'Malley: Less than 1 percent
Source: MTSU Poll
http://www.alipac.us/f9/new-poll-trump-clinton-lead-big-tennessee-328062/
