Poll: Donald Trump and Ted Cruz in a virtual tie in Iowa

[HonestJohn]

I'll take some of what you're smoking, AC.   Did you read what I posted above?  Negatives of 26, 36 and 24 percentage points among independents, women and suburban voters, while you airily declare his "negatives are 14%"  Among who? 

The only conceivable scenario in which Trump could win the general is if one or more independents siphon off enough votes so that the winner need only gain a plurality of maybe 30%.   If Bloomberg runs, that'll be the existential question for those who oppose Trumpism - is giving a vote to Bloomberg actually helping Trump?

Let's not forget that Romney netted roughly 25% of the Hispanic vote in 2012.  I'd hazard that the 25% he got will *NOT* be going, en masse, to Trump.  (and they are a growing segment of the voting population, so there are more Hispanic votes today than four years ago)

[Jazzhead]

Let's not forget that Romney netted roughly 25% of the Hispanic vote in 2012.  I'd hazard that the 25% he got will *NOT* be going, en masse, to Trump.  (and they are a growing segment of the voting population, so there are more Hispanic votes today than four years ago)

Bottom line is that neither Trump nor Cruz can win in the general election.   The main difference to me is that I can vote for Cruz without having to take a shower afterwards.   I'd rather we go down with a man like Goldwater - proud, conservative and principled - then go down with a man like George Wallace - bigoted and a disgrace to the values of this nation.

I'm a Kasich supporter, and realistically I know there's not much hope for my candidate.  Hopefully,  he can pull off a strong showing in New Hampshire to keep going beyond March 15, when the primary landscape will suddenly and dramatically get better for pragmatic conservatives.   But I'm seeing a bit of light ahead - Trump, like the moral cretin that he is, has turned on Cruz and is dead set on destroying him.   Meanwhile,  one has to believe that Trump will soon cross a bridge too far, and even his minions will start feeling ashamed of all the perniciousness.   Cruz and Trump may effectively cannibalize each other,  leaving the road clear for an electable conservative to emerge.     

[HonestJohn]

Bottom line is that neither Trump nor Cruz can win in the general election.   The main difference to me is that I can vote for Cruz without having to take a shower afterwards.   I'd rather we go down with a man like Goldwater - proud, conservative and principled - then go down with a man like George Wallace - bigoted and a disgrace to the values of this nation.

I'm a Kasich supporter, and realistically I know there's not much hope for my candidate.  Hopefully,  he can pull off a strong showing in New Hampshire to keep going beyond March 15, when the primary landscape will suddenly and dramatically get better for pragmatic conservatives.   But I'm seeing a bit of light ahead - Trump, like the moral cretin that he is, has turned on Cruz and is dead set on destroying him.   Meanwhile,  one has to believe that Trump will soon cross a bridge too far, and even his minions will start feeling ashamed of all the perniciousness.   Cruz and Trump may effectively cannibalize each other,  leaving the road clear for an electable conservative to emerge.   

Honestly,  I think a Rubio/Kasich ticket is the best chance to win in 2016. We lock in Florida and Ohio's electoral college votes, putting us ahead at the get-go.

And Rubio is the only Republican candidate with a positive message and a 'self-made man' image.  In essence, an image of the American dream (son of immigrants to President).

Plus Kasich can only help with independents.

[Free Vulcan]

Bottom line is that neither Trump nor Cruz can win in the general election.   The main difference to me is that I can vote for Cruz without having to take a shower afterwards.   I'd rather we go down with a man like Goldwater - proud, conservative and principled - then go down with a man like George Wallace - bigoted and a disgrace to the values of this nation.

I'm a Kasich supporter, and realistically I know there's not much hope for my candidate.  Hopefully,  he can pull off a strong showing in New Hampshire to keep going beyond March 15, when the primary landscape will suddenly and dramatically get better for pragmatic conservatives.   But I'm seeing a bit of light ahead - Trump, like the moral cretin that he is, has turned on Cruz and is dead set on destroying him.   Meanwhile,  one has to believe that Trump will soon cross a bridge too far, and even his minions will start feeling ashamed of all the perniciousness.   Cruz and Trump may effectively cannibalize each other,  leaving the road clear for an electable conservative to emerge.   

Jazzhead, you need to reel in the Jesus Complex. You also are not in the line of succession for Pope. You keep bloviating and projecting these delusional fantasies from this narrow, conspiratorial world of Social Justice Warrior paranoid victim syndrome. What you see as genius is catty passive-aggressive safe space type of stuff.

Kasich has no chance, if he even does well in NH, it will be a swan song canard. He'll get wiped away in SC and FL.

Back to Iowa - it's all about who shows up, and who goes to convention. Cruz people will show, Trump's remain to be seen. We'll see Monday.

[Jazzhead]

Jazzhead, you need to reel in the Jesus Complex. You also are not in the line of succession for Pope. You keep bloviating and projecting these delusional fantasies from this narrow, conspiratorial world of Social Justice Warrior paranoid victim syndrome. What you see as genius is catty passive-aggressive safe space type of stuff.

Kasich has no chance, if he even does well in NH, it will be a swan song canard. He'll get wiped away in SC and FL.

Back to Iowa - it's all about who shows up, and who goes to convention. Cruz people will show, Trump's remain to be seen. We'll see Monday.

I'm hardly the only observor who thinks Trump and Cruz may cannibalize each other.   As for Kasich,  don't count him (or anyone else) out until the votes are counted - especially the votes in the big winner-take-all primaries after March 15.   The socially conservative southern states vote first, and in most cases divide up their votes.   A pragmatic conservative can make a comeback in New York , Ohio, Pennsy, California and other "bluer" states.  The biggest challenge for the pragmatic conservatives is the weaker candidates need to drop out, and they need to focus their fire on Trump, not each other.  After New Hampshire, some of that winnowing may begin, but it may not finish until after March 15.   At that point, hopefully Trump will have damaged himself with his usual idiocy.   

[Free Vulcan]

You are completely discounting Rubio. He's got more mojo than Kasich, and if the GOPe doesn't side with Trump, they'll go with him.

You're mirroring the same argument that you are trying to pull against Cruz and Trump. Kasich isn't electable because there's not enough people out there of the ilk you describe to vote for him. If Hillary gets the nomination, she will beat him in the race to the 'common sense' middle.

Let's also not forget Kasich's tendency wander tino the weeds sounding as preachy, righteous, and religiousy as any hard social conservative theocrat. He is also not going to beat Hillary in that department either. A philosophical wander-a-round isn't going to get it done. Jeb has already tried that and lost.

If the GOPe wants a candidate, Rubio is their best bet. And a hard conservative like me is much more willing to vote for him than a Kasich.

[Jazzhead]

You are completely discounting Rubio. He's got more mojo than Kasich, and if the GOPe doesn't side with Trump, they'll go with him.

You're mirroring the same argument that you are trying to pull against Cruz and Trump. Kasich isn't electable because there's not enough people out there of the ilk you describe to vote for him. If Hillary gets the nomination, she will beat him in the race to the 'common sense' middle.

Let's also not forget Kasich's tendency wander tino the weeds sounding as preachy, righteous, and religiousy as any hard social conservative theocrat. He is also not going to beat Hillary in that department either. A philosophical wander-a-round isn't going to get it done. Jeb has already tried that and lost.

If the GOPe wants a candidate, Rubio is their best bet. And a hard conservative like me is much more willing to vote for him than a Kasich.

I like Rubio.  I'm concerned that he (like Cruz) is an inexperienced first-term Senator just like Obama was.   But a Kasich/Rubio (or, sure, Rubio/Kasich) ticket would be just about ideal in maximizing the GOP's chances of taking the White House.   

[Free Vulcan]

I like Rubio.  I'm concerned that he (like Cruz) is an inexperienced first-term Senator just like Obama was.   But a Kasich/Rubio (or, sure, Rubio/Kasich) ticket would be just about ideal in maximizing the GOP's chances of taking the White House.

Rubio has only 2 years more experience on the job as Cruz, so either they both are qualified or both are not. Not playing that old MSM canard with me.

Other than you like him, Kasich has no mojo. He's like listening to Bush, just more preachy when he's wonky. He may do well in NH, but he has no where to go from there in SC and FL.

[Jazzhead]

Rubio has only 2 years more experience on the job as Cruz, so either they both are qualified or both are not. Not playing that old MSM canard with me.

Other than you like him, Kasich has no mojo. He's like listening to Bush, just more preachy when he's wonky. He may do well in NH, but he has no where to go from there in SC and FL.

I'm not sure what is so desireable about "mojo".   I value experience  - Kasich was a Reagan movement conservative, Congressman, foreign policy advisor and has been for years a successful governor of a diverse, blue state.   Trump whined yesterday that it was time for the "adults" to show up.  Well, Kasich is the experienced, adult conservative who can lead from day one.