DON'T ASSUME A REPUBLICAN WIN - Moody’s model gives Dem candidate advantage in 2016

[GAJohnnie]

There is no data to support this emotion based assumption that Kasich has any cross over appeal. Based on the current data Kaisch does the worse against Clinton head to head of any of the GOP candidates. Neither Kasich nor Rubio show any sign they can win their own states against the other  GOP challengers must less the Democrats.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

[Bigun]

There is no data to support this emotion based assumption that Kasich has any cross over appeal. Based on the current data Kaisch does the worse against Clinton head to head of any of the GOP candidates. Neither Kasich nor Rubio show any sign they can win their own states against the other  GOP challengers must less the Democrats.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

With ALL due respect what data set underpins your belief that Donald Trump will do even a single thing that he promises to do if elected?  I can't seem to find that.

[HAPPY2BME]

I'm more inclined to be pragmatic rather than ideological because Clinton is such a weak candidate,  distrusted and corrupt,  and likely without the ability to get the high turnout of blacks and other minorities that allowed Obama to prevail.   I think we CAN win this year,  provided we don't screw the pooch and nominate someone utterly acceptable to most Americans.   

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You're assuming the GOP can pour piss out of a boot with the directions written on the heel - they can't.

You're assuming the GOP can pool their collective base into a single voting block - they can't.

You're assuming the GOP can cooperate at the senate and congressional level long enough to focus on Hillary Clinton's massive encyclopedia of corruption instead of concentrating on ripping each other apart from the anus on up - they can't.

[libertybele]

With ALL due respect what data set underpins your belief that Donald Trump will do even a single thing that he promises to do if elected?  I can't seem to find that.

   ..hmmm...no reply yet.

[Meshuge Mikey]

Sure except it is a garbage in/garbage out model. The current economic statistics have no connection with the real state of the economy. I work in Logistics and NOTHING is  moving. Freight rates are moving downward to 2009 levels. There is NO heat in the current economy outside the fraudulent numbers being pumped out by the Obama regime.

Moody, is basing it predictive model on garbage data.

Gee I had though that this was "Settled Science"


Thanks!

[Jazzhead]

With ALL due respect what data set underpins your belief that Donald Trump will do even a single thing that he promises to do if elected?  I can't seem to find that.

Yeah, that.   That's the textbook case of GAJohnny's "emotion-based" thinking.   I understand why many think Kasich is not ideal,  but I can point to a 30-year-plus record of service,  as an activist movement conservative, an objectively conservative Congressman (check out his ACU ratings), a foreign policy advisor in a Republican administration,  and a wildly popular multi-term governor of a diverse, red state.   

My support for Kasich is not "emotion-based",  it is a sober conclusion based on the premises that a nominee who can't handle the job with integrity and principle isn't deserving of my support,  and a conservative who can't be elected and six bits will get me a cuppa Joe. 

This isn't a game.  This is as serious as your life.   The SCOTUS in the balance.  The economic fortunes of a generation are in the balance.  Our physical security is in the balance.   To hell with Hillary Clinton and to hell with Donald Trump.  A pox on both parties - and the fools that enable them - if that is the messed up choice they present to this bleeding nation. 

Yes, I am angry but not so much as to lose all common sense.   Kasich/Rubio - sorry it ain't sexy,  but if the goal is to defeat Hillary Clinton,  that's how you do it.   If that's not the goal,  then think long and hard about what's about to go down if we spit this bit.         

[Scottftlc]

With ALL due respect what data set underpins your belief that Donald Trump will do even a single thing that he promises to do if elected?  I can't seem to find that.

As I am sure you are well aware, that question always comes down to a matter of trust - there is no data that can tell us that and presidents from worst to best have spotty records. Reagan had his balanced budget/deficit reduction promise (and his lament later about the budget cuts that never materialized when he trusted Tip with a tax increase). Bush Sr. had "Read My Lips." Bush W had school vouchers, social security restructuring and tax code simplification promises among his collection that were never even attempted.

It is merely a matter of trust, it always is, always. And different people - like all of us here - will have different opinions on that.

[Bigun]

As I am sure you are well aware, that question always comes down to a matter of trust - there is no data that can tell us that and presidents from worst to best have spotty records. Reagan had his balanced budget/deficit reduction promise (and his lament later about the budget cuts that never materialized when he trusted Tip with a tax increase). Bush Sr. had "Read My Lips." Bush W had school vouchers, social security restructuring and tax code simplification promises among his collection that were never even attempted.

It is merely a matter of trust, it always is, always. And different people - like all of us here - will have different opinions on that.

I think that is a very reasonable response that leads to another question. Do you trust Donald Trump to make the next two or three SCOTUS appointments?  I sure as hell don't!

[Scottftlc]

I think that is a very reasonable response that leads to another question. Do you trust Donald Trump to make the next two or three SCOTUS appointments?  I sure as hell don't!

I trusted George W Bush and we ended up John Roberts...and not to forget Harriet Miers.  We got O'Connor and Kennedy from Reagan. From Bush Sr. we got David Souter.  To directly answer, I trust Trump as much as I do any politician. All are men, subject to mistakes and errors of judgment.  And all can do well at other times...Scalia and Thomas.  Does a political career vs. a business career make a man have better judgement?  I do not believe so. I actually believe that professional career politicians played a major role in bringing us to this bad place in the welfare of our nation.  I believe that unorthodox is actually called for and that Trump is a patriot.  I do not believe ideology will be successful in pulling the nation out of its death spiral, for the simple reason that ideology is viewed too much like scripture - and it will be rejected, much like George W Bush was rejected in his second term.

[jmyrlefuller]

As I am sure you are well aware, that question always comes down to a matter of trust - there is no data that can tell us that and presidents from worst to best have spotty records. Reagan had his balanced budget/deficit reduction promise (and his lament later about the budget cuts that never materialized when he trusted Tip with a tax increase). Bush Sr. had "Read My Lips." Bush W had school vouchers, social security restructuring and tax code simplification promises among his collection that were never even attempted.

It is merely a matter of trust, it always is, always. And different people - like all of us here - will have different opinions on that.

We also have their records.

There used to be a running joke about politicians who suddenly discovered their newfound convictions on "the road to Des Moines." Generally speaking, you can get an idea of how a candidate is going to govern based on how they conducted themselves before they started on their way to the Presidency. We were fortunate this year to have a large field of very accomplished candidates with extensive résumés—track records that proved their mettle and their sincerity, in circumstances far more hostile than the frontrunner. We know exactly where those candidates stand on the issues when the self-interest is at a minimum.

With Trump, he's never held public office so we don't know how he would respond to our modern troubles. We know what he's said, and unfortunately, up until he started running for President last year (and even while he did so) his public statements were very troubling. It's hard to trust someone who gives you no reason to believe he's being consistent.

[Bigun]

I trusted George W Bush and we ended up John Roberts...and not to forget Harriet Miers.  We got O'Connor and Kennedy from Reagan. From Bush Sr. we got David Souter.  To directly answer, I trust Trump as much as I do any politician. All are men, subject to mistakes and errors of judgment.  And all can do well at other times...Scalia and Thomas.  Does a political career vs. a business career make a man have better judgement?  I do not believe so. I actually believe that professional career politicians played a major role in bringing us to this bad place in the welfare of our nation.  I believe that unorthodox is actually called for and that Trump is a patriot.  I do not believe ideology will be successful in pulling the nation out of its death spiral, for the simple reason that ideology is viewed too much like scripture - and it will be rejected, much like George W Bush was rejected in his second term.

Thanks for you're reasoned response Scott!  Can't  argue with what you said but based on what I know I just can't help but believe that Ted Cruz would make some GREAT appointments to that court. This may well be our last chance!

[HAPPY2BME]

I trusted George W Bush and we ended up John Roberts...and not to forget Harriet Miers.  We got O'Connor and Kennedy from Reagan. From Bush Sr. we got David Souter.  To directly answer, I trust Trump as much as I do any politician. All are men, subject to mistakes and errors of judgment.  And all can do well at other times...Scalia and Thomas.  Does a political career vs. a business career make a man have better judgement?  I do not believe so. I actually believe that professional career politicians played a major role in bringing us to this bad place in the welfare of our nation.  I believe that unorthodox is actually called for and that Trump is a patriot.  I do not believe ideology will be successful in pulling the nation out of its death spiral, for the simple reason that ideology is viewed too much like scripture - and it will be rejected, much like George W Bush was rejected in his second term.

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Truth hurts.

[Bigun]

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Truth hurts.

Yes! And the truth is that Ted Cruz is no Bush!

[HAPPY2BME]

Thanks for you're reasoned response Scott!  Can't  argue with what you said but based on what I know I just can't help but believe that Ted Cruz would make some GREAT appointments to that court. This may well be our last chance!

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Never put your faith in any government, or any man.  You will always, always be sorely disappointed.

FWIW, yes, Cruz has good enough judgement to appoint a righteous man or woman to the USSC.  That bodes against him though.  People can sense it in him, and in this generation of vipers - they hate him for it.  Progressive Republicans included.

But gawd, man.  Is he electable?  Can he carry the swing vote?  Can the average person on the street with enough gumption to actually cast a vote tell the difference?  That 'average voter' BTW, can't.

So exactly WHO is selling the tastiest brand of tonic water?

[Bigun]

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Never put your faith in any government, or any man.  You will always, always be sorely disappointed.

FWIW, yes, Cruz has good enough judgement to appoint a righteous man or woman to the USSC.  That bodes against him though.  People can sense it in him, and in this generation of vipers - they hate him for it.  Progressive Republicans included.

But gawd, man.  Is he electable?  Can he carry the swing vote?  Can the average person on the street with enough gumption to actually cast a vote tell the difference?  That 'average voter' BTW, can't.

So exactly WHO is selling the tastiest brand of tonic water?

I heard that same argument when Cruz decided to run against one of the most well known, and fabulously wealthy, politicians  around for the senate seat he now holds!  I would NEVER underestimate  him!

[libertybele]

"Never put your faith in any government, or any man.  You will always, always be sorely disappointed."

Very true.  I have always put my faith in my gut feeling and it has never been wrong; it has saved my life a few times.  My gut feeling says that Trump will be an absolute disaster as a president.

[Scottftlc]

We also have their records.


With Trump, he's never held public office so we don't know how he would respond to our modern troubles. We know what he's said, and unfortunately, up until he started running for President last year (and even while he did so) his public statements were very troubling. It's hard to trust someone who gives you no reason to believe he's being consistent.

I guarantee you Trump will be inconsistent as president.  That is a lock. There is not a president in history that has been consistent throughout.  Ronald Reagan was not consistent. Teddy Roosevelt was not consistent.  I would argue that a consistent president, if even possible, would be an abject failure.  Trump being inconsistent with his past statement actually gives me some comfort - all of the other candidates will be that way too, we just don't know where that might happen because they have spent their entire adult lives preparing themselves for this politically.  That kind of political calculation is not, in my personal opinion, a positive when I am looking to who I will support with my vote.

In the end, we will all look at these things differently, and will arrive at what we each are comfortable with.  I am not into proselytizing and am happy with people coming to their own decisions...they will anyway...people here on this site have the best for the country in their hopes. 

[Scottftlc]

Thanks for you're reasoned response Scott!  Can't  argue with what you said but based on what I know I just can't help but believe that Ted Cruz would make some GREAT appointments to that court. This may well be our last chance!

I also believe that the chances are that Cruz would make good, solid appointments, if he got the chance.

[Bigun]

"Never put your faith in any government, or any man.  You will always, always be sorely disappointed."

Very true.  I have always put my faith in my gut feeling and it has never been wrong; it has saved my life a few times.  My gut feeling says that Trump will be an absolute disaster as a president.

My gut tells me the same. Strongly!

[Formerly Once-Ler]

That and the fact that there are currently 31 states with Republican governors  will have an effect on it as well!

Very nice graph Bigun.  Thanks for posting it

[Bigun]

Very nice graph Bigun.  Thanks for posting it

you are quite welcome!

[Meshuge Mikey]

"Never put your faith in any government, or any man.  You will always, always be sorely disappointed."

Very true.  I have always put my faith in my gut feeling and it has never been wrong; it has saved my life a few times.  My gut feeling says that Trump will be an absolute disaster as a president.

Theres a rumor going around that the [No - Mod1] have had their Gut Feeling removed...

[Formerly Once-Ler]

[No - Mod1]

You want to call Trump a monkey? I've got your back.

If you want to call his voters names, you're on your own. 

I hope some of them may be persuaded to vote for Cruz or Rubio should Trump fail to win the nomination.  I also think it is also counter productive to offend the fine contributors here who support Trump...they may learn something from you, if they don't put you on ignore out of anger.

[katzenjammer]

You want to call Trump a monkey? I've got your back.

If you want to call his voters names, you're on your own. 

I hope some of them may be persuaded to vote for Cruz or Rubio should Trump fail to win the nomination.  I also think it is also counter productive to offend the fine contributors here who support Trump...they may learn something from you, if they don't put you on ignore out of anger.

I agree with you, Once-ler.  Hopefully the mods will edit that unnecessary slur out of the thread.  I thought that we got beyond this kind of juvenile nonsense some time ago, apparently not.

[Free Vulcan]

Winning doesn't interest you?

My deepest apologies Jazzhead, I didn't realize Francis died and they made you Pope!

I cannot think of a recent election where the outcome is so unpredictable at this stage of the game. Anyone trying to make claims to any certainty is fooling themselves.