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Politico: The GOP's New Hampshire nightmare

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mystery-ak:
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/new-hampshire-2016-primary-217145

 The GOP's New Hampshire nightmare

Forget Iowa. This is where an anti-Trump contest becomes a four-way fight that could doom them all.

By Eli Stokols

12/27/15 08:22 AM EST

Updated 12/27/15 06:37 PM EST

BERLIN, N.H. — Chris Christie is mocking Marco Rubio for not showing up. An hour’s drive up the road, Jeb Bush is hammering away at Donald Trump — oh, and there he goes attacking Christie, too. Just a few blocks up the road, Rubio is quietly lashing Ted Cruz, reminding the people at his town hall that “some Republicans” voted to cut defense spending.

Welcome to New Hampshire, where the fight for the establishment lane of the GOP presidential primary is turning into a circular firing squad.

As the year winds down, four Republicans have crisscrossed the state, pointing their attacks in all directions. And with less than 50 days until the first-in-the-nation primary, it’s only going to get worse.

Forget Iowa, which Cruz appears to be locking up. It's New Hampshire that will cull this field. And with Christie, Bush and John Kasich making the Granite State the singular focus of their campaigns, and Rubio, should he lose Iowa, needing a top-tier finish, the fight to be the mainstream alternative to Cruz or Trump could end here.

“At the beginning of the year, we seemed to have an embarrassment of riches, and I thought it was a sign of strength of the party. And then Trump gets in and all of the sudden that strength has worked itself into something of a weakness,” said Drew Cline, the former editorial page editor of the New Hampshire Union Leader, the state’s biggest newspaper. “He has left all of the candidates in his shadow for months. And it’s trickier for a Trump alternative to emerge when the field is just so crowded.”

If Trump wins the Feb. 9 primary a week after Cruz wins Iowa, only one or two candidates finishing behind him will likely have the momentum to carry on. If four or even five candidates split the vote of an establishment electorate that never coalesces behind one standard-bearer, there may be only hollow victories to declare on primary night because none will have the firepower to challenge Cruz or Trump in South Carolina.

Just ask Cruz; he’s counting on it.

“Marco is perceived by many to be the most formidable candidate in the moderate lane. But he has serious competition in the moderate lane. Look, the winner of the moderate lane has to win New Hampshire,” the Texas senator said in a wide-ranging interview with National Review about his political strategy last week. “And at this point it is not clear to me who will win.”



Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/new-hampshire-2016-primary-217145#ixzz3vlSiBEgi

libertybele:
I think Christie has more 'appeal' than Rubio in that he comes across as your ordinary 'Joe' whereas there's something about Rubio's personality that comes across disingenuous.  Between the two of them however, Rubio is far more conservative; even with his Gang of 8 membership.  If Trump or Cruz manages to take NH and it doesn't go to Bush, Rubio or Christie it will send a huge shockwave across the GOPe with a ripple effect that I think will continue for the remainder of the primaries.

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