http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/264131-five-tests-for-obamas-final-year By Jordan Fabian - 12/25/15 06:05 AM EST
President Obama is laying the groundwork for an energetic final year in office.
His main goal in 2016 will be to secure his legacy and hand the keys off to another Democratic president. But success is far from guaranteed, with public doubts about his foreign policy moves threatening to drag down his poll numbers — and take his party with him.
Here are the five biggest challenges facing the president in 2016.
ISIS/Terrorism
Obama won major victories in 2015 by restoring diplomatic relations with Cuba, sealing a nuclear deal with Iran and completing a global agreement on climate change.
But terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, Calif., have blunted Obama’s momentum, sparking widespread concern about his ability to keep Americans safe.
The president has faced criticism from Republicans, and some Democrats, that he has consistently downplayed the threat posed by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
Obama insists that the problem is a matter of messaging, not strategy. But the public appears to disagree, giving his handling of ISIS low marks in opinion polls.
If Obama continues to suffer political damage on the issue of terrorism, it could hobble his ability to check off the remaining items on his agenda and help the Democratic nominee.
Unfinished business
Officials in the West Wing recognize that there are only a handful of areas where Obama is likely to find common ground with Congress next year.
The president and his team are hopeful that lawmakers will pass a criminal-justice reform package, the Pacific Rim trade deal and a plan to close the military prison at Guantanámo Bay.
“I’m not going to be forward-leaning on what I can do without Congress before I’ve tested what I can do with Congress,” Obama said when asked about Guantanámo during his year-end news conference.
But it’s far from certain that any of the three measures will become law, with presidential politics expected to gum up the works in Congress over the next 12 months.
So Obama is expected to turn to his executive powers to wrap up as much unfinished business as he can.
In the coming weeks, he plans to roll out a new unilateral action on gun control, a topic he has called the biggest disappointment of his presidency.
He may attempt to fulfill a 2008 campaign promise by closing Guantanámo on his own if lawmakers once again reject his plan to shutter the controversial facility.
While acting alone could also energize Obama’s supporters going into the 2016 presidential election, the strategy carries considerable risk.
Like his previous actions on immigration, Obama’s executive actions on guns and Guantanámo could be blocked in court. And even if he avoids a legal battle, Obama’s executive moves could be reversed if a Republican wins the White House.
Ensuring a Clinton victory
Democrats had a disastrous showing in the 2014 midterm elections in part because of the president’s unpopularity. Obama was sidelined during that campaign, as most Democrats wanted nothing to do with him.
It’s different this time around. Obama plans to be a fixture on the campaign trail in 2016, stumping for the Democratic presidential nominee, who will likely be Hillary Clinton.
“There is no better way for this president to preserve the progress of the last seven years than to elect a Democrat to replace him in November,” a senior administration official told reporters last week.
To do that, the Clinton campaign and the White House will have to keep a delicate balance, maintaining unity while ensuring the differences between Clinton and Obama don’t erupt into an all-out feud.
Most recently, Clinton has distanced herself from Obama’s previous claim that ISIS has been “contained” in the Middle East without slamming his overall strategy.
To win the White House, Clinton will almost certainly need to reassemble Obama’s coalition of young people, single women and minority voters.
But if the president’s poll numbers take a nosedive in his final year, Clinton might have to forge a different path.
Winning the Senate
Taking back the Senate would be a bit of redemption for Obama, who saw his party lose control of both chambers of Congress on his watch.
With the electoral map tilting in their favor, Democrats have a good shot at winning control of the Senate. Republicans must defend 24 Senate seats, including more than half a dozen in toss-up or Democratic-leaning states. Democrats are only defending 10 seats.
The demographic makeup of the electorate in presidential years is more favorable to Democrats than it is to Republicans, who took control of the Senate in the 2014 midterms. And the GOP presidential field’s heated rhetoric could motivate Democratic voters to get to the polls.
On a practical level, split control of Congress would mean that many of Obama’s signature accomplishments, including the Affordable Care Act and sweeping environmental regulations, would remain intact.
Coupled with Clinton’s election, Obama’s legacy would be virtually locked into place.
Staying relevant
“Lame duck” is treated like a four-letter word in the West Wing.
Obama’s aides insist that, unlike past presidents, he will remain a major player on the political stage until the day he leaves office. They point to all Obama accomplished in 2015, defying predictions that lame-duck status would kick in.
And they say Republican criticism of ObamaCare, the Paris climate deal and even Syrian refugees is further proof Obama is defining the issues of the presidential race.
“I mean, there is actually a parallel universe going on of actual activity. So we can live in that universe,” one senior administration official said of Obama’s desire to push his agenda in 2016.
“The 2016 campaign trail spends a lot of time responding to us,” said another official.
But with media coverage squarely focused on Donald Trump and the presidential horse race, the White House is using an unorthodox media strategy to keep Obama in the news.
He’s ending 2015, for example, with an appearance Jerry Seinfeld’s popular “Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee” web series.
