http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/264022-eight-ways-national-security-could-shake-up-2016 By Julian Hattem - 12/26/15 06:00 AM EST
In 2016, presidential campaigns will be forced to intensify their focus on foreign policy and national security, after weeks of renewed fears about global terrorism and foreign aggression.
There are sure to be surprises along the way that test candidates vying for the role of commander in chief.
Here’s a look at what to expect:
Benghazi report
Benghazi isn’t going away, no matter how much former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton wishes it would.
Michael Bay’s upcoming movie depicting the events of the 2012 attack, “13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi,” is scheduled to hit theaters on Jan. 15, just two weeks before the Iowa caucuses.
It’s unclear whether Clinton will be depicted at all in the film, or how it will portray her oversight from Washington. But the movie is certain to stoke new interest in the terror attack, which Clinton’s allies have hoped would be long gone by now.
At some point in the weeks after that, the House Select Committee on Benghazi is planning to release its report on the Libya attack, which left four Americans dead including U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens.
The report is expected to be highly critical of Clinton. Democrats — and even some Republicans — have insisted that the committee exists solely to tear down her political prospects.
Clinton’s high-profile appearance before the committee in October gave momentum to her campaign after Republicans failed to land a punch during a marathon day of questioning.
It was a low point for the GOP’s Benghazi panel, but Republicans have signaled they will return to the issue in 2016.
Iran nuclear deal
President Obama signed off on an agreement designed to limit Iran’s nuclear power this summer.
But the final deal won’t be implemented for months, after international monitors certify that Iran has deactivated thousands of centrifuges, filled the core of its Arak reactor with concrete and taken other steps to shut off its path to a bomb.
As such, sanctions won’t roll back on Iran’s oil and financial sectors until this spring or next summer, analysts expect — right as the election turns from primary season to the general.
Republicans candidates have repeatedly hammered the Obama administration over the deal, which they say is deeply flawed and will give Iran tens of billions of dollars to support terrorism groups and crack down on human rights.
The development could present problems for Hillary Clinton, who has boasted about her efforts to push Iran to the negotiating table while serving as secretary of State.
Despite the administration’s repeated sales pitches, the public’s perception of the deal has been largely critical. Roughly half of the nation opposed the deal this September according to polls, as lawmakers launched a failed effort to stop the pact from going into effect.
Their skepticism of the accord has been boosted by criticism from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as multiple prominent Democrats including Sen. Chuck Schumer (N.Y.).
ISIS
The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has expanded its reach in the last year despite frequent American airstrikes and the work of a small number of Special Operations forces that have been deployed to help Kurdish and Arab troops.
The terrorist organization has taken credit for attacks from Tunisia to France to Bangladesh. Followers, apparently acting without ISIS’s direction, have carried out violence from San Bernardino, Calif., to Australia.
Meanwhile, the extremist group is only solidifying its hold on Libya, where a power vacuum has left vast swaths of the country essentially ungoverned.
The White House has been under pressure to intensify its fight against the group, but has been slow to heed the call.
Lack of significant progress on the battlefield will spur more vehement calls for action. GOP candidates have largely scolded Obama for what they characterize as a refusal to rip ISIS out root and branch.
Syrian peace process
For weeks, international diplomats have been meeting in Vienna to try and hammer out a peace plan to the nearly five-year civil war in Syria.
The effort has been blessed by the United Nations, which expects formal peace talks to begin in late January.
But major obstacles remain that threaten to derail the effort and pose tough questions for candidates in 2016.
At the top of the list of obstacles is a bitter divide between the U.S. and Russia over the future of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The Obama administration has appeared to show small cracks in its long insistence that Assad needs to leave power, in the face of continued support from Russia.
Any international solution will have serious repercussions for the fight against the ISIS, which has flourished amid the chaos created by the civil war.
Refugees
The Obama administration has called for the U.S. to accept 10,000 Syrian refugees in fiscal 2016, a sharp increase from the roughly 2,000 accepted last year but still a tiny sliver of the millions pouring into Europe and neighboring Arab countries.
The Obama administration appears to be behind schedule, with roughly 1,000 refugees having arrived so far.
Many Republican candidates have opposed the administration’s plan.
Some have called for the U.S. to give preference to Christian refugees, and Donald Trump has taken the extreme step of saying that all Muslims — not just Syrian refugees — should be barred from entering the U.S.
The heated rhetoric is only likely to increase in 2016, as more refugees make their way to U.S. shores.
In January, the House voted to handcuff the administration’s policy. The Senate appears ready to follow suit early next year, assuring that candidates continue to get pressed on the issue.
Troops in Afghanistan
President Obama has announced plans to slowly lower the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan from 9,800 to the 5,500 who are scheduled stay in the country into 2017.
The gradual decline could meet opposition on the campaign trail, as the situation in Afghanistan continues to look perilous.
Continued unrest in Afghanistan and the government’s apparent inability to secure itself forced Obama to abandon his initial goal of bringing most American forces home by the end of his presidency this October. The Taliban has seized new territory throughout the country, and analysts worry about a similar power vacuum as the one that has allowed for the rise of the ISIS in Syria and Iraq.
Earlier this month, six American service members were killed in a suicide bombing at Bagram airbase, in the deadliest attack against Americans since 2012
The conditions on the ground appear unlikely to improve dramatically any time soon.
New attacks or gains by the Taliban could propel fresh attacks on the Obama administration’s plan, and raise new questions about how presidential candidates would respond.
Encryption
The White House has decided not to seek legislation prohibiting tech companies from using strong encryption software that protects people’s data so well that not even police can access it with a warrant.
Yet the issue has bubbled to the top of policy fights in Washington, and multiple lawmakers have indicated they will look to advance the issue on Capitol Hill next year.
Many Republicans have lambasted tech companies for moves that they say make it harder to catch terrorists and criminals. But that stance threatens to alienate Silicon Valley, a hub of campaign cash that strongly opposes mandates from the government.
On the Democratic side, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has appeared to oppose efforts to prohibit strong encryption.
But Clinton has repeatedly declined to take a firm stance on the issue, calling only for a “dialogue” to deal with law enforcement officials’ problems. In the coming year, she’ll be under increasing pressure to stake out a stronger position.
Ukraine
More than a year after Russia annexed Crimea, key questions in Ukraine remain unanswered.
The peace accord reached in Minsk this February has largely stemmed violence in Ukraine’s trouble East.
But elections in two of the country’s separatist-dominated eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk have been postponed until late February, offering a moment for renewed focus on the troubled region.
