http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2015/12/08/poll-trump-cruz-rubio-clinton-sanders/76948760/Poll: 68% of Trump’s supporters would vote for him if he bolts the GOP Susan Page, USA TODAY 2:46 p.m. EST
December 8, 2015
WASHINGTON — Donald Trump not only continues to lead the Republican presidential field in a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll. The overwhelming majority of his supporters also say they would vote for him if he bolted the GOP and ran as an independent.
The nationwide survey, taken Wednesday through Sunday, finds a trio of Republican candidates who show emerging national strength — Trump, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio — as other once-serious contenders struggle for traction.
And in a chilling sign for Republicans, 68% of Trump's supporters say they would vote for the blustery billionaire businessman if he ran as an independent rather than a Republican; just 18% say they wouldn't. The rest were undecided.
Among Democrats, former secretary of State Hillary Clinton has widened her lead over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders to nearly 2-1, 56%-29%.
The poll of 1,000 likely voters was taken before the latest Trump firestorm, this time over his statement Monday calling for a "complete and total shutdown" on all Muslims entering the United States until concerns about terrorism can be addressed. In TV interviews Tuesday morning, he refused to back down in the face of criticism not only by Democrats but also some leading Republicans.
He likened his actions to those taken by President Franklin Roosevelt during World War II against Japanese Americans and others. "If you look at what he was doing, it was far worse," he said on MSNBC.
The survey findings come less than two months before the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 1 start a cascade of contests designed to choose the parties' nominees. What seems likely to follow in the general election, at least at the moment, is a margin-of-error contest in which neither party starts off with a commanding advantage. In hypothetical head-to-heads, Clinton leads Trump by 4 percentage points, Cruz by 2 and Ben Carson by 1. Rubio leads Clinton by 3 points.
Those results show how firmly polarized the electorate already seems to be. Clinton's support ranges in a narrow band, from 45% to 48%. Support for her prospective Republican opponents ranges from 44% for Trump to 48% for Rubio. Only 7% or 8% of voters describe themselves as undecided.
All the leads are within the survey's margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.
Both front-runners have made predominantly negative impressions among voters. For Clinton, 54% have an unfavorable view of her, 39% a favorable one — putting her image "under water" by 15 points. But that deficit is dwarfed by Trump, who is viewed favorably by 30%, unfavorably by 60% — a 30-point gap that raises alarm among some Republican strategists about his electability in November.
That said, there is an almost even divide among those who have an unfavorable opinion of both Trump and Clinton: 45% say they dislike Clinton more; 42% dislike Trump more.
"Their mantra is ABCT— Anybody But Clinton or Trump," says David Paleologos, director of Suffolk's Political Research Center in Boston. More than one in five of those surveyed fall into this category. "If each is their party’s respective nominees, the poll tells us that the majority of the country does not see either candidate as acceptable, which means that the race for president may come down to which candidate voters view as the lesser of two evils."
In the Democratic contest, Clinton has strengthened her standing since the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll taken in September, when Vice President Biden was still a possible contender. She's gained 15 points since then; Sanders has gained six. Former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley, who registered no support in the September survey, has climbed to 4%.
In the Republican contest, Cruz and Rubio, now at 17% and 16%, have surged from the single-digit support they had in the fall. Carson's support has dipped by 3 points, to 10%. Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, in a freefall, has lost 12 of the 13 points she held in September. Support for former Florida governor Jeb Bush has been cut in half, to 8% from 4%.
Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich are each at 2%. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum and Fiorina are at 1%.
The margin of error for the sample of 363 likely Democratic voters and 357 likely Republican voters is plus or minus 5 points.
Some of the campaigns argue they score stronger standings in states with early contests, where momentum from a victory could boost a candidate across the country. In New Hampshire, which holds the nation's first primary, the RealClearPolitics average of recent statewide polls puts Kasich at 8%, Bush at 7% and Christie at 6%.
In the new national poll's hypothetical matchups for November, Clinton leads Trump 48%-44%. She edges Cruz by 47%-45% and Carson by 46%-45%. Rubio leads Clinton 48%-45%.
Given the poll's margin of error, those results essentially reflect jump balls in the general election.
