November 24, 2015
Russia's Challenge to NATO, and President Obama
By Col. Kenneth Allard USA (Ret.)
How ironic that on the eve of Turkey Day, so many chickens began coming home to roost.
President Obama – a no-show in Paris following the Charley Hebdo attacks in January – on Tuesday hosted a joint White House press conference with French President Francois Hollande. The latest round of Paris attacks had occurred only hours after President Obama’s confident boast that ISIS had been effectively contained. As if nothing much had changed in the last ten days, Mr. Obama asserted with equal confidence that the upcoming Paris Summit on climate change would be a “powerful rebuke” to the terrorists. To his credit, Monsieur Hollande kept a perfectly straight face, smug in the knowledge that the only aircraft carrier taking the fight to ISIS from the eastern Mediterranean is French, not American. Sacre bleu!
But alas, even this belated demonstration that we were on the same page with our oldest ally was overshadowed by the startling news that a Russian SU-24 “Fencer” fighter-bomber had been shot down by Turkey, the first time since the Cold War that a NATO member had fired upon a former member of the Warsaw Pact. Turkey promptly released radar images to support its claim that the Russian jet had violated Turkish airspace while bombing Turkmen fighting Assad’s Army. Turkey also claimed that it had warned the Russians at least ten times on the VHF/UHF guard channel, the common frequency used by pilots of all nationalities. Vladimir Putin was on a diplomatic visit to Jordan, befitting his image as the new Middle East strongman. In distinctly un-diplomatic terms, he snarled that the Turkish shoot-down was a “stab in the back by the accomplices of the terrorists” – clearly leaving the door open to escalation and retaliation.
So is there some history to the Turko-Russian confrontation? Sure, but only if you count the 12 major conflicts dating back to the 16th century between the Ottomans and the Romanovs, all those since 1768 resulting in Russian victories. If that sounds worrisome, then you’re probably comforted by the idea that technology can surely solve such problems, especially since no sane person one wants a larger confrontation. President Obama was asked about the shoot-down during the press conference, opining that there was an “ongoing problem” with Russian air operations taking place in close proximity to volatile international borders.
True enough, Mr. President. That is precisely the kind of “ongoing problem” that can spark wars that explode like prairie fires. So are we living in August, 1914 or December, 1941? Before anyone knows quite what is happening, before there is any possibility for second-chance diplomacy, third and fourth-order effects harden into tribal blood lust. Moreover, there are few more tribal places on earth than the Middle East, borders drawn long before the advent of high-performance aircraft.
In any air campaign, those borders complicate the formidable task of keeping track of one’s own aircraft. Things just go wrong with electronics, weather anomalies and hi-tech machinery that is surprisingly vulnerable to Murphy’s Law. Add in the human dimension – pilots, radar operators and air defenders – and this “ongoing problem” makes Murphy seem like an optimist. But add opponents or “frienemies” to your command-and-control problem - and disaster has not been left to chance.
Today’s shoot-down was predictable, even predestined, despite West Wing assurances that the Syrian anomaly was under firm control, its contradictions tweaked by the gradual addition of another out-numbered detachment of US special forces. The continuing Achilles heel of the Obama presidency has been its utter lack of strategic focus, its insistence on seeing the world as a disconnected series of tactical choices best viewed as “optics.”
Tuesday was typical. Ambassador Nicholas Burns, now in residence at Harvard, makes the sensible observation that President Hollande might reasonably have invoked Article 5 of the NATO Charter, in which an attack upon one is considered an attack upon all. Why not rally the Alliance as the multi-national force best able to eliminate the hydra-headed network of ISIS?
But an even better question: Why didn’t President Obama, the senior partner of that Alliance, make such a ringing declaration? Although Mr. Obama has never participated in the annual D-Day commemorations at Omaha Beach, surely he has heard of what began there, ended in victory at the gates of Berlin and then continued during the half-century of the Cold War? Mr. President, is there a more profound history anywhere else to guide us as we come to grips with necessity of destroying ISIS before it reaches American shores?
Come to think of it: Wouldn’t today have been the best of all possible days to remind Russia that Turkey is a permanent member of the NATO Alliance – and that America defends its friends?
A former draftee, Kenneth Allard is a retired Army Colonel who served as Dean of the National War College and NBC News military analyst. Living in San Antonio, TX, he is a regular contributor to the Washington Times.
http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2015/11/24/russias_challenge_to_nato_and_president_obama_108722.html
