Clinton, Carson Lead in WHO-HD, Iowa State University Poll(Trump in 3rd)

[Formerly Once-Ler]

http://whotv.com/2015/11/25/clinton-carson-lead-in-who-hd-iowa-state-university-poll/

DES MOINES, Iowa - A poll released Wednesday from Iowa State University and WHO-HD shows Ben Carson in the top spot among Republicans seeking their party's nomination for president.

The poll shows 27.2 percent of Republicans likely to participate in the Iowa Caucuses would support Carson, a former neurosurgeon. With 16.7 percent, Marco Rubio comes in ahead of businessman Donald Trump, who is in third place with 14.7 percent. Ted Cruz comes in fourth with 8.9 percent.

Mack Shelley, Iowa State University professor and chair of political science and professor of statistics, said there is still an ebb and flow of support among the large field of GOP contenders. “That can make a huge difference in that fragmented electorate, where a candidate could ‘win’ the caucuses with only about 20 to 30 percent of the vote."

Not only is the Republican race fluid, McCormick noted, but the contest in Iowa could solidify quickly if some second-tier Republican candidates drop out of the race.

“As resources dry up for some of these candidates, this remains a distinct possibility over the next several weeks,” he said. “Second, political novices – and Washington outsiders – continue to dominate the Republican field here in Iowa (as in the nation). Carson and Trump certainly fit that category, and Rubio likely wants to portray himself that way, too. Increasingly, Republicans seem to be opting for this kind of a nominee.”

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton, with 49.5 percent support, continues to lead in the three-way race. Bernie Sanders trails with 27.8 percent of respondents saying they would support the Vermont senator. Former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley receives 2.7 percent support in the poll.

"The contest for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination delegates in Iowa seems to have settled down to being in Hillary Clinton’s favor, barring some major personal or policy issue arising between now and Feb. 1,” said Shelley.

The poll took place earlier this month before the terrorist attacks in Paris. Following the attacks much of the international conversation has shifted to the fight against terrorism.

Iowans are paying close attention to the campaign

Eighty-one percent of respondents said they were following the presidential campaign either “very closely” (39 percent) or “somewhat closely” (42 percent). Slightly more than half of the respondents said they had “definitely decided” on (21.3 percent) or were “leaning toward” (30.3 percent) a particular candidate. But nearly 47 percent said they were still trying to decide.

Honesty wins

Survey respondents chose “honest and trustworthy” (38 percent) as the leading trait they seek when deciding to support a presidential candidate, followed by “takes strong stands” (20.8 percent), “cares about people” (17 percent) and “has the right experience” (16 percent). The least frequently selected reason for choosing a candidate, other than “don’t know” (3.7 percent) was whether or not the candidate “can win the election” at 10.7 percent.

Issues in the presidential nomination campaign

More at link

"How stupid are the people of Iowa?" - Don Trump

[Free Vulcan]

Understand Iowa caucus psychology - after Thanksgiving interest in the caucus goes hockey stick and can become very fluid. Expect alot of shuffling of the cards as new info comes out each day on the candidates and what they say. It will work up to a frenzy after New Years and be stratospheric up to caucus nite.

I think this one will be a doozy. The last two caucii had more attendance than our June primary for the other offices on the ticket. This one might be double a normal primary. I just hope we don't have the big fiasco we had last time.