What it would take for Ryan to run
The conservatives who drove out John Boehner would need to get behind him unconditionally for speaker.
By Jake Sherman
10/12/15 06:02 AM EDT
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Paul Ryan has made it abundantly clear he does not want to be speaker of the House. He enjoys the wonkery that comes with being Ways and Means chairman and believes he'd lose that as ringleader of the unwieldy Republican Conference.
But there’s one remote scenario, people close to him say, in which Ryan would consider abandoning his long-laid career plans and go for the speakership: if he was the true consensus choice of the party. That means no opposition, no sniping, no acceding to demands in exchange for support.
Republicans — including the hard-liners who pushed out John Boehner and convinced Rep. Kevin McCarthy to drop his bid for speaker — would need to show they’re prepared to follow Ryan.
There are some early signs that may be possible, though the sentiment on the right about Ryan is not unanimous. Two leaders of the conservative House Freedom Caucus — Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan and South Carolina Rep. Mick Mulvaney — indicated over the weekend that they could be comfortable with a Speaker Ryan. Mulvaney said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” that Ryan would “be a good speaker,” and Jordan said on “Fox News Sunday” that the 40-member caucus would “look favorably” on Ryan.
But both said they would ask Ryan whether he would commit to a host of changes to the institution’s rules. The Freedom Caucus is insisting that the next speaker run a more bottom-up operation — more floor votes on conservative legislation even if it lacks the votes to pass, less cracking down on members who buck leadership.
“I think he should come meet with us, and I imagine he wants to do that if he wants to run,” Mulvaney said. “Again, the issues on the list [of Freedom Caucus priorities] primarily were rule changes. The way that our conference is run. That's what we're trying to reform through the process.”
But unlike other candidates for the speakership, Ryan won’t be eager to engage in horse-trading to earn support of his colleagues on the right flank. He might be open to some of the rules changes they want, but it’s extremely unlikely that he would commit to such reforms in exchange for votes in a speaker election.
Ryan wants people to support him because they think he’s a good leader who will do the right thing for the party and the country, not because he’s agreed to a set of demands, according to people close to him.
Brendan Buck, a spokesman for Ryan, said that while his boss appreciates the support from his colleagues, he’s still not running for speaker.
Despite the cautiously positive words from Freedom Caucus leaders, some conservative media writers are lashing out.
Breitbart, a conservative news site, posted a story on Saturday that said putting Ryan up for speaker would be Republicans' "third strike" — the first two being Boehner and McCarthy. Breitbart quoted conservative commentator Phyllis Schlafly calling Ryan the "same type of leader as outgoing Speaker Boehner."
Some conservatives are warning about Ryan’s support of immigration reform. Erick Erickson penned a column under the headline “Paul Ryan is a Dangerous Pick for Conservatives,” arguing that while the 45-year-old lawmaker is “not a bad guy,” he has such a strong “cult of personality” that Republicans who oppose his decisions later would be “labeled as fascist totalitarians.”
The piece went on to accuse Ryan of being “one of less than a dozen Republican congressmen to have voted for every bailout to come before Congress.”
To be sure, these views reflect only a sliver of opinion inside the Capitol. But if those critiques gain traction among more of the 247 elected Republicans, Ryan will almost certainly take a pass, according to people familiar with his thinking.
If he does run, conservative leaders in Congress concede he would win. The question is whether Ryan is willing to take the plunge.
At this point, no one really knows, perhaps not even Ryan. He left Washington on Friday with few answers for reporters or his party. People close to him say he’ll take a few days to think and examine the landscape.
“He’s perfectly happy where he is,” said his fellow committee chairman Hal Rogers of Kentucky. “He’s doing what he really likes to do. And he’s always wanted that job" as Ways and Means chairman.
Being speaker, Rogers added, is a "much more different type of work. He’s got a young family. That’s primarily on his mind.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/ryans-mission-unlikely-214650?
