Dems set sights on Senate majority

[mystery-ak]

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/256312-dems-set-sights-on-senate-majority

 By Jonathan Easley - 10/08/15 06:00 AM EDT

With the field of Senate contenders coming into focus, Democrats see 2016 as a prime opportunity to regain a majority in the upper chamber.

The Democrats are likely to benefit from coattails in several battleground states that tilt blue in presidential election years.

They believe landing New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan this week to run against Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte is the capstone on a near-perfect recruitment run.

But Republicans will not go quietly.

The GOP’s stable of experienced incumbents will be well-funded and benefit from heavy spending from outside conservative groups.

Republicans scoff at the Democrats’ recruitment haul, calling candidates in states such as Ohio and Wisconsin “retreads.” They’re also pulling for bloody primary fights among Democrats in Florida, Illinois and Pennsylvania.

The GOP is defending 24 seats this cycle, compared to only 10 for Democrats. Right now, much of the focus is on nine states. President Obama carried all nine in 2008 and seven of them in 2012.

If Democrats can net five seats in total between those contests, they’ll reclaim a majority in the Senate.

Here’s a look at the state of the Senate races based on interviews with insiders from both parties.



ENDANGERED REPUBLICANS: Illinois and Wisconsin

Two one-term Republican senators from neighboring states in the Midwest, Sen. Mark Kirk in Illinois and Sen. Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, face tough reelection prospects.

Kirk is easily the most vulnerable incumbent of the cycle.

In deep-blue Illinois, Kirk will have to run about 10 points ahead of the Republican presidential candidate in the state, estimates Geoffrey Skelley of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

That would mean running a near-perfect campaign, and few believe that Kirk, with his propensity for grabbing controversial headlines, is a candidate capable of pulling that off.

Republicans argue that Kirk has cut a moderate profile in the Senate and note that he has outperformed in a swing district in the House.

They also point to the Democratic primary in the state that has pitted the party’s establishment, which is backing Rep. Tammy Duckworth, against many in the African-American community, who support former Chicago Urban League President Andrea Zopp.

But whoever emerges from that contest will be the heavy favorite to defeat Kirk and return President Obama’s old Senate seat to Democrats.

In Wisconsin, Johnson’s prospects appear better, but not by much. Polling shows former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold with a healthy lead early on. Johnson defeated Feingold in 2010, but that was on much more favorable political terrain for Republicans.

Johnson will have to upset a pattern of Democratic Senate contenders running even with the presidential candidate in a state that hasn’t gone for the Republican presidential nominee in more than 30 years.



REPUBLICAN FIREWALL: Ohio, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania

For Republicans to maintain the Senate, they’ll need to win at least one of these three swing states that have gone for the Democratic presidential nominees in recent elections.

Republicans believe that in Sens. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) and Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), they’re trotting out strong, well-funded candidates capable of delivering, even if their states go blue in the presidential race.

In Ohio, Portman has so far run the strongest campaign of any candidate on either side. Portman has rolled out support from nearly the entirety of the GOP establishment in the Buckeye State; has been burying his Democratic challenger, former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, with an early ad barrage; and sits on a whopping $11 million in campaign cash.

Democrats acknowledge they’re going to be outspent in the race but need Strickland to at least be competitive on the money front. Strickland’s third-quarter Federal Election Commission filing will say a lot about his strength as a challenger.

In New Hampshire, Ayotte has a tough draw in Hassan, a top-tier candidate who may be the biggest get for Democrats this cycle. Insiders on both sides say that with Hassan running, the race is a true toss-up.

The two experienced, well-known and admired female candidates pitted against one another in a high-stakes contest in New Hampshire — where the presidential spotlight will be bright — will make this one of the most competitive races of the cycle.

In Pennsylvania, Toomey is in the most precarious position of the three.

The Keystone State is solid blue in presidential election years. However, Toomey stays out of the Endangered category by virtue of his substantial early fundraising advantage, his deep ties to conservative groups that will work tirelessly on his behalf and the fact that Pennsylvania has a history of ticket splitting.

In addition, a strong Democratic challenger has yet to emerge.

Establishment Democrats appear to be gravitating toward Katie McGinty, the former chief of staff to Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf. Republicans gleefully point out that McGinty finished last in the state’s gubernatorial primary in 2014.

But suburban Pittsburgh Mayor John Fetterman is running a serious campaign, and former Rep. Joe Sestak, though despised by many Democrats, is still hanging around. Sestak lost to Toomey by only two points in 2010, a wave election year for Republicans.

Depending on the Democratic winner, Toomey could be in big trouble.



WILDCARDS: Florida and Nevada

Candidates on both sides have much to prove in these two purple states.

On the Democratic side in Florida, Reps. Patrick Murphy and Alan Grayson are intent on embarrassing and destroying one another.

Establishment Democrats are firmly behind Murphy, who they believe will be a top-tier general-election candidate. But they worry that Grayson, a liberal firebrand, could do real damage to Murphy.

Grayson’s third-quarter fundraising haul will be closely watched to see if he’s able to deliver on his boasts of having one of the largest national grassroots donor bases in Congress. Of course, the independently wealthy Grayson could self-fund his campaign.

Florida Republicans face a drawn-out primary of their own, with four candidates in the race and potentially more to come.

Rep. Ron DeSantis, an Iraq War veteran, has the backing of several fiscally conservative groups. Carlos López-Cantera, Florida’s first Hispanic lieutenant governor, is in. So is Rep. David Jolly, a first-term House member who surprised political watchers by edging Democrat Alex Sink in a special election last year.

Primaries are not an issue in Nevada, where Democrats and Republicans are both bullish on their prospects.

Both parties are running candidates who look excellent on paper but who will be running alone statewide for the first time in the Silver State, which went for Obama in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012.

Democrats are running a Hispanic woman, Lt. Gov. Catherine Cortez Masto, who is Sen. Harry Reid’s handpicked successor. On the Republican side, Rep. Joe Heck is an Iraq War veteran who has run strong campaigns before in his swing district.



NO-SHOWS: Colorado and North Carolina

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet should be the most vulnerable Democrat running for reelection, but Republicans can’t find anyone to run against him.

The list of Republicans who have passed on the race is long, leaving the party to rely on a handful of untested or obscure candidates.

Republicans point to then-Rep. Cory Gardner’s late entrance in the race in 2014 as evidence that a dark horse could still emerge, but Bennet’s campaign is in full swing, and he’s racked up several strong fundraising quarters already.

That same scenario is playing out for Democrats looking to take out Republican Sen. Richard Burr in North Carolina.

Former Sen. Kay Hagan will not be making a comeback, and Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx also has declined to run, leaving Democrats to plumb the depths of their second tier.

Democrats similarly argue that it’s too early to panic, pointing to former Sen. Hagan’s late entrance into the 2008 Senate race, when she defeated former Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

[Longiron]

Except for Lee and CRUZ and maybe 1 or 2 others not including rand Paul who sold out to Mitch McConnell the rest are RINOS and Traitors. With leaders like McConnell and Cororyn (spelling) who needs the DEMS. They run the place NOW and very possible can take back the Senate. The RINOGOP earned it ??

[truth_seeker]

The major problem with the Republican Party is they applaud Kelly Ayotte as a Tea Party hero to elect her, only to start the predictable name calling once she holds office and actually must vote and govern.

It happens over, and over. Paul, Rubio, Haley, just to name a few.

[libertybele]

The major problem with the Republican Party is they applaud Kelly Ayotte as a Tea Party hero to elect her, only to start the predictable name calling once she holds office and actually must vote and govern.

It happens over, and over. Paul, Rubio, Haley, just to name a few.

I think those running proclaim themselves as "Tea" and other groups that call themselves Tea jump in.  I have found that Ayotte is far from being a conservative and very much a RINO.  Rubio was very well liked at first, especially in Florida till he turned tail and went against what he preached in order to get into the Senate.  Unfortunately, most candidates preach one thing to get elected and vote differently once they are in - not uncommon at all.

The major problem that I see with voters is that they vote for the candidate based on how good they can sell themselves rather than doing research and checking them out. 

[Relic]

I think those running proclaim themselves as "Tea" and other groups that call themselves Tea jump in.  I have found that Ayotte is far from being a conservative and very much a RINO.  Rubio was very well liked at first, especially in Florida till he turned tail and went against what he preached in order to get into the Senate.  Unfortunately, most candidates preach one thing to get elected and vote differently once they are in - not uncommon at all.

The major problem that I see with voters is that they vote for the candidate based on how good they can sell themselves rather than doing research and checking them out.

The problem definition is simple. The problem resolution is anything but simple.

The problem: We elect people we expect to represent us. Most people understand that there are compromises, and that our elected officials won't always do what we want them to do. It's annoying, but acceptable. When those elected officials almost never do what they promised, or what you expect, that is where the schism arises.

The solution: The only real solution, is for the entire public to pay attention, and vote according to a politicians actions. Not going to happen anytime soon. So, those of us who do pay attention come here and go at each other's throats. On one side is the group that says: Keep elected GOP candidates. You don't get what you want, the politicians ignore you, and most likely dislike their base, but vote for them. I fail to see how that becomes a win. The other side says, keep voting them out until you get a good one. How's that working for us? Not so good. The machine is stronger than we are. Seemingly good candidates are corrupted before their freshman orientation is over.

I firmly believe it's two wings of a uniparty, and people like me are not a consideration in anything they plan.

[Longiron]

The only answer RELIC is another PARTY. It will happen sooner or later. Let the RINOGOP pick another candidate and LOSE, again. THE RINOGOP needs some competition. Let the current members run for office on the DEM ticket. A 3rd party scare the sh** out of the RINOGOP and they know it will work and they go the way of the Whig party,. Why do you think they wanted TRUMP to sign that little pledge that means nothing. He is running 3rd party NOW and they know it.

[jmyrlefuller]

The only answer RELIC is another PARTY. It will happen sooner or later. Let the RINOGOP pick another candidate and LOSE, again. THE RINOGOP needs some competition. Let the current members run for office on the DEM ticket. A 3rd party scare the sh** out of the RINOGOP and they know it will work and they go the way of the Whig party,. Why do you think they wanted TRUMP to sign that little pledge that means nothing. He is running 3rd party NOW and they know it.

And yet the Democrats have survived since Jefferson. Of course, they don't represent what Jefferson stands for anymore, certainly not! They just change their views to fit whatever the masses want, and nowadays they've figured out how to influence what the masses want!

[aligncare]

I noticed some folks here don't give their age on their profile. I think it's important information when discussion turns to politics. A political opinion coming from a 23-year-old has a different level of gravitas than one coming from a 60-year-old. Just saying.

[Relic]

I noticed some folks here don't give their age on their profile. I think it's important information when discussion turns to politics. A political opinion coming from a 23-year-old has a different level of gravitas than one coming from a 60-year-old. Just saying.

Eh, it's not that important, but I updated mine. It's not a secret, I'm almost 58.

[Longiron]

I noticed some folks here don't give their age on their profile. I think it's important information when discussion turns to politics. A political opinion coming from a 23-year-old has a different level of gravitas than one coming from a 60-year-old. Just saying.

Most 23 year old should not be allowed to vote yet or get drafted when they had one. To much college or HS LIBS cog webs in their mind and just getting into the real world. Realize that will never happen BUT the real world thing is right for most 23 year olds???. Funny most come out into the real world as LIBERAL. Let them get a job, pay taxes, have couple kids, mortgage, divorced or high rent payments and by the time they are 30 they get real conservative. Not all but some!

[jmyrlefuller]

Most 23 year old should not be allowed to vote yet or get drafted when they had one. To much college or HS LIBS cog webs in their mind and just getting into the real world. Realize that will never happen BUT the real world thing is right for most 23 year olds???. Funny most come out into the real world as LIBERAL. Let them get a job, pay taxes, have couple kids, mortgage, divorced or high rent payments and by the time they are 30 they get real conservative. Not all but some!

Hey, before you start bashing us, realize I'm only in my late 20s. (Granted, I'm quite unusual in a number of respects, which has put a severe dent in my ability to foster relationships with people my own age.)

If you think high rent, broken relationships and taxes are going to convince people of my generation that conservatism is the way to go, you have another thing coming. This generation believes that conservatism is to BLAME for those things! No, it is not until they actually succeed in the real world that conservatism becomes a real viable solution, and with the current economy, not a lot of us are succeeding. You end up with a lot of people in this Peter Pan syndrome, never wanting to grow up. And with the previous generation being the first real one where divorce was commonplace, the shell-shocked parents are more than eager not to kick their kids out of the nest.

[aligncare]

Hey, before you start bashing us, realize I'm only in my late 20s. (Granted, I'm quite unusual in a number of respects, which has put a severe dent in my ability to foster relationships with people my own age.)

If you think high rent, broken relationships and taxes are going to convince people of my generation that conservatism is the way to go, you have another thing coming. This generation believes that conservatism is to BLAME for those things! No, it is not until they actually succeed in the real world that conservatism becomes a real viable solution, and with the current economy, not a lot of us are succeeding. You end up with a lot of people in this Peter Pan syndrome, never wanting to grow up. And with the previous generation being the first real one where divorce was commonplace, the shell-shocked parents are more than eager not to kick their kids out of the nest.

Thanks for that perspective. A compelling account, and plausible.