http://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2015/09/15/5-reasons-donald-trump-cant-win-the-gop-nominationAs the Trump carnival rolls on there is no question that his reality show disguised as a presidential campaign has not only outlasted the predictions of many political observers, including myself, but has arguably gained momentum heading into the fall. There is also no question that, at least in the short-term, he's harming the Republican Party's brand among Hispanic and female voters while serving as a tremendous distraction from an otherwise deep and well-qualified bench of Republican candidates.
For Republicans who care deeply about winning back the White House in 2016 and appreciate the consequences that are at stake in this election, the "Summer of Trump" has been a source of great frustration and the months ahead could cause further consternation. But as any astute political observer knows – and we see it every election cycle – a week can be a lifetime in politics and six months can be an eternity. Both voters and the media often have very short-term memories and the fortunes of a campaign can turn on a dime over an unforeseen event, a lack of rhetorical judgment or systemic institutional flaws within the campaign that had previously gone unnoticed.
So it's important to take a step back and to consider the many reasons why, with more than four months until the first primary and almost six months until "Super Tuesday," it's far too early to make any definitive predictions for either party. More important, despite the polls and outsized media coverage, the reality is that there are many reasons why Trump still remains a long-shot to win the Republican nomination. Here are my top five:
1. Money – That may surprise people. After all nearly every story written about Trump's presidential campaign is inevitably accompanied by the word "billionaire" and the phrase "who has vowed to self-finance." Yet while there is no question that Trump is a very wealthy man, the operative words remain "who has vowed." To date, not only has Trump not spent even the smallest fraction of his reported $300 million in available cash, there is no indication in his long personal and professional history that he has any intention of actually doing so. To the contrary, Trump amassed his wealth largely by gambling with other people's money while risking/investing very little personal capital. In fact, on countless occasions over the years Trump has bragged about how little personal money he's had to invest in many business deals. There is nothing in his history to suggest that Trump is seriously prepared to spend any significant portion of his personal wealth despite his boastful rhetoric. When you consider that Mitt Romney raised and spent nearly $400 million just to win the Republican nomination, including tens of millions in personal money, and competitors like former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush have already raised over $100 million that they're now preparing to deploy, that's a big deal.
2. The Real Campaign Is Just Beginning – To date, earned media coverage has largely dictated this race and while Trump has been masterful in manipulating the media to low information voters, the real campaign is only just beginning. And when it comes to negative ads Trump's opponents have a lot of material to work with. As much as voters claim to dislike negative ads the reality is that they are very effective and voters will be introduced to the real Donald Trump in the weeks ahead.
3. He's Not a Conservative – By any measure, Trump is the most liberal GOP frontrunner at any point in recent memory. From his support for single payer health care to his past support for abortion to his calls for massive new tax hikes, which liberal Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren recently praised him for, the reality is that the vast majority of voters do not yet realize that once you cut through his bombastic rhetoric, Trump is to the left on a number of issues important to GOP primary voters. Expect his opponents to hammer Trump and to drive home his real record and past rhetoric.
4. Lack of a Serious Campaign Infrastructure – As we saw in the 2012 GOP primary with the periodic rise of candidates like Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and others, the reality is that earned media and even outside Super PAC money can only take a candidate so far. Organized ground game and voter targeting efforts backed by in-state staff are critical in the long-term, and to date, the Trump campaign does not appear to have invested in a serious campaign infrastructure.
5. Ignorance and Self-Immolation – In just the past week, Trump displayed his complete ignorance of foreign policy in an interview with conservative radio show host Hugh Hewitt where he could not identify any of the major terrorist leaders in the world, which was followed by an insulting personal attack on the only female candidate in the race, Carly Fiorina. The lack of rhetorical self-discipline which some of his supporters see as an attribute today will inevitably come back to bite him as voters grow weary of his act. Everyone loves a carnival barker and reality shows can be amusing but when you get to the point of seriously deciding if that person should be the leader of the free world, expect many Republican voters to pull the lever for someone else.
