Among Republicans, CNN poll shows a tight race between Trump and Carson

[Formerly Once-Ler]

ORC International conducted a poll for CNN asking about the 2016 Republican race. The headline number says Donald Trump 32, Ben Carson 19, and the rest in single digits. Page 29 of the PDF though says that among Republicans, it’s a much tighter race than that.

Obviously it matters to look at what Republicans think, since Republicans are more likely to participate in a Republican primary. And in fact, in some states you can’t even vote in the primary unless you are a registered Republican. “Leaners” don’t even get a ballot sometimes.

Pale pastels love Trump. Trump leads Carson 37-14 (Trump +23, MoE 7.5) among independents who shrug and lean Republican, but can’t find it in them to join a party. But among those with full Republican identification, the race is quite different. Trump leads 28-22-10 (MoE 5.5). Yup, Jeb Bush cracks double digits among Republicans, and Trump’s lead reduces to 6, bringing his race with Carson within the combined margin of error.

I’ve written in the past that the polling this early doesn’t mean what you think it means, which is why most pollsters shy away from attempting to model who the likely voters are at this point in the cycle. But not all polls are created equal, and not all samples are equally representative of people who will choose the 2016 Republican nominee.

So Donald Trump’s ahead, but Ben Carson’s surge is with the right people, if he wants to win the nomination. Carson is surging with Republicans.

Fascinating dynamics working here.  I fully expected the conservatives to abandon Trump early and then hop from candidate to candidate before acquiescing to Governor Bush.  So far they have held strong with Trump but Carson is becoming an attractive alternative.  There are some Trump supporters who won't vote for a black man.  If the conservative vote does split as I expected, and then split again to Fiorina, and again to Cruz, and again...each time shaving off a portion of the anti-establishment vote...in the end only the nativists and rat trolls may be left of Trump's support.

[Scottftlc]

If they "acquiesce" to Bush they accept certain defeat.  He is the one candidate that has absolutely no chance whatsoever of winning a national election.  I'm sure the well-heeled establishment would love that but defeat has never been a problem for them.

[Godzilla]

Trump just needs to say that Carson is an Aunt Jemima who is ugly and bleeds out of wherever.

That ought to be worth another 10% in the polls, right?

'Cause dats fightin' de man... and not being PC, doncha know?

---

And I'll breathe radioactive fire breath on anyone that disagrees.  For I fight!  Not like all those limp-wristed pantywaist Republicans!

Godzilla/Zod 2016
Kickin' @$$ and Takin' names!

[Fishrrman]

Once-Ler wrote above:
[[ I fully expected the conservatives to abandon Trump early and then hop from candidate to candidate before acquiescing to Governor Bush.  ]]

This guy won't be "acquiescin'" to ¡Jeb!

Take that prediction and stuff it where the sun don't shine!

[Oceander]

Trump just needs to say that Carson is an Aunt Jemima who is ugly and bleeds out of wherever.

That ought to be worth another 10% in the polls, right?

'Cause dats fightin' de man... and not being PC, doncha know?

---

And I'll breathe radioactive fire breath on anyone that disagrees.  For I fight!  Not like all those limp-wristed pantywaist Republicans!

Godzilla/Zod 2016
Kickin' @$$ and Takin' names!

Very true.

[olde north church]

Trump just needs to say that Carson is an Aunt Jemima who is ugly and bleeds out of wherever.

That ought to be worth another 10% in the polls, right?

'Cause dats fightin' de man... and not being PC, doncha know?

---

And I'll breathe radioactive fire breath on anyone that disagrees.  For I fight!  Not like all those limp-wristed pantywaist Republicans!

Godzilla/Zod 2016
Kickin' @$$ and Takin' names!

I'll play.  You're the bigger bleep.  You win.

[bkepley]

I'll play.  You're the bigger bleep.  You win.

I see you have a disclaimer. 

[olde north church]

I see you have a disclaimer.

It is not application in this situation.  It's like Colorado, Nebraska and Rhode Island in contest.  You know.  And other places where prohibited by law.

[Godzilla]

I'll play.  You're the bigger bleep.  You win.

I fight!  I don't let anyone talk about me without fighting back!

You're a mediocre poster with a bad hairpiece!  Neener-Neener!

Syncophants, tell me how great I am!

Well... look at that, my poll ratings are throught the roof, for I'm just 'telling it like it is'!

Oh, and don't you know who I am?  I'm rich!  Really, really rich!

---

Spitting image of Trump, I am. 

And you called it, he *IS* an @sshole.  It's too bad that you could only see it in a mirror reflection of the man.

[olde north church]

I fight!  I don't let anyone talk about me without fighting back!

You're a mediocre poster with a bad hairpiece!  Neener-Neener!

Syncophants, tell me how great I am!

Well... look at that, my poll ratings are throught the roof, for I'm just 'telling it like it is'!

They allow your type to shit on the carpet.  Let them clean up after you.

[bkepley]

They allow your type to shit on the carpet.  Let them clean up after you.

I think maybe you should call it a night?

[sinkspur]

The funniest line of the campaign so far comes from Bobby Jindal.

"Trump doesn't read the Bible.  You know how I know?  Because he's not in it."

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Once-Ler wrote above:
Take that prediction and stuff it where the sun don't shine!

no

[Formerly Once-Ler]

They allow your type to shit on the carpet.  Let them clean up after you.

Isn't it time for another opus?

[olde north church]

Isn't it time for another opus?

I've wanted to know but too well raised to ask, why do you have a picture of Carl "Campaign" Cameron as your avatar?  Thanks

[bkepley]

I've wanted to know but too well raised to ask, why do you have a picture of Carl "Campaign" Cameron as your avatar?  Thanks

When someone translates this to english we can decide if it is pertinent.