Iran deal opponents need only four of 14 undecided Democratic senators to put President Barack Obama in the awkward spot of vetoing an attempt to scuttle a crowning foreign policy achievement. That’s set off a complicated race between hawks and the White House to win over an eclectic group of senators, each with his or her own particular concerns.
Any casual sports fan can attest that an almost .800 winning percentage is no easy feat, but that’s what Obama and his Hill allies need to pull off. And people on both sides of the rancorous Iran debate concede they have no idea whether Obama and his congressional allies can get there.
It’s hard to imagine a liberal stalwart like Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) — who is formally undecided — coming out against the deal. But other senators are much tougher to read, even to people they speak with regularly. Among the enigmas are the top Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, Maryland’s Ben Cardin, and Cory Booker, the star freshman from New Jersey caught between his loyalty to Obama and fierce opposition from Jewish groups.
“Each has their own particular or unique approach,” said Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.). “We’re going after any Senate Democrat.”
“One of the reasons is that I’m confident we’re going to get 60 votes against the agreement,” said former Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, an independent who allied with Democrats and is now a forceful opponent of the deal, “is because Chuck Schumer is out there against it,” referring to the New York senator and presumed next Democratic leader.
Here’s POLITICO’s look at the five key Democratic swing votes who will likely decide which side comes out on top:
Ben Cardin of Maryland
If there’s a bellwether left in the Senate Democratic caucus, it’s the ranking member of the Foreign Relations Committee. A Jewish lawmaker from Baltimore, Cardin helped draft the law to give Congress a vote on the Iran deal with his triangulation between a White House that feared congressional oversight and Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), now an opponent of the deal.
The Maryland Democrat is a more conciliatory figure than Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), who lost his top spot on the panel after being indicted and is a strident critic of the president’s Iran policy. And though Cardin is more consistently supportive of the president’s foreign policy portfolio than Menendez, the Marylander has been irked by not being able to see a document detailing a deal between international inspectors and Iran.
Any Democrats waiting to see which way Cardin goes will have to sit tight: He’s not expected to announce a position until late next week at the earliest, and Corker says his friend and co-leader of the committee is truly undecided.
“My conversations have not been to try to influence him and he knows that. We share the desire for the Senate to appropriately vote on this issue,” Corker said in a phone interview. “We’re both grown-ups.”
Cory Booker of New Jersey
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http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/iran-deal-democrats-barack-obama-senate-213130#ixzz3kC9UnTJC
