I think Donald Trump has decided to rewrite the rules of conventional politics and run a campaign the way Madison Avenue types have always thought campaigns should be run, which is to say as pure marketing campaigns, not marketing campaigns disguised as philosophical discussions. And so, Trump uses his celebrity and popularity to suck out hundreds of millions of dollars worth of TV exposure while his competition is in Iowa doing a coffee clatch with a dozen people. In order to keep it going, he has to continually push the envelope, testing the political and cultural barriers just enough to capture attention to himself without disgruntling too many people. So far, he has played the game with a certain genius that has the rest of the Republican field -- especially Jeb Bush -- befuddled and off-kilter.
I don't support Trump. Early on I was appalled at the thought of Donald Trump as POTUS. I am no longer. But I still wonder how on earth this pied piper with bad hair has managed to entice so many people. In the end, though, what I think does not matter, any more than what I thought of Mitt Romney mattered. What does matter is that Trump's supporters have his back and they will stand with him to the end. So Trump has solidified his position as one of the three finalists. Now it's a battle between 15 people for the other two spots. And pretty soon it could be a battle between 15 people for one spot.
If I were laying odds, I'd say the odds of Trump getting the nomination are about 33 percent. Still not great, but higher than anyone else in the field.