The chances are greater of a new war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas than of a medium-range cease-fire between them. The likelihood of a new war is also greater than that of success in reconciliation efforts between Fatah and Hamas, based on resolution of the salary crisis among civil servants or on lifting the closure of the Strip.
These are the findings of a report by the conflict-resolution NGO International Crisis Group. The report was released Tuesday on the first anniversary of the cease-fire that ended the 50-day war in Gaza.
According to the report, neither side is interested in war, but the root causes for last year’s war are still there: siege of Gaza, economic and financial crisis, and Hamas-Fatah rivalry. The report also summarizes the tangle of opposing interests and frictions between Hamas and Israel and Hamas and the Palestinian Authority and Egypt.
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