Author Topic: New poll shows Trump competitive with Clinton. Really?  (Read 399 times)

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bkepley

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New poll shows Trump competitive with Clinton. Really?
« on: August 19, 2015, 07:07:38 pm »
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A new CNN/ORC poll shows Donald Trump gaining ground against Hillary Clinton. In many respects, the poll says more about Mrs. Clinton than Mr. Trump.
 
Peter Grier
Christian Science Monitor

Would Donald Trump actually be an electable general election candidate?

That’s the question pinging around the Washington political world Wednesday in the wake of a new CNN/ORC poll that shows The Donald running only six points behind likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in a head-to-head matchup among registered voters.

That represents significant movement in recent weeks, according to this poll series. In July, Mr. Trump trailed Mrs. Clinton by 16 points in CNN/ORC numbers. And to think the punditocracy thought Trump was finished after he opined that former prisoner of war Sen. John McCain wasn’t a true war hero.

Here’s our take: These numbers don’t really reflect how Trump might fare next November as nominee. It’s early. This is one poll. Political trends aren’t serious until there are more data. We in the media say that all the time but seldom follow our own advice.

Head-to-head matchups prior to the actual nomination are a particularly iffy form of survey. They measure the heat of a moment. Who knows what’s going to happen over the coming months during the actual political campaign? Predicting the future of anything involving Donald Trump at this point is a fruitless exercise.
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And Clinton’s leads are not wide. The CNN/ORC survey has her six points behind Scott Walker as well as Trump. She’s nine points behind Jeb Bush, and 10 behind Carly Fiorina.

In contrast she’s got an overall 25 point lead over Bernie Sanders.

This bears repeating: Clinton remains the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic nomination, but the general election is likely to be close. Very close. That’s something enthusiastic Clinton supporters tend to overlook.

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Interesting point made here...she's got a massive lead over Bernie Sanders at this point but a very slim lead over the Republicans period.

Offline EdinVA

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Re: New poll shows Trump competitive with Clinton. Really?
« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2015, 07:16:36 pm »
Interesting point made here...she's got a massive lead over Bernie Sanders at this point but a very slim lead over the Republicans period.

I think the obama backlash is so sever that it will be a very tough road to hoe for the dems to win the whitehouse.
I am a bit concerned about republicans holding congress though.