http://nypost.com/2015/08/13/amnesty-may-be-the-key-to-winning-the-gop-nomination/By Liz Mair
August 13, 2015 | 8:06pm
It has become conventional wisdom among Beltway Republican strategists and the mainstream media that support for some form of legal status for unauthorized immigrants — “amnesty,” per restrictionist forces in the immigration debate — is a liability for Republican candidates, and presidential contenders in particular.
If you work in national Republican politics, as I do, you hear this continually from fellow consultants and staffers and indeed the national press corps, as I have for years now: In order to avoid “trouble” with “the base,” so-and-so has to move in a hawkish direction on immigration; so-and-so cannot win a primary, or cannot win a primary with ease and comfort, without doing so.
For months, the country has been told that the popularity of Donald Trump (hopefully now on the wane, but nonetheless a feature of the early stage of the 2016 race) is an indicator that to win over conservatives, candidates need to adopt a line more fitting of 1970s labor unions and liberal population-control enthusiasts than one in line with Ronald Reagan’s policies.
Trump is, after all, an advocate of mass deportation.
It’s somehow what the political consultant class has come to believe. Yet the data show at best the meme is downright false and at worst the picture is far murkier.
Recent evidence of this comes in the form of a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll conducted July 26-30, which showed 53 percent of Republicans surveyed support “amnesty” as it’s defined by anti-immigration groups like FAIR, NumbersUSA and the Center for Immigration Studies: 36 percent support a pathway to citizenship itself, and 17 percent prefer a pathway to legal status. A minority, albeit a significant one — 43 percent — supports identification and deportation of unauthorized immigrants.
A Pew Research Center poll from early June 2015 shows that 56 percent of Republicans support allowing unauthorized immigrants a pathway to staying in the country.
A CNN/ORC poll last year showed that 72 percent of Republicans favor allowing unauthorized immigrants to stay and become eligible for citizenship.
A Public Religion Research Institute poll from June 2014 shows that 51 percent of Republicans support a pathway to citizenship for unauthorized immigrants.
Nor is it the only evidence that in a GOP primary, support for “amnesty” (by which we mean in legislative, as opposed to highly objectionable executive order, form) may actually help more than it hurts.
Yes, the nomination process leads off in Iowa, a state famed for its more immigration-skeptical caucus-goer pool, and home to restrictionist Rep. Steve King. But it’s often concluded, de facto, in Florida, where legislated “amnesty” sells, even among Republicans.
Political observers, reporters and strategists old enough to remember the 2008 fight for the Republican nomination will recall that immigration was generally regarded as a huge liability for John McCain.
Instead, McCain locked down the GOP nomination when he won Florida, a victory that veteran political strategists inside and outside of the McCain campaign itself doubt would have been possible had McCain maintained a more anti-immigration stance.
As Soren Dayton, a former McCain staffer, put it to me, “when it came down to the actual task of politics, building a coalition and winning votes on election day, immigration helped McCain run up numbers in some critical constituencies and get over the top.”
Exit polling provided by Dayton backs that assertion up: In a closed Florida primary, McCain beat Mitt Romney, an “anti-amnesty” candidate, by 36 percent to 31 percent.
Romney won white voters by one point; the reason McCain beat him overall was because he won a massive 54 percent of the Hispanic vote to Romney’s puny 14 percent, and 12 percent of the primary electorate was Hispanic.
Something like 60 percent of the Florida GOP primary electorate that year took a “no deportation” position.
In the last three GOP contests, he who has won Florida has won the nomination.
And short of an overwhelming money advantage (which would also be tough to amass, given where GOP donors are on immigration policy), the only “deportation” you’ll find in a Republican presidential primary in Florida is that of the anti-immigration candidate from the race.
