How Big a Third-Party Threat Is Trump? If “The Donald” loses the Republican presidential nomination and runs as a third-party candidate, he definitely could put a crimp in GOP hopes to reclaim the White House.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 29% of Likely U.S. Voters say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for Trump if he is not chosen as the GOP nominee and runs as a third party candidate. But that includes only 14% who say they are Very Likely to vote for him. Sixty-eight percent (68%) say they are unlikely to vote for the billionaire developer if he runs as a third-party presidential candidate, with 51% who say it’s Not At All Likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Worrisome for Republicans, however, is the finding that over a third (36%) of Likely GOP Voters say they are likely to vote for Trump if he’s a third-party candidate, with 18% who are Very Likely to do so. One-in-three (33%) voters who are not affiliated with either major party also are likely Trump voters, including 16% who say they are Very Likely to vote for him if he runs third-party.
Even 19% of Democrats describe themselves as likely Trump voters, although that includes just nine percent (9%) who say they are Very Likely to vote that way.
Rasmussen Reports spokesman Leon Sculti is available for media comment on these poll results. Call 732-776-9777x205 or send e-mail to leon.sculti@rasmussenreports.com to schedule now.
Right now, Trump leads the pack of 16 major Republican presidential hopefuls, going into their first debate this week.
Forty-six percent (46%) of all voters say they have voted for an independent candidate not affiliated with either major political party. Among these voters, 34% say they are likely to vote for Trump if he ends up running as a third-party presidential candidate, including 18% who say they are Very Likely to do so.
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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on July 28-29, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
At this early stage of the game, name recognition is key, and the headlines Trump has been making in recent weeks have undoubtedly helped push him to the top of the heap.
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