http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/house/249985-parties-fear-an-august-surpriseAugust 02, 2015, 07:30 am
Parties fear an August surprise
By Cristina Marcos
Beware the ides of August.
Congress’s summer recess is supposed to be a quiet time that gives lawmakers a chance to meet with constituents, raise money and maybe get a little rest.
Yet nearly every year, a controversy erupts that shakes the political landscape, at times causing problems for Republicans and Democrats alike.
The most famous example came in 2009, when Tea Party activists confronted lawmakers at town halls over their consideration of ObamaCare.
While that political heat mostly burned Democrats, Republicans faced an uprising of their own in 2013, when constituents demanded that they defund the healthcare law. That campaign culminated in the first government shutdown in 17 years.
That same year, lawmakers cut their recess short to consider President Obama’s call for military action against Syria. They returned to Washington to attend intelligence briefings, but political support to declare war over the use of chemical weapons against Syrian civilians never materialized.
Sometimes the recess bring a political curveball, like last year, when the racially charged police shooting in Ferguson, Mo., sparked a national debate over how African Americans are treated by law enforcement.
This year, lawmakers are headed home with a debate raging over the Iran nuclear deal — but it’s far from certain that the controversial accord will remain No. 1 on the agenda.
Here are some candidates to deliver this year’s “August surprise.”
1. Planned Parenthood videos. Republicans are spoiling for a fight over the Planned Parenthood after the release of undercover videos that show officials discussing the use of aborted fetal tissue.
Eighteen House Republicans signed on to a letter this week pledging they would not vote for any spending bill that provides funding for Planned Parenthood. House and Senate GOP leaders wary of a potential government shutdown threat have not endorsed the strategy to date.
The Center for Medical Progress has released four undercover videos so far, and says it might release as many as a dozen more in the coming weeks. The drip, drip, drip of more videos could add more pressure on the GOP to hold firm on defunding Planned Parenthood when they return in September — especially if one of the videos contains footage that is politically explosive.
But the White House has threatened to veto any bill that withholds money for the organization, setting up a potential showdown with only a few weeks to resolve the issue before government funding expires on Oct. 1.
2. Iran. Congress faces a mid-September deadline for voting on the internationally negotiated agreement to curtail Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for economic sanctions relief.
Lawmakers will be away from Washington for the bulk of the days leading up to the vote, leaving plenty of time for an international incident to change the political dynamic.
The White House is launching an intense lobbying effort to ensure congressional Democrats will sustain President Obama’s veto of a resolution disapproving of the Iran deal.
But groups opposed to the Iran deal, including the Israeli lobbying powerhouse American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), are launching an aggressive multi-million dollar effort to deter lawmakers from supporting the deal during the recess.
Many Democrats are still reviewing the deal and remain officially undecided, which could lead to an anxious few weeks for the White House.
3. Donald Trump. It’ll be showtime for Donald Trump and the rest of the 2016 Republican presidential field on Aug. 6, when Fox News will hold the first debate of the cycle for the GOP candidates.
Trump, who is leading the rest of the 17-member GOP field in recent polls, will be center stage at the event, where he’ll be face to face with his rivals for the first time.
While all eyes will be on the real estate mogul, all of the leading Republican contenders will have a chance to make waves at the debate. An unflattering soundbite, heated exchange, or unexpectedly good performance by any of them could be a game changer in the 2016 presidential primary.
4. Anti-Boehner effort. The resolution introduced by Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) to oust Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) a day before the House departed for the August recess largely fell flat with conservative rebels and establishment Republicans. The resolution collected only three co-sponsors and appears unlikely to ever get a vote.
But Tea Party groups have been fundraising and mobilizing their members off of the effort. Constituents in Republican strongholds may bring it up during town halls or meetings with their representatives during the recess.
Many Republicans are worried that the anti-Boehner effort could be a distraction over the recess.
“This really distracts us from what we should be talking about, and that’s the Iran deal,” Rep. Rich Nugent (R-Fla.), who lost a Rules Committee seat over voting against Boehner for Speaker in January, told The Hill on the House’s last day of session.
“That’s what we ought to be focusing all of our attention on while we’re here and then when we go back home, so when we come back in September the American people understand what’s going on.”
