http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/243275-gop-2016-must-win-states-for-the-partys-top-contendersMay 28, 2015, 04:49 pm
Republicans place bets on their must-win states for 2016
By Niall Stanage
Candidates for the Republican presidential nomination will soon have to decide where to place their chips, as they look to keep their campaigns afloat — and avoid disastrous finishes — in the key early voting states.
Unsentimental assessments are required about which states are most favorable to their chances, and which combination of contests might unlock a path to victory. The question of whether to compete in states where a candidate has little chance of winning is just as difficult.
Earlier this week, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker made news by suggesting to conservative radio host Laura Ingraham that he might not compete in Florida. Walker cited the likely strength of two home state candidates, Sen. Marco Rubio and former Gov. Jeb Bush. But his words were still met with consternation in the Sunshine State.
“It’s such a big and competitive state that Republicans have to pay attention to Florida,” said Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida. “I don’t think it was a particularly well thought-out statement.”
Arriving at the correct strategy is enormously difficult, especially at this distance. Get it wrong, and a candidacy can be stopped in its tracks. Just ask former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, who took a pass on several early states in 2008, betting the house on Florida— and losing. Get it right, however, and the big prize is suddenly within reach.
Below, The Hill takes a look at each major candidate’s potential route to victory.
Scott Walker
Walker is polling strongly everywhere at present. But the conservative tilt of the Republican electorate in Iowa makes the Hawkeye State a more critical one for him than New Hampshire.
The Wisconsin governor’s base in a neighboring state is an advantage and he currently tops the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average in Iowa.
But high expectations could also become a burden. Anything short of a win in Iowa would be a disappointment to Walker, and a finish outside the top two would create serious difficulties for him.
David Yepsen, who covered the caucuses for decades for The Des Moines Register, offered up an unexpected comparison with Howard Dean, who appeared to be steamrolling the Democratic field in Iowa in 2004 only to end up placing third in the caucuses.
“Walker is in that same position where he has started off with such a big surge,” Yepsen said. “He needs to maintain that momentum.”
But if he won both the early contests, it’s game-on for Walker.
Jeb Bush
For Bush, the question in Iowa is stark: How much can the caucuses hurt him?
Expectations for Bush in Iowa were modest but he is performing even worse. He ranks a lowly joint-fifth in the RCP average, and the most recent poll, from Quinnipiac University, placed him seventh, with only five percent support.
Bush could, of course, duck Iowa and concentrate on New Hampshire, where he is at or near the top of most polls. A recent story from Buzzfeed suggested he would do just that, although it was met with furious pushback from aides to the former Florida governor.
The ‘Iowa-avoidance’ strategy is fraught with its own dangers.
“While it might be difficult for Bush to win Iowa, if he can finish second or third, there is value in performing and beating other candidates,” said Craig Robinson, a former political director of the Iowa GOP. “By not going for it in every state, you’re allowing other candidates opportunities.”
Marco Rubio
Rubio appears to be on the rise in Iowa, where he now ranks second in the RCP average. But he could be vulnerable to a pincer movement, with more dyed-in-the-wool conservatives such as Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee pressuring him from the right, while more establishment-friendly caucus-goers back Bush.
Rubio’s position in New Hampshire appears somewhat weaker than in Iowa, though not catastrophically so.
Rubio could survive a failure to win either Iowa or New Hampshire, especially if other candidates incur more serious damage. If the Floridian just remains viable in the early stages, his national profile and fundraising abilities should help on Super Tuesday, March 1, when around eight states are scheduled to vote. Republicans in his native Florida, as well as Illinois and Michigan, are currently slated to vote on March 15.
Rand Paul
For Paul, the situation in the early states is simple: Go hard or go home.
Paul has a legitimate shot at winning both Iowa and New Hampshire. But if he does not emerge victorious in at least one of those contests, his path to the nomination would become very narrow.
The latest Quinnipiac poll showed the Kentucky senator tied with Rubio for second in Iowa, and he appeared in a dead heat with Walker for the top spot in New Hampshire in a recent Bloomberg poll.
But two victories for Paul would likely provoke that the GOP establishment to scramble the jets to stop him. They would have a decent chance of doing so, too.
South Carolina, with its mixture of social conservatives and military families, is very treacherous territory for the libertarian-minded Paul. The March calendar also has high hurdles for him, featuring several states in the Deep South and the industrial Midwest.
Mike Huckabee
Iowa or bust.
Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses in his previous run for the presidency, in 2008, and he needs to repeat the trick this time around.
Huckabee’s belief that he is not given due respect by the media or by GOP power-brokers has some merit, however. If he were to win Iowa and do the same, or come close, in South Carolina, a favorable vista opens up.
Tennessee, Oklahoma, Virginia and North Carolina are, as of now, all set to vote on Super Tuesday, March 1. A week later, Alabama and Mississippi are expected to vote in what has been termed “the SEC primary.”
Ted Cruz
The Texas senator needs a very strong start in Iowa if he is to position himself as a leading conservative in the race — and survive the following contest in New Hampshire, where polling shows him performing at a lower level.
“Iowa is a must-win state for him,” is the verdict of Craig Robinson. “If his campaign is going to launch, it’s going to launch in Iowa.”
Chris Christie
Can he win New Hampshire? Victory there is the only vaguely plausible route for the New Jersey governor who has struggled mightily with the aftershocks of the “Bridgegate” scandal. Even a Granite State victory may not provide Christie with enough momentum to remain a leading candidate into March.
The Longshots:
Rick Santorum and Rick Perry
Could one of the two somehow blast past Walker, Huckabee and Cruz in Iowa to become the standard-bearer of social conservatives? It seems unlikely but it’s their only shot.
Ben Carson
Carson is currently polling at respectable levels but it is difficult to envision him actually winning a primary anywhere. If he fails to gain traction in Iowa, his only chance of making an impact may be in South Carolina.
Lindsey Graham
Graham, who could run primarily to advocate for his hawkish worldview, only really stands a chance in his native South Carolina. Even if he pulled that off, it would likely be discounted as a one-off win for a native son.
John Kasich
A similarly uphill path to Graham’s, with the added disadvantage that his home state of Ohio is at present not slated to vote until March, and on the same day as three other states.
