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Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has erased U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz’s strong lead among Texas Republicans in the volatile and still-developing race for the party’s 2016 presidential nomination, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.Cruz’s 25 percentage-point lead over Walker in October has vanished: The Texan won the support of 20 percent of the state’s registered voters to Walker’s 19 percent — a statistical tie. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and author Ben Carson were tied at 9 percent, and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry was next at 8 percent.“Scott Walker is clearly breathing some of the oxygen on the right. The big takeaway here is that Ted Cruz is still a giant among Texas Republicans — but he is not invulnerable,” said Jim Henson, co-director of the poll and head of the Texas Politics Project at UT-Austin. “Conservatives are willing to look at another candidate who fits that profile.”In the October UT/TT Poll, Cruz registered 27 percent of the support to Walker’s 2 percent. Perry, now running fifth, was running second a few months ago.“This is the first real shakeup in this that we have seen,” Henson said. “We’re now a year out from primary season. It’s not really a race yet, but it is a shift, and people are probably starting to think about it.”Other candidates lagged behind: Mike Huckabee, at 5 percent; Rand Paul and Marco Rubio, at 4 percent; Sarah Palin at 3 percent; Chris Christie, 2 percent; Bobby Jindal, John Kasich and Rick Santorum, at 1 percent; and Carly Fiorina, John Bolton and Lindsey Graham at zero. Thirteen percent of the voters said they have not made up their minds.“It clearly is a jumble,” said Daron Shaw, a professor of government at UT-Austin who co-directs the poll. “Cruz continues to distinguish himself as the Texas candidate, but Walker has made a move — we have a momentum candidate.”That could be a mixed bag for the insurgent, Shaw said. “If you start out strong really early, the other candidates tend to turn their cannons on you.”For the state’s Tea Party voters, it appears to be a three-way race between Cruz, Walker and Carson, in that order. Among voters who said they would remain with the GOP if the Tea Party were separate, the leaders in order were Cruz, Walker, Bush and Perry.“As the field has become a little more crowded, it looks like it has hurt Rand Paul and complicated things that were already complicated for Rick Perry,” Henson said.
The University of Texas/Texas Tribune internet survey of 1,200 registered voters was conducted from Feb. 6 to Feb. 15 and has an overall margin of error of +/- 2.83 percentage points. Among registered voters in Republican primary races, the margin of error is +/- 4.19 percent; in Democratic primary races, it is +/- 4.89 percent. Numbers in charts might not add up to 100 percent because of rounding.
Every time I read somebody claiming their is any organized movement by a GOP, or GOPe, a conspiracy, I remind myself they don't even have the power to tell Santorum or Palin to get out of this publicity opportunity.
and Carly Fiorina, John Bolton and Lindsey Graham at zero.You make a very good point.
Graham is running a one-state campaign, the one where he controls the machine and just happens to have an early primary. He doesn't care about Texas.It appears the right is coalescing around Walker, and I can handle that. As Franklin once quipped…join, or die.
