http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/15/opinion/sunday/what-libyas-unraveling-means.html?ref=opinionWhat Libya’s Unraveling Means
By THE EDITORIAL BOARDFEB. 14, 2015
Largely overshadowed by the crises in Syria, Iraq and Ukraine, Libya’s unraveling has received comparatively little attention over the past few months. As this oil-rich nation veers toward complete chaos, world leaders would be wise to redouble efforts led by the United Nations to broker a power-sharing deal among warring factions.
A few of the Islamist groups vying for control in Libya have pledged allegiance to the Islamic State and carried out the type of barbaric executions that have galvanized international support for the military campaign against the terrorist group in Iraq and Syria. The growth and radicalization of Islamist groups raise the possibility that large parts of Libya could become a satellite of the Islamic State.
“Libya has the same features of potentially becoming as bad as what we’re seeing in Iraq and Syria,” Bernardino León, the United Nations envoy to Libya, said in an interview. “The difference is that Libya is just a few miles away from Europe.”
Libya’s elected Parliament and its government, led by Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thinni, has only tenuous authority, having been run out of Tripoli last summer amid fighting between rival militias formed during the 2011 civil war that led to the ouster and execution of the longtime dictator Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi.
The shell government Mr. Thinni leads, which is recognized by the international community, currently operates out of the eastern city of Bayda, while Parliament meets in the eastern port city of Tobruk. The Libya Dawn movement, a coalition of militias and political factions, has wrested control of the capital and established a rival government.
In recent days, Mr. León’s team has met with leaders from most of the warring factions, including militia leaders, for negotiations that the United Nations hopes will lead to cease-fires and eventually a temporary unity government. If the fighting continues, the country will very likely be partitioned, and an economy that might have had a chance for growth will completely collapse.
Last fall, an Islamist militant group in the eastern city of Derna announced that it had joined the Islamic State, which wants to establish a caliphate in Iraq and Syria. Soon afterward, groups in two other provinces followed suit. Fighters who identify themselves as part of the Islamic State have killed journalists and many other civilians. They took credit for the Nov. 13 bombings targeting the Egyptian and United Arab Emirates embassies in Tripoli. Last month, fighters linked to the Islamic State kidnapped 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians and bombed the Corinthia Hotel in the capital, killing 10 people.
Aref Ali Nayed, the Libyan ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, said in an interview that the militants that have adopted the mantle of the Islamic State could start holding sway over less dogmatic Islamist factions and expand territorial control.
“The Islamists have been very clever at rebranding,” he said. “They have learned the franchising model from McDonald’s. They give you the methodology, standards and propaganda material.”
The chaos has paralyzed the economy of a country that has a relatively small population and abundant energy resources. The one industry that is booming is human smuggling. Taking advantage of the lawlessness, smugglers who use Libya as a way station in moving impoverished sub-Saharan Africans and Syrian refugees to Europe have become increasingly brazen and reckless in their tactics, sending hundreds to their deaths.
During January, more than 3,500 migrants crossed the Mediterranean, according to the Ministry of the Interior in Italy, a dramatic surge compared with the rate of crossings at this time last year. Most journeys originate from Libya. On Wednesday, migration authorities reported that at least 300 migrants appeared to have drowned after setting off from Libya to Italy aboard inflatable boats.
If the diplomatic effort that is underway doesn’t get traction within weeks, Mr. León said, it might be too late for the international community to make a difference. Libyans who have been fighting since the end of the 2011 civil war must take steps to reconcile and start the arduous process of building a functioning state. Western and regional leaders have limited time to put pressure on them by offering incentives and support for those willing to chart a new course. “Libya is falling apart. Politically, financially, the economic situation is disastrous,” Mr. León said. “I don’t think the country can bear a process of months.”
