Poll: Six in ten Republicans favor Romney running By Rick Moran

[mystery-ak]

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2015/01/poll_six_in_ten_republicans_favor_romney_running.html

January 19, 2015
Poll: Six in ten Republicans favor Romney running
By Rick Moran

A new CBS poll shows that 6 in 10 Republicans want Mitt Romney to run for president. That doesn't mean they want to see Mitt win the nomination, but it's depressing to think that someone like Ted Cruz sees only 21% believing he should run. Ditto Rand Paul who only gets support for his candidacy from 27% of GOP voters.

This is a beauty contest poll, to be sure, with name recognition being the most important factor. But you would think that after two failed tries for the presidency, Republican voters wouldn't even give Romney the time of day. Instead, there appears to be a sizable number of them who wouldn't mind going over a cliff in 2016.

    Fifty percent of Republicans would like to see former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush on the campaign trail as well, while 27 percent disagree. If both Romney and Bush run, analysts expect them to wage a competitive battle for the allegiance of the Republican establishment.

    Another potential candidate viewed favorably by the GOP establishment, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, is sought less eagerly by Republicans. Only 29 percent say they'd like to see Christie launch a bid, while 44 percent say otherwise. (Only former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's numbers are more underwater: 30 percent of Republicans say they'd like to see her run, but 59 percent disagree.)

    Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee posts a respectable showing, with 40 percent of Republicans urging him to get in, and 29 percent urging him to stay out.

    A trio of Republican senators who have stoked the enthusiasm of the grassroots have mixed numbers. Twenty-seven percent of Republicans would like Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul to mount a bid, but 34 percent disagree. Twenty-six percent would like Florida Sen. Marco Rubio to run, while 19 percent would not. Twenty-one percent want Texas Sen. Ted Cruz to run, while 25 percent want him to not run.

    Republicans are similarly lukewarm on some of the party's governors. Twenty-one percent want Gov. Rick Perry, R-Texas, to run, but 32 percent disagree. Fourteen percent want Gov. Bobby Jindal, R-Louisiana, to run, but 20 percent disagree. Wisconsin's Scott Walker fares better, however: 22 percent want him to run, while 12 percent don't.

    Finally, 19 percent of Republicans would like to see former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum run, while 29 percent would not. And 21 percent would like to see a campaign by Dr. Ben Carson, a retired neurosurgeon and conservative activist, while 17 percent disagree.

With those numbers, Christie may be having second thoughts about running. Plus, Bush and Romney have sucked just about all the oxygen from center-right donors and activists, thus leaving him very little room to proceed.

To me, Huckabee would be the most interesting candidate - an outsider with an outside shot at keeping pace with Bush/Romney. Huckabee's network of evangelical churches and social conservative activists levels the playing field somewhat with the big money boys. Neither Cruz nor Paul have that kind of built in support, which puts them behind the curve in organization and money.

Huckabee's long running TV show gives him name recognition he didn't have the last time out. Can he resurrect his Iowa miracle of 2008? If he is seen as a viable conservative alternative to Bush and Romney (and maybe Christie), the dynamics of the race would favor him the longer he can remain in the race.

[mystery-ak]

http://hotair.com/archives/2015/01/19/likely-2016-gop-nominee-suddenly-looking-less-likely/?utm_source=hafbp&utm_medium=fbpage&utm_campaign=haupdate

Likely 2016 GOP nominee suddenly looking less likely
POSTED AT 8:01 AM ON JANUARY 19, 2015 BY JAZZ SHAW


This weekend I was reading a background piece on the nascent 2016 GOP field by our friend Andrew Malcolm which provides some leading indicators to watch for. (Worth a read for all of us.) He may wind up being more than a little prescient given the results of the latest CBS poll regarding how self identified Republicans feel about each of the hopefuls and if they would like to see them run. This one was taken after Mitt made it official that he was officially thinking about officially running, though he might still officially give it a pass. With the 2012 nominee (and 2008 runner up) back in the mix, GOP voters seem to have adjusted their stance a bit.



Hardest hit? Tough to say, though Christie is certainly a contender for that prize.

The big news may be the nation trend among self identified Republicans toward the establishmentarian wing. We follow the comments here closely enough and you guys are essentially the base of the conservative base. There is basically no appetite among Hot Air readers for the people at the top of that list, but the most commonly mentioned names in our community don’t do well nationally. (And that’s not general election prognostication… these are primary numbers.) There are only six candidates who aren’t underwater; Mitt, Jeb, Huckabee, Rubio, Walker and Carson. Out of that grouping, the only ones who seem to have significant support among the conservative base are Walker and, to a lesser degree, Carson. And among the above water crowd they are dead last, though they at least have room to grow.

That’s another big factor to be unpacked here; how many people could make it above water if they were thrown a life preserver? There are actually only two candidates with such high name recognition and so many people having made up their minds already that they are essentially locked in or locked out. Sarah Palin leads that field with basically 90% having made up their minds and not wanting her to run by a two to one margin. (“Locked out”) Mitt is in the opposite position. (“Locked in”) The rest still have room – in theory – for the undecideds to break their way and get into positive territory.

Among the candidates most frequently mentioned at least somewhat positively among our readers, the ones with the most daylight on the horizon in terms of the undecideds are (in order) Rubio, Walker, Carson and Cruz, but each of them has a long way to go and needs a huge break in their favor as the numbers solidify.

The first debate is in August. That’s pretty much a lifetime away in politics, and the turn of a single news cycle could throw all of this into a top hat. But for now it’s looking like the same old same old. Everything old is new yet again.

[xfreeper]

Poll: Six in ten Republicans favor Romney running

And it's the other four that will keep him from winning

[massadvj]

I'd like to see Romney run because he is likely to siphon votes from Bush and Christie.  Does that mean I count in the 59 percent?