Author Topic: And so it starts...Iowa poll: Romney leads nascent Iowa field with 21%, Bush at 14%, Walker 10%  (Read 2297 times)

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http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/iowa-poll-romney-leads-nascent-iowa-field-with-21-bush-at-14-walker-10/



Iowa poll: Romney leads nascent Iowa field with 21%, Bush at 14%, Walker 10%
January 13, 2015
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by Neil W. McCabe

The 2012 Republican nominee for president holds a leads a broad field of GOP potential contenders in the Townhall/Gravis poll conducted Jan. 5-7 among 404 registered Republican voters queried. Note: the polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted by historical voting demographics.

Former Massachusetts governor W. Mitt Romney has never left the hearts and minds of Republican voters and he will hold the dominant position in the race for the 2016 presidential nomination until the other candidates spin up their own campaigns, said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, a Florida-based pollster and call center that executed the poll. The poll carries an error rate of 3 percent.

“Romney’s name recognition and the loyalty Republicans have for their last nominee give him a opportunity that no one else has,” Kaplan said. “The question is whether he will use or let the chance pass to others.”

After two years of dampening expectations, Romney—spooked by Bush’s momentum—is now working to the phones in order to put the band together for one more national tour.

While Romney decides what to do, the GOP race revolves around former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush, the choice of 14 percent, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker, polling at 10 percent.

Bush, the son of President George H. W. Bush and a younger brother of President George W. Bush, went from a stealth candidate over Thanksgiving to today’s full-blown exploratory candidate.

Although he is portrayed as a white bread patrician in the press, Bush ran Florida for eight years as a red-meat-movement-conservative cutting taxes, holding teachers accountable and expanding gun rights. A Catholic convert, Bush is married to the daughter of a Mexican migrant worker and speaks Spanish without the effort his brother W. exerted.

Of course, the defining moment of Bush’s tenure was his extreme effort in the losing battle to save the life of Terry Schiavo.

Walker, the governor of Iowa’s northeast border, signaled his intention to run with the New Year announcements of his presidential campaign team: Rick Wiley, campaign manager; Nicole Tieman, press secretary; Colleen Coyle, finance director, as well as, other staffers: Stephan Thompson, Jonathan Wetzel and Keith Gilkes.

Wiley, a managing partner of the Mercury political consultancy, led the 2012 Romney volunteer and ground game effort with a $180 million budget. In the 2008 cycle, was a senior staffer in Rudolph W. Giuliani’s White House run.

If Walker, who was the 2012 Human Events Conservative of the Year, does launch his 2016 run, it will be his fifth election in eight years. In 2008, he was elected Milwaukee County Executive, 57 percent of the vote, followed by governor in 2010, 52 percent of the vote, a Democratic-led recall election, 53 percent of the vote, and re-election for governor in 2014, 52 percent of the vote.

Former Arkansas governor Michael D. Huckabee garnered the support of 9 percent.

Huckabee won the 2008 Iowa caucuses with 34 percent of the vote, and who finished second behind Arizona’s Sen. John S. McCain III in the year’s race for the White House nomination. In that campaign, Romney was in second place until he withdrew to endorse McCain.

Kentucky’s Sen. Randal H. “Rand” Paul was the choice of 8 percent and Texas’ Sen. R. Edward “Ted” Cruz (R.-Texas) was the choice of 7 percent.

There is no doubt that Paul is gearing up for a run and the question is whether he can energize the people and pocketbooks that supported his father former Texas congressman Dr. Ronald E. Paul.

Paul the Elder finished third in the 2012 Iowa caucuses, but at the GOP national convention, 23 of the state’s 28 delegates voted for Paul.

In a campaign cycle full of dynastic names, the Paul’s father-to-son succession is the wild card.

In some ways, the 2012 Paul the Elder campaign was a hostage situation, as party mandarins watched to see if the congressman would endorse Romney and keep his supporters from turning the convention into Chicago 1968 spectacle, which he did, in exchange for his son getting a fair shot at the big time.

Paul the Younger, himself an accomplished eye surgeon, in his own right, has emerged from his father’s shadow. With major foreign policy address at the Heritage Foundation and a high-profile visits Israel and Detroit, the senator has created his own persona as a thoughtful and provocative conservative.

If there was a surprise in the poll it was the poor showing of New Jersey Gov. Christopher J. Christie, who was the choice of 5 percent.

Christie is coming off a very successful 2014 campaign cycle, when he was the leader of the Republican Governors Association, he won 31 out of 50 gubernatorial races—picking up two corner offices.

Much can change in the one year between now and the Jan. 16, 2016 Iowa Caucuses, in previous cycles many a now-forgotten politician was dubbed the next president in the early goings, only to have a mistress, a foul business deal or horrific debate performance bring everything to an all-stop.

Other numbers and charts from the poll:

continued at link
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Offline ABX

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Who are the 9% who like Huckabee? 

Offline alicewonders

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Who are the 9% who like Huckabee?

I can only imagine that they are people that are influenced by Huckabee the "preacher".

Today Glenn Beck said, "...I will tell you, however, that Mike Huckabee is not what he appears.  Mike Huckabee is one of the most disingenuous men I have ever, ever met.  And I have had several encounters with him and I know a lot of people really like him.  I am not one of them.  I think he’s a very disingenuous man.  I think he’s a political player, and I have less respect for people who invoke the name of God and then are politicians on top of it.  He’s a politician from the get-go" 

Huckabee is a slime-ball.



 
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Offline jmyrlefuller

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I can only imagine that they are people that are influenced by Huckabee the "preacher".

Today Glenn Beck said, "...I will tell you, however, that Mike Huckabee is not what he appears.  Mike Huckabee is one of the most disingenuous men I have ever, ever met.  And I have had several encounters with him and I know a lot of people really like him.  I am not one of them.  I think he’s a very disingenuous man.  I think he’s a political player, and I have less respect for people who invoke the name of God and then are politicians on top of it.  He’s a politician from the get-go" 

Huckabee is a slime-ball.
Indeed. Remember, the same state that elected him to 12 years in office also elected Bill Clinton to 10 years in the same. Arkansas politics requires a good deal of sleaze, and the revelation of that was Huckabee's undoing in '08.

But much of the Mississippi valley, including Iowa, is where the socon vein of the party has its biggest strengths, and Huckabee has found a way, especially the past few years, to parlay his public figure into a following there.

I'm pleasantly surprised that Walker is hanging so strong against the Bush machine and Romney's name recognition. Considering how little we know outside his fiscal policies, that could either be a boon or a bane.
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Offline Atomic Cow

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And in 2007, Rudy was leading the pack, and he totally flamed out.
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Interesting to see how weak Cruz is in IA

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It's even more interesting to see how much focus is on an election that is just shy of 2 years away!  Really?  To my knowledge no one has definitely stated that they are running.  We've got the GOPe big hitters, namely; Bush, Romney, Huckabee and Christie, gathering their financial backers, but my hunch is Huckabee and Christie will fizzle out and Bush and Romney will duke it out and when people are sick of the two of them the true conservatives will jump in. 
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Interesting to see how weak Cruz is in IA


Even more so, how weak Bush is when compared to the "I don't know" vote (i.e., "Uncertain).  If this were to be a true harbinger of the 2016 nomination results, then we would be running Romney.

Offline truth_seeker

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Governors top four. Little support for non-Governors.
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Offline ABX

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Interesting to see how weak Cruz is in IA

I believe Cruz is starting to suffer from many of the problems Palin had. From the Right, he is labeled as a 'savior and the only hope', on the left, he is parodied and mocked until the vision many have of him who don't follow closely, is nothing close to reality.

Both were decent folks who seem to have honest intentions to make things better and lean far more Conservative than many counterparts. Neither should be considered a savior though as one fault on the Right is we've started looking for "someone from the government who is here to help".

He will never be perfect, and thus, he will eventually fail anyone who has put him on a pedestal because everyone, in their own mind, builds the pedestal with one leg and no safety net- you fall of that leg, you fail.

Now to see if I can create any more metaphors in a single observation.

Offline alicewonders

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I believe Cruz is starting to suffer from many of the problems Palin had. From the Right, he is labeled as a 'savior and the only hope', on the left, he is parodied and mocked until the vision many have of him who don't follow closely, is nothing close to reality.

Both were decent folks who seem to have honest intentions to make things better and lean far more Conservative than many counterparts. Neither should be considered a savior though as one fault on the Right is we've started looking for "someone from the government who is here to help".

He will never be perfect, and thus, he will eventually fail anyone who has put him on a pedestal because everyone, in their own mind, builds the pedestal with one leg and no safety net- you fall of that leg, you fail.

Now to see if I can create any more metaphors in a single observation.

There's no doubt Cruz has received the Palin treatment from the media AND some within his own party!  I don't think he has really put himself out there as a presidential candidate.  I know there are some trying to "draft" him, but I hate draft campaigns.  I actually think he is quite valuable right now in the Senate.

I'm not saying this to put Sarah Palin down - not at all - but Ted Cruz is an Ivy-league educated champion debater.  I don't see him doing reality shows and such.  He might be biding his time until the field is winnowed down a bit.  He speaks the truth though, and I think his ideas speak to the ordinary man.  I really like him and I think he gets a bad rap by people trying to Palinize him. 

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Offline aligncare

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I believe Cruz is starting to suffer from many of the problems Palin had. From the Right, he is labeled as a 'savior and the only hope', on the left, he is parodied and mocked until the vision many have of him who don't follow closely, is nothing close to reality.

Both were decent folks who seem to have honest intentions to make things better and lean far more Conservative than many counterparts. Neither should be considered a savior though as one fault on the Right is we've started looking for "someone from the government who is here to help".

He will never be perfect, and thus, he will eventually fail anyone who has put him on a pedestal because everyone, in their own mind, builds the pedestal with one leg and no safety net- you fall of that leg, you fail.

Now to see if I can create any more metaphors in a single observation.

We all appreciate how hard you've worked on these metaphors.  And we get the idea.  :beer:

Offline jmyrlefuller

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Interesting to see how weak Cruz is in IA
Birthers. If it weren't for that I'd suspect he'd be in Walker's position right now.

I don't think he's Palin. Palin, alas, has the intellectual depth of the kiddie pool (that much has become painfully obvious the past few years as she has almost become a self-parody) and you can't say the same of Cruz. His trouble will be for money: his approach to politics is going to turn off a lot of the big-money donors who are probably going to flock to Jeb or Romney.

Of course, big money has a tendency to vote Democrat anyway.
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I believe Cruz is starting to suffer from many of the problems Palin had. From the Right, he is labeled as a 'savior and the only hope', on the left, he is parodied and mocked until the vision many have of him who don't follow closely, is nothing close to reality.

Both were decent folks who seem to have honest intentions to make things better and lean far more Conservative than many counterparts. Neither should be considered a savior though as one fault on the Right is we've started looking for "someone from the government who is here to help".

He will never be perfect, and thus, he will eventually fail anyone who has put him on a pedestal because everyone, in their own mind, builds the pedestal with one leg and no safety net- you fall of that leg, you fail.

Now to see if I can create any more metaphors in a single observation.

Yes, those hungry wolves seem to be circling the "Cruz" wagon, but I certainly don't see Cruz backing down, nor do I see him losing potential voters; quite the opposite.  The more the GOPe and Dems try to bury him, the better he looks.  Ted Cruz is golden!
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Registered Republicans? We're talking a bout a caucus here, the hard core of the hard core. This is an insult to the intelligence, makes you want to punch the smug off someones face.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2015, 01:11:00 am by Free Vulcan »
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I have no problem voting for Romney, but I do not think I could force myself to vote for Jeb Bush. People say they are the same but I do not see that.
 
Jeb Bush has as much hatred for Conservatives or anything Tea Party related as Reid and Pelosi have. And he is way, way, off the reservation on immigration. He speaks like he is a leading member of La Raza.
 
Romney is Ok. But Bush is out of the running for me. I do not think I could vote for him even if he was the only 'Republican' ticket.
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I have no problem voting for Romney, but I do not think I could force myself to vote for Jeb Bush. People say they are the same but I do not see that.
 
Jeb Bush has as much hatred for Conservatives or anything Tea Party related as Reid and Pelosi have. And he is way, way, off the reservation on immigration. He speaks like he is a leading member of La Raza.
 
Romney is Ok. But Bush is out of the running for me. I do not think I could vote for him even if he was the only 'Republican' ticket.

I agree with you.  Bush is out of the running for me as well.  I refuse to vote for the "lesser of the two evils" again.  Yes, it may hand the oval office to the Dems; but perhaps, just perhaps the GOPe will get the message.  As for Romney; he's lost twice and he does not solidly support the 2nd Amendment.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2015, 01:59:55 am by libertybele »
I Believe in the United States of America as a Government of the people, by the people, for the people; whose just powers are derived from the consent of the governed; a democracy in a republic; a sovereign nation of many sovereign states; a perfect union one and inseparable; established upon those principles of freedom, equality, justice and humanity for which American patriots sacrificed their lives and fortunes.  I therefore believe it is my duty to my country to love it; to support its Constitution; to obey its laws to respect its flag; and to defend it against all enemies.

Offline Formerly Once-Ler

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Yes, those hungry wolves seem to be circling the "Cruz" wagon, but I certainly don't see Cruz backing down, nor do I see him losing potential voters; quite the opposite.  The more the GOPe and Dems try to bury him, the better he looks.  Ted Cruz is golden!
Well he is golden with 7% of IA voters anyways.

Offline aligncare

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I agree with you.  Bush is out of the running for me as well.  I refuse to vote for the "lesser of the two evils" again.  Yes, it may hand the oval office to the Dems; but perhaps, just perhaps the GOPe will get the message.  As for Romney; he's lost twice and he does not solidly support the 2nd Amendment.

He was governor of Massachusetts with a 'rat legislature the entire time. What could he possibly have gotten done on ANY conservative issue in Massachusetts? Not much. I will grant you Massachusetts care is a problem for him going forward.

But, I think in his role as president, and caring as much as he does about America in the age of violent Islamic terrorism, I think we would see a different aspect from him on gun rights. Of course, the president has no role in changing gun rights in America.

Obama and Eric Holder have been in office for six years. They are arguably some of the worst leftist anti-gunners ever in office. How have gun rights changed for you in the six-years?

I'm not worried about Romney's impact on the second amendment.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2015, 02:40:10 pm by aligncare »

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Well he is golden with 7% of IA voters anyways.

When he started his run for the senate in Texas he had 2% name ID here! Better not take him to lightly!
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
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Quote
The more the GOPe and Dems try to bury him, the better he looks.

Yes indeed!

If you are paying attention they will ALWAYS tell you who they most fear!

"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien