http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/2016-senate-races-113837.html?hp=t2_r16 in ‘16: The new battle for the Senate
Republicans begin the new election cycle on defense.
By Kyle Cheney
12/29/14 5:31 AM EST
Republicans just won the Senate majority last month. But can they keep it?
A cursory glance at the 2016 Senate map shows a slew of endangered Republicans up in two years — with few opportunities for offense as in 2014, when the GOP won nine Democratic-held seats to grab control of the chamber.
But a closer look at some of 2016’s most intriguing and competitive races suggests that the battle for Senate control is more complicated than it seems. In states like Pennsylvania and Illinois, for example, Democrats aren’t convinced they have candidates that are both willing to run and packing enough star wattage and talent to topple first-term incumbents. And in others — like Kansas, Iowa and North Carolina, where Democrats thought they had a fighting chance in 2014 — Republican incumbents up in 2016 seem better positioned to win another six years.
The GOP also enters the new election cycle with a four- or five-seat cushion, depending on which party wins the presidency. And Republicans are crowing that, so far, all of their incumbents seem primed to run for reelection. Democrats lost three of the four open-seat races prompted by their party’s retirements in 2014.
Complicating the calculus are the prospect, if not likelihood, that at least two Republicans up for reelection in 2016 will run for president: Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. In Louisiana, Sen. David Vitter, another Republican, is the frontrunner in the state’s 2015 governor’s race, and a victory would change the equation there as well, but only if Democrats can lure a top-tier candidate.
Democrats have their own battles to fight too: a potential primary in California, if Sen. Barbara Boxer retires and another in Maryland, if Sen. Barbara Mikulski opts against seeking another term. But the biggest fights are expected in GOP-held seats.
The following is an analysis by POLITICO of 2016’s most consequential Senate contests, based on interviews with dozens of local strategists, operatives and experts. What emerges is an early look at the 2016 political landscape, a rough sketch of the rising stars in some of the country’s perennial swing states and the dynamics that are likely to affect each of the contests.
As we noted, it’s early. New candidates can emerge in the early months of the election cycle, and many of 2014’s top prospects were late-comers too. In a surprising number of races, operatives crossed their fingers and prayed that a wealthy outsider would jump in and self-fund, in the mold of Pennsylvania Gov.-elect Tom Wolf. But the same operatives also acknowledged that it’s increasingly important for candidates to declare their intentions early and being stockpiling cash for the fierce campaigns to come. That means the field of potential candidates is already taking shape. Here’s the rundown:
Alabama
Incumbent: Richard Shelby (R), 5th term
The consensus: No one expects Shelby, 80, to face a serious challenge — either in the general election or in the primary, although Shelby’s rankled some on the right by voting with the establishment on spending legislation. Instead, the action in Alabama is below the surface. The GOP bench is teeming with prospects waiting for the chance to jump in if and when Shelby calls it quits — or if health issues force him to retire. Shelby, like Sen. Harry Reid, is a member of the 1987 Senate class and will be one of the 10 most senior members of the body next year. The reelection of Sen. Thad Cochran in Mississippi denied Shelby the chance to helm the Appropriations Committee, but he’ll still run the Banking Committee.
— Although some Republicans were convinced Shelby might be vulnerable to a conservative challenge like Cochran — who barely survived a primary runoff to win a new term — allies note that Shelby is a regular presence at home, touring all 67 counties each year. Shelby has also aligned with Senate conservatives whenever possible, but he’s been adept at picking his moments to side with leadership to keep the government functioning. The only chance there’s a fight for his seat is if he decides to retire, considered a longshot this term, given that he ended September with an absurd $17,939,096 on hand.
Post-Shelby candidates: It’s the all-Republican show. At the top of the list is Attorney General Luther Strange. Others potentially waiting in the wings: U.S. Appeals Court Judge William Pryor, a Mobile native whose jurisdiction includes Alabama, Georgia and parts of Florida. Reps. Mike Rogers, Mo Brooks, Robert Aderholt and Martha Roby could give it a look if they were willing to give up their seats. Newly elected Secretary of State John Merrill is considered an ambitious up-and-comer, too.
Wildcard: The conviction of Mike Hubbard. If the speaker is ultimately convicted on corruption charges, it could reorder the political landscape in Alabama. He’s at the top of the food chain, and his undoing could empower Strange and the few Republicans willing to challenge their own hierarchy. That could usher in a new generation of Alabama politicians and, when Shelby and Sessions retire, be the beginning of a new political pecking order.
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