CNN/ORC Poll: Bush surges to 2016 GOP frontrunner

[massadvj]

What matters is not really what the base thinks - conservative or GOP-e - but what the unconvinced think.  And that must take into account how much of the DNC narrative - particularly the lies about the GOP nominees - they will accept.  And, with all due respect, the unconvinced will almost certainly be at least somewhat receptive to an anti-Bush, anti-dynasty narrative.

I'll vote for him - Jeb Bush - if he's the nominee, but I will do so with the knowledge that he will not win.

Ideologically, I'd say Jeb Bush and I are more simpatico than anyone in the field with the exception of Rand Paul.  I am not contending he cannot win because I don't like his politics, I want to make that clear.  It's a "professional" opinion, and yes the professional part should be taken with a big grain of salt because no one really knows what he is talking about in politics.

[speekinout]

The biggest factor in most elections is charisma. I don't think there's much question that Reagan, clintoon, Bush43 and 0bama won a lot of votes by being much more charismatic than their opponent. Bush41 was basking in the glow of Reagan charisma the first time, and had to stand on his own the second time (when he lost to a more charismatic candidate).

I don't know who the charismatic candidates will be in 2016, but for sure, hillary won't be one. I don't know which of the possible GOP candidates can be considered charismatic, but I doubt that anyone considers Walker, Bush or Paul to be so. Cruz and Christie both have appeal mostly to people who already agree with them, and that doesn't help get votes.
I like most of the potential contenders, so I'd probably support the most charismatic one in the primary (and, oh, please - let there be at least one like that!  )

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Indeed. I don't know ANYONE who seriously sees Jeb Bush as a legitimate candidate that they want for the office.

Hello.

[240B]

Really? Seriously?
 
Another Bush?
 
So out of 350 million people in America, all of our Presidents have to come from a tight little oligarchy of a dozen people? Voting for another Bush would be the same a voting for the Queen of England. It would be a vote for a royalty in America. That is, of course, if he could win.
 
If you want to know who the next loser is going to be, you only have to look to the Liberal media. When you see them RAA-RAA supporting a Republican, you can be dead sure that guy is going to lose.
 
Obviously, that is why they are cheerleading for a particular Republican. They want to choose the Republican they have to face. And they are never going to pick a winner. When they choose our candidate you can be dead sure it is because they know he is a loser. Just like they did with that nutball McCain.
 
They're trying to do it again.

[Oceander]

Hillary was defeated by a low-name recognition underdog, so that case follows the pattern.  In Rudy's case, I think he self-destructed.  McCain just ended up being the last man standing.

If you take it out of the realm of politics, the same principle applies.  If you are going to challenge a well-established leader brand it is generally thought to be better to do it with a new, fresh unknown brand than to try to rehabilitate an old, tired brand.  In Men's grooming, for example, Proctor and Gamble took on the market with a new brand called Axe, positioned it as the brand that got men laid and dominated the competition in a short time.

Another axiom of marketing is that to challenge an established brand you have to start with the youngest market segments because they are the easiest to persuade.  You capture the innovators and the early adopters and everyone else follows.  This was the OPapaDoc strategy, and it worked quite well.  The only candidate we have with youth appeal is Rand Paul.  He seems to be the only candidate even interested in the 80 million kids who are going to make up 40 percent of the voters in 2016. 

I think about Jeb Bush and the youth vote and I cringe.

very, very well said.

[massadvj]

very, very well said.

Thanks.  Sometimes there just ain't enough lipstick....

[Luis Gonzalez]

Indeed. I don't know ANYONE who seriously sees Jeb Bush as a legitimate candidate that they want for the office. Yet this is the one they're forcing upon us. And it always works. It worked with McCain and it worked with Romney. There were at least a few people who saw Romney as best for the job. But Jeb's record is undeniable, at least for any honest person. (It hasn't stopped the puppet-pundits from trying.) He is a tyrant, totally unfit for public office.

If they truly want to kill off the Republican Party, they would be wise to nominate Jeb Bush.

The highlighted sentence is a case study in the echo chamber mentality created by Internet political forums in the last decade or so.

Internet political forums have a tendency to almost exclusively feature articles that reinforce the already existing ideology of its membership, and as a result, people are isolated to a degree that solipsism becomes the norm. Members come to believe that since the majority of the members all think one way, the people at large must certainly think the same way, and as a result, theirs is the true and sole political ideology suitable to run the country.

Obviously Jimmy, the fact that you don't know anyone who sees Jeb as a legitimate candidate is more a commentary on who you know and who your friends are, than on Jeb's legitimacy as a candidate.

I'm sure that the people and organizations ready to dump tens of millions of dollars behind his run disagrees with you.

He may not win the nomination or the Presidential election, but he's certainly as valid a candidate as the rest of the people running.

[Luis Gonzalez]

Maybe.  I have a PhD in marketing and I was a political operative for Willie Brown for six years.  I'd be the first to say social science is BS.  But I'd also point out that if you are about to fall off a cliff it is better to have one eye open than both eyes closed.  Social science gives us about one eye partially open, obstructed with dirt, and both near-sighted and far-sighted.  But it is still better than nothing.

Yeah, well. I sell beans for a living. What do I know... right?

My PhD in nothing tells me that the polity gets sick of one party and votes for the other on nearly every cycle.

Johnson, Nixon (Ford), Carter, Reagan, Bush1, Clinton, Bush2, Obama.

That seems to apply here, and sometimes the easiest explanation is the right explanation.

Hillary IS the lipsticked pig.

No charm, no charisma, crappy speaker.

She's got bad history (Obamacare was her idea long before it was Romney's idea), and in order to run as a Democrat she's going to have to attack Obama's performance (in order to put as much separation between them as possible) while at the same time appeasing the DNC base. That "base" is disgruntled with Obama for not being progressive enough, while the rest of the country is tired of being hurt by progressive politics.

She's going to have to run to the left of Obama to win the nomination, but she's never been a progressive, so she has the same problem that you say Jeb has. She has to rehabilitate an old tired brand.

Maybe Jeb's advantage would be in a message that conveys that as a successful ex-Governor, he understands that the best way to run a country is to let the States run their business with as little interference from the Federal government as possible, and pledge that to the voters.

You know... Federalism at a time when people fear an Imperial Presidency and hate Congress.

He needs to dust off the old "Government isn't the solution to the problem. Government is the problem" banner, hoist it high and run like Hell with it.

I think that's the message most people want to hear right now.

But then again, what do I know?

I know beans.

Go ahead, ask me about beans.

[truth_seeker]

Hello.

A former prolific poster from Arizona on this forum, assured us McCain would not win his last primary.

Reason: Nobody she knew would vote for McCain.

[Millee]

http://www.caintv.com/according-to-new-cnn-polling-y

[GourmetDan]

Indeed. I don't know ANYONE who seriously sees Jeb Bush as a legitimate candidate that they want for the office. Yet this is the one they're forcing upon us. And it always works. It worked with McCain and it worked with Romney. There were at least a few people who saw Romney as best for the job. But Jeb's record is undeniable, at least for any honest person. (It hasn't stopped the puppet-pundits from trying.) He is a tyrant, totally unfit for public office.

If they truly want to kill off the Republican Party, they would be wise to nominate Jeb Bush.

This is just big money giving the GOP the candidate they want them to have.  Happens all the time...

[Relic]

I have real doubts about Hillary's inevitability. I think Warren will best her for the Democrat nomination. Hillary has a lot of negatives.

The echo chamber thing is kind of silly. Does anyone really consume TBR exclusively? I go here, TOS and some very liberal sites as well. In addition to that, get this, I talk to people. That would be in real life. I haven't found a way to form exclusive, conservative only cliques, so, I get a variety of opinions. My best friend is a left leaning moderate, and his brother is a moderate leaning lefty.

Putting political issues aside, which is kind of odd when discussing politics, Jeb Bush has no chance. None. He may win the nomination, but I'm extremely comfortable saying he has virtually no chance winning a general election for president.

[aligncare]

I peruse only TBR. Does that make me shortsighted? I don't think so; there are a variety of opinions here. I agree with some, disagree with others.

But, I feel confident in my sense of what is waffling in the political winds. Enough, at least, to stake out a position that I feel makes sense and is congruent with my worldview.

[aligncare]

I have no idea what I just said. But I feel someone had to say it. 

[evadR]

I have no idea what I just said. But I feel someone had to say it. 

That is the most intelligent statement I have heard or read in weeks :)

[aligncare]

That is the most intelligent statement I have heard or read in weeks :)

 

Don't get the wrong idea, that's a big guy hug, you understand.