http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/17/what-you-will-and-wont-be-able-to-do-now-that-obama-is-opening-relations-with-cuba/?tid=sm_fbBy Matt O'Brien December 17 at 1:42 PM
Don't light up those Cuban cigars just yet.
The news that the United States and Cuba will begin the process of normalizing relations doesn't mean you can book that Havana vacation right away. Tourists still won't be able to get visas, although businesses, baseball teams, humanitarian groups, and families with Cuban relatives will. And anyone who does visit will only be able to bring back $100 worth of Cuban cigars and rum.
The economic impact, in other words, of normal relations with Cuba will be close to nil at first -- though perhaps more important over time. Cuba, after all, only has a $71 billion economy, which puts it on par with ... about half of Iowa. The far bigger political takeaway is that, yes, the Cold War ended 20 years ago, and, the unilateral U.S. embargo wasn't showing any sign of bringing down the Castros.
It takes awhile, but engagement can work when it comes to changing a country's political system. Just look at Taiwan or South Korea. Both were ruled by dictatorships — so we were happy to support them — that had normal economic relationships with us. From there, it's a familiar story. Decades of export-led growth created the kind of strong middle classes that demanded political rights to match their economic ones. It's the same process we hope will happen in China, which, admittedly hasn't so far, although its big anti-corruption campaign might be the first step towards something resembling a more responsive ruling class.
Cuba is still a generation away from even that. But that could now change, because it has to. Cuba can't depend on Venezuela's petrodollar-funded largess anymore, not when the price of oil has halved the past few months. Venezuela, after all, has enough problems of its own — like empty supermarkets and bonds it won't be able to pay back — that it can't go subsidizing other failed communist economies.
That's why Cuba has no choice but to grab the economic opening the Obama administration is offering. Cuban émigrés will be allowed to send up to $2,000 every three months, rather than the $500 they were previously allowed, in remittances. (Little is said about whether they'll be allowed to buy Cuban real estate).
The Cuban government is going to let more of its people get Internet access; only 5 percent do right now. And, to that end, U.S. companies will be allowed to export things like computers, smartphones, and software to Cuba. They'll also be able to sell basic goods like construction material and agricultural equipment to help Cuban companies and farmers rebuild their economy on more efficient ground.
