http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/223974-can-keystone-save-landrieu-in-laNovember 13, 2014, 06:00 am
Can Keystone save Landrieu in La.?
By Jonathan Easley
Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) is looking to the Keystone XL oil pipeline to save her.
Republicans are seeking to build on their Election Day gains by knocking off the Louisiana Democrat, who’s the underdog in the Dec. 6 runoff election against Rep. Bill Cassidy (R).
The Cassidy campaign has “a united front, and they don’t have to do a whole lot right now,” said Bernie Pinsonat, a longtime Louisiana pollster. “It’s all up to Landrieu to change the direction the campaign is headed.”
In the first day of the lame-duck session, Landrieu tried to do just that, making an impassioned plea for the Senate to approve the oil sands pipeline in the lame-duck session.
“I’ve fought for this like a tiger,” Landrieu said on the floor of the Senate.
With Democrats swept out of power Nov. 4, Landrieu lost one of her most salient campaign messages — her chairmanship of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee. The heavy pivot to approving the pipeline, which could bring jobs to her state but is reviled by environmental groups, is a new way to salvage the argument of her energy clout for the state. Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-Nev.) office announced debate on the bill would begin Tuesday with a vote possible the same day.
Still, it might not be enough, and Republicans were ready to counter. On Wednesday, GOP leaders promised that, if Cassidy is elected, they’d give him a spot on the plum committee, central to the energy-rich state, and the House will also vote Thursday on a Keystone bill sponsored by Cassidy.
They’re the latest maneuvers Cassidy has pulled off to boost himself in the runoff.
During the general election, Cassidy lost the endorsements of many on the right to Tea Party candidate Rob Maness. Democrats say this is evidence Cassidy has failed to inspire inside Republican circles.
“He’s just not a dynamic candidate,” said Landrieu spokesman Fabien Levy. “The fact that Maness got 14 percent of the vote shows how highly discontented the party is with Cassidy as a candidate.”
However, Republicans across the conservative spectrum are now rallying behind the GOP candidate in hopes of maximizing their gains in the Senate. Maness embraced his one-time rival in a warm Facebook post that showed the candidates and their wives on a double date.
Other conservative leaders and groups have followed suit, including Family Research Council President Tony Perkins, former vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin and the Tea Party Express. GOP leaders in the state held a “unity rally” on Monday headlined by Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.).
Democrats challenge the notion that there is real momentum or unity behind Cassidy.
“They can drop people in from across the country, but that won’t make a difference,” state Democratic Party spokeswoman Kirstin Alvanitakis said. “The election will be decided by Louisianans.”
But here, too, the longtime incumbent appears to be in trouble.
She underperformed on Election Day, taking only 43 percent in a field where Republicans split the vote. Cassidy came in at 42 percent, and Maness at 14 percent. In a head-to-head contest, Cassidy leads Landrieu by nearly 5 percentage points, according to RealClearPolitics.
“Everyone agrees the electorate won’t be the same one that voted on Nov. 4, so we’re operating on that assumption,” Alvanitakis said. “[Landrieu] has been counted out in elections before, and she’s won. She’s even won in a runoff before … she’ll do it again.”
Still, the contrast between the two candidates is stark. While Cassidy was the beneficiary of a unity rally with GOP heavyweights, Landrieu appears to have been abandoned by national Democrats.
Just days after a nightmarish Election Day sent legions of Democrats packing, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee pulled the $2 million in ad buys it had committed to the Louisiana Senate race.
According to a Bloomberg analysis of Kantar Media data, Republican groups are now crop dusting Louisiana airwaves on Cassidy’s behalf, while Landrieu has been effectively silenced. A whopping 96 percent of the TV spots in Louisiana have so far run in favor of Cassidy, against only 4 percent for Landrieu, according to the analysis.
Instead, the DSCC appears content to participate from afar through fundraising emails that claim Landrieu “can absolutely win the run-off,” while branding Cassidy as “the next Ted Cruz.”
Her campaign has continued to pound home the idea that Landrieu’s heft in Washington will be missed if Louisiana voters don’t reelect her. A campaign ad released over the weekend showed Cassidy stumbling over a speech, before the narrator asks: “We’d lose Mary Landrieu’s clout for this?”
But Pinsonat said this was never a winning issue for Landrieu, citing his polling that showed 60 percent of Louisianans said they would rather send someone new to Washington than return a senator to Congress because of their political influence.
“She used that argument, and as the polls predicted, it wasn’t something that helped her campaign,” he said.
Pinsonat said a vote on the pipeline might help. On Wednesday, Landrieu introduced the bill on the Senate floor, saying its passage would be a “positive signal that we heard the voters and we understand this cry to break the gridlock.”
The president opposes building the oil sands pipeline, so the vote might allow the Louisiana Democrat to put some space between herself and President Obama.
Still, a vote would come with some risk. Even though Landrieu has been a longtime proponent of the pipeline, Pinsonat said her campaign might have a hard time convincing voters that this lame-duck push is “sincere.”
That’s the question Cassidy sought to raise on Fox News.
“I think it’s incredibly cynical,” he said. “Keep in mind Harry Reid could have brought this up any time he wished. … He’s not brought up any such bills in six years, and now, when Sen. Landrieu is in danger, he brings it up. Again, it is cynical. She supports the president 97 percent of the time. It is a fig leaf promoting the idea that she has independence. She does not; she supports [President Obama’s] agenda.”
For now, Democrats are holding on to Landrieu’s record as evidence she’ll be able to pull through. She’s already won two Louisiana Senate runoffs since arriving on the scene in 1996.
Levy went so far as to say “history is behind Landrieu” because no Republican in recent history finished second in the general and won the runoff. He also touted Louisiana’s impressive 2014 midterm turnout in what was otherwise a down year nationally. He said a runoff election might be available to more voters because it falls on a Saturday.
“Everybody agrees this will be challenging, but she’s done it before, and she’ll do it again,” Alvanitakis said. “Republicans have always counted her out, and we encourage them to do so once again.”
