http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/defecting-senate-democratsBySAHIL KAPURPublishedNOVEMBER 11, 2014, 8:00 AM EST
By the time Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) moves in to the majority leader's suite just off the Senate floor, he'll likely be leading a caucus of 54 Republican senators.
That means he'll need six Democrats to break filibusters and achieve the magic 60-vote threshold required to pass controversial legislation through the Senate, such as hacking away at Obamacare or approving the Keystone pipeline.
There are six Democrats who are most likely to, in the interest of bipartisanship, join Republicans on some key issues and make life miserable for Democratic leaders and President Barack Obama. Think of them as the Ben Nelsons of the next Congress.
McConnell's incentives will be different than those of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), because his majority will largely remain the party of opposition to Obama. Unlike Reid, who has had an interest in functional government, McConnell could conceivably decide that the GOP is better off politically if the partisan stalemate continues ahead of the 2016 election, because presidents take the lion's share of the blame for inaction.
"He benefits from that actually because it helps to create the gridlock he can run against," said Jim Manley, a former top spokesman for Reid. "And to date, with few exceptions, [McConnell has] not shown much willingness to compromise with the president."
Of course, McConnell may sometimes face defections from within his own caucus, which would complicate his task of legislating.
"I think what we've seen with McConnell is in the minority is that he's had a very substantial capacity is keeping his troops united," said Norm Ornstein, a congressional scholar with the American Enterprise Institute. "I think that erodes considerably under these circumstances [when he's in the majority]."
If he does manage to keep his caucus united, here are McConnell's six top Democratic prospects for reaching 60 votes.
Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri
Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia
Sen. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota
Sen. Joe Donnelly of Indiana
Sen. Angus King of Maine
Sen. Jon Tester of Montana
