Braley Works for Iowa
MEMO
TO: Interested Parties
FR: Sarah Benzing, Campaign Manager
DATE: Saturday, September 27, 2014
SUBJ: Iowa Poll Results Show Sudden GOP Money Wave Could Swamp Senate Race
Overview
With the first debate tomorrow, Iowa’s US Senate race is just coming into focus for most voters. Tonight’s Iowa Poll is a snapshot of where this race begins. (For historical perspective, the last September Iowa Poll taken in a statewide midterm open seat race – the 2006 gubernatorial contest – showed Jim Nussle and Chet Culver deadlocked at 44% each. Culver defeated Nussle by 10 points on Election Day. And in 1998, a September Iowa Poll in the open seat race for governor showed future Gov. Tom Vilsack trailing Jim Ross Lightfoot by 20%, 51% to 31%.)
The first Iowa Poll must be viewed in the context of the current state of play in the Iowa Senate race -- specifically, that spending by the Ernst campaign and her Republican allies has far surpassed spending on the Democratic side over the past few weeks. This sudden surge in GOP spending has skewed what previously was an even race (when the TV spending numbers were closer to parity for the duration of the summer). While Iowa Democrats have built a significant field advantage by creating a more advanced and data-driven voter targeting system, its advantages can only be realized if the other side does not succeed in buying the election on TV and if the race remains close through the fall.
This Race Is Tied When TV Spending Is Even
Since the Iowa Senate race leveled out shortly after the Republican primary, public polls consistently showed the race to be tied through the start of September. Not coincidentally, the money being spent on TV was largely at parity during this period. In mid-June Gravis Marketing showed the race 44% to 43% in favor of Ernst; in mid-July NBC polled the race tied at 43%; in mid-August Rasmussen showed the race tied at 43%; in the end of August PPP showed the race essentially tied at 41% to 40% in favor of Braley; and in early September CNN showed the race essentially tied at 49% to 48% in favor of Braley.
Republicans And Their Allies Are Now Significantly Outspending Democrats
In just the past week, the gap in spending between Democrats and Republicans in Iowa has grown into a gulf: there has been nearly 50% more spent on air in support of Joni Ernst than in support of Bruce Braley. For the second half of September, the Ernst campaign and its backers have spent over $500,000 more than the Braley campaign and Democratic groups on television, according to internal tracking. Unless this disparity is equalized over the next few weeks, there is a real chance that spending by outside groups will determine the Iowa Senate race, and as a result, control of the U.S. Senate. The Iowa Democratic Field Operation Will Prevail In a Close Race
As reported by CNN, the organic Democratic ground game In Iowa “keeps Republican strategists...awake at night.” The Democratic field advantage in Iowa is long established, having helped Iowa vote for President Obama in both 2008 and 2012. Indeed, the Daily Beast reported, “for over a decade, one thing has been a gimme: Democrats will have a much better ground game than Republicans.” Even Republicans in Iowa admit that they are outgunned when it comes to field, with Craig Robinson of The Iowa Republican writing, “Republicans are simply getting out worked when it comes to early voting, It’s not difficult to institute an early voter program, it just requires staffers to get out of the air conditioned campaign office.”
The field advantage that Iowa Democrats have over Republicans is already showing results as early voting is beginning, with a 27,000 ballot advantage in the number of absentee ballots requested, as reported in the New York Times. Additionally, because of advanced targeting methods being employed on the Democratic side, some 73 percent of the 23,000 unaffiliated voters who’ve requested absentee ballots are likely to support Braley.
Bottom line: as long as Democratic spending in Iowa matches the firepower that the other side is contributing to the air war, the Democratic ground game will help to ensure that Iowans turnout to elect Bruce Braley.
Once-Ler here. Winners don't usually whine about half million $ disparity when several millions have been spent already. latest poll shows has Ernst up 6 http://webmedia.newseum.org/newseum-multimedia/dfp/pdf28/IA_DR.pdf
