http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=8E73ED75-84C3-4550-950F-09D5C228E06B Will Dems go all-out to beat Sen. Pat Roberts now?
By: Kyle Cheney and Manu Raju
September 18, 2014 06:37 PM EDT
Democrats won a key legal battle in the Kansas Senate race Thursday, but now the party faces a wrenching choice: Spend precious dollars to try and unseat Republican Pat Roberts in a solidly red state, or sit on the sidelines and pass up a chance to steal a seat — and potentially the Senate majority — from Republicans.
The ruling removed the Democratic candidate from the ballot, clearing the way for a showdown between Roberts and independent Greg Orman and, at least on paper, increasing the likelihood that the longtime senator can be beaten. A smattering of recent polls shows Roberts running even or trailing, creating a tantalizing opportunity for Democrats to go all in to finish off the longtime incumbent. A win would all but dash GOP hopes of winning the Senate.
But taking out an incumbent senator is difficult under the best of circumstances, and whatever Roberts’ faults — he’s faced a firestorm of criticism for allegedly losing touch with the state — he is still a Republican in a solidly red state. Beyond that, Orman has forsworn any allegiance to either party: Even if Democrats help him win, he might align with the GOP, anyway.
National Democrats also recognize that any overt show of support would undercut Orman’s claim of independence.
Asked if Democrats should spend money to either prop up Orman or attack Roberts, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid offered a big smile but little more. “I don’t know anything about Kansas,” he told POLITICO.
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), the No. 3 in party leadership and former DSCC chairman, would only say this when asked if Democrats should spend in Kansas: “He’s an independent and he’s running as an independent not as a Democrat. It’s that simple.”
For now, the Kansas Democratic Party is staying silent. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee hasn’t jumped in either or foreshadowed any spending on the race. The Senate Majority PAC, too, has made no decision on whether to spend in the race. A new super PAC formed by an Orman supporter with ties to Democrats, could become a vehicle for quiet Democratic support, but it hasn’t made major moves yet.
That’s for the better, according to Jim Slattery, a former Democratic congressman from the Sunflower State.
“My view is that Orman is doing quite well by himself … There may be a time when the DSCC may want to get into this race, but I don’t think that time has arrived yet,” said Slattery, a six-term Congressman who helps raise funds for Kansas Democrats. “I think that he’s going to attract independent financial resources from Kansas and around the country.”
After the ruling, Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, a Republican, said Democrats are legally bound to name a replacement candidate by Sept. 26. It’s unclear whether they’ll comply.
Slattery said an Orman win could immediately vault the newcomer to a position of influence in the Senate because he hasn’t decided which party to ally with yet.
“If he gets elected in Kansas, he will be a very unique free agent,” he said. “He will be a very, very important player here in Washington as a free agent, and I think that creates a wonderful opportunity for him and a wonderful opportunity for Kansas.”
Despite no official establishment support, Democrats can scarcely conceal their eagerness for Orman to defeat Roberts. And operatives on both sides of the aisle say it may be impossible for Democrats to sit on their hands with control of the Senate in the balance.
“This is a golden opportunity because Pat Roberts personifies everything that voters are tired of in Washington,” said Raj Goyle, a Democratic fundraiser and former state representative from Kansas.
A new super PAC called Kansans Support Problem Solvers was organized late last month by Gregory Wolf, a local attorney with ties to Democrats but who has also contributed to Orman’s campaign as well. Wolf declined to respond to requests for comment.
Orman’s support from Democrats and their allies is partly why Republicans are attacking him as a Democrat in disguise. If they can undercut his image as a moderate reformer, Orman’s appeal to moderate voters might drop. GOP allies point out that Orman’s campaign relies on polling, advertising and digital firms shared almost exclusively by Democrats. Orman gave money to prominent Democrats as recently as 2008, when he contributed to then-Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign and the DSCC.
Orman’s rejected those claims, arguing that he’s supported independent causes since then and espouses politics in the mold of moderate Republicans like Bob Dole. To underscore the point, he touts a string of endorsements from former elected Kansas Republicans. And he’s on the air with an ad that rejects both parties.
“I tried both parties and like many Kansans, I’ve been disappointed with both,” he says to the camera in the 30-second spot. “As an independent, I won’t answer to either party, I’ll answer only to the people of Kansas.”
Roberts enters the general election campaign as an immediate underdog, in a state that has elected Republican senators in every contest since 1932. The most recent poll in the race, from Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, shows Roberts behind 41-34. But that poll included the Democrat, Chad Taylor, as an option, and he pulled in 6 percent of the vote. A libertarian, Randall Batson, also earned 4 percent.
Asked to choose between Roberts and Orman, respondents favored Orman by 10 points.
That’s why Thursday’s court ruling was so significant for Orman. Roberts’ camp quickly panned the decision as politically motivated.
“Today, the Kansas Supreme Court deliberately, and for political purposes, disenfranchised over 65,000 voters,” the Republican’s campaign manager Corey Bliss said in a statement. “In a bow to Senators Claire McCaskill and Harry Reid, liberal activist Supreme Court justices have decided that if you voted in the Democrat Primary on August 5th, your vote does not matter, your voice does not matter, and you have no say in who should be on the ballot on Election Day.”
Orman shrugged off the ruling, contending that he’s only focused on his own race.
Complicating the matter for Democrats is a push by Kobach to force the party to name a new Senate candidate, a move he says is required by Kansas law. His office, which previously warned that ballots must go to the printer by Sept. 19, now says Democrats have until Sept. 26 to name a new nominee.
“The law requires that the Democratic Party name a replacement candidate, and the Secretary of State has arranged for an extra week to do so,” a spokeswoman said.
Roberts took a beating but survived a nasty primary, emerging bruised and unpopular in his quest for a fourth term. His conservative opponent painted him as a Washington insider who had lost touch with his Kansas roots.
But no one’s counting Roberts out just yet. A Republican operative familiar with the race said Roberts may be the beneficiary of a political climate that favor the GOP. A Republican-leaning House race in the state’s main swing district could turn out Roberts voters, and getting another Democrat’s name on the ballot could split anti-Roberts votes, the operative said.
“It’s gonna be close. If they let [Taylor] off the ballot and there’s no [replacement], it’s going to be real rough for Roberts,” the operative said.
Another development that may favor Roberts: Panicked national Republicans sent top operatives to Kansas to help shore up Roberts’ flagging campaign. That could portend a more aggressive, disciplined approach to the contest with Orman.
“They’re getting out there more, they’re advertising,” said Chapman Rackaway, a professor of political science at Fort Hays State University. “They became a much more disciplined campaign.”
Rackaway said that the race is likely to tighten, so keeping Taylor or another Democrat off the ballot could be the difference. “Orman’s going to need every bit of that padding because my interpretation of this is that the Roberts campaign is about to start attacking,” he said.
