ANOTHER AVALANCHE OF BAD POLLS FOR SENATE DEMS

[Bigun]

ANOTHER AVALANCHE OF BAD POLLS FOR SENATE DEMS

Denver Post: “A new poll by Quinnipiac University has Republican Cory Gardner ahead of Democrat Mark Udall by a striking 8 percentage points in their race for U.S. Senate — the challenger’s largest lead to-date among public polls. The survey of more than 1,200 likely Colorado voters favored Gardner 48 to 40 percent to the incumbent Udall, with independent, or unaffiliated, candidate Steve Shogan taking home 8 percent.”
 
[A new Gallup survey released this morning finds Republicans are now viewed just as favorably as Democrats, rebounding from their low of 28 percent during last fall’s government shutdown. Respondents held equal favorable views of both parties, at 40 percent.]
 
Buuut… - “Quinnipiac’s findings depart significantly from a Denver Post poll conducted last week that found Udall leading Gardner by 4 percentage points. Similarly, Gardner's biggest advantage over Udall before the latest Quinnipiac results was 2 percentage points, according to a tally of more than dozen polls of both likely and registered voters recorded by Real Clear Politics. Other recent polls have shown the Udall and Gardner in a statistical tie or even a Udall advantage.”
 
LANDRIEU SINKING FAST
The latest batch of Fox News battleground polls show close contests in several pivotal Senate races, including the showdown for the Republican-held seat in Kansas as well as Democratic defensive efforts in Iowa and North Carolina. But the stunner is in Louisiana where Republican Congressman Bill Cassidy leads Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., 35 percent to 31 percent. The best news for the GOP seems to be that the Sarah Palin-backed candidate in the race, Rob Maness, hasn’t been able to gain traction despite relentless attacks on Cassidy.

Welcome to the jungle - If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote on Election Day, the top two finishers head into a Dec. 6 runoff. In a two-way match up, Cassidy topples Landrieu 51 percent to 38 percent. Landrieu’s best hope to survive is to win in the first round, which would require Maness drawing Cassidy into a firefight that drives voters away from the GOP. This result suggests that’s not happening.

http://www.denverpost.com/election2014/ci_26558492/poll-says-cory-gardner-leading-mark-udall-by

http://www.gallup.com/poll/176093/democratic-republican-party-favorable-ratings-similar.aspx?version=print

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/co/colorado_senate_gardner_vs_udall-3845.html#polls

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/09/17/fox-news-polls-kansas-senate-race-tightens-after-dem-drop-out-other/

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2014/09/17/senate-battlegrounds-louisiana/

[Lando Lincoln]

Thank you for posting this, Bigun.  I need cheerful news, however small or big it may be.

[olde north church]

They need to be at 5+ to beat the fraud.

[massadvj]

That Colorado poll is very good news.  I was thinking Colorado could be written off.  It the GOP holds TN, KS and GA then all it will need is three of the tossups.  Two of them (LA and AR) look to be heavily leaning our way.  That means we have to take CO, NC, AK, IA or NH to get to 5 gains.  MI and MN are leaning Dem at this point.  There would have to be a major wave for either of things to switch.