Author Topic: Report: It’s YOUR Fault: Fed Says Americans Who “Hoard Money” Are To Blame For Poor Economy  (Read 4296 times)

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Offline EC

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Interestingly, the dollar is continuing to strengthen against the Euro.  Is that less of a good sign for us or more of a bad sign for the EU?   :pondering:

The overall 3rd quarter economic figures for the Eurozone are supposed to be pretty dire, according to pre - reports. People are getting their money out while they can, and the GBP can only take so much.

There is also pretty widespread speculation that Scotland will break away, and they've been told in no uncertain terms that if they do, the Bank of England will no longer back or honor their currency, leaving the only possible backer to be the European Central Bank. A new country, having to basically build an entire infrastructure from scratch is going to cause huge problems.

Same thing happened the last time the EU expanded. The Euro dropped.
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Offline MACVSOG68

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It must be more of a bad sign for the EU, I see nothing here that is a good sign for us.

You're probably right.  It is interesting though that gold and silver are far lower than they've been in recent years, which indicates a more valuable dollar.  Deflation comes to mind.  I'm not a fan of rules of thumb, but one is in inflation, buy gold; in deflation, hoard dollars.  But yeah, the EU does seem to be shaky at best. 
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Offline EC

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That is, to a degree, how many small, isolated economies end up working.  Many of the colonial era economies in the rural states operated that way de facto since the farmers didn't get hard currency, if at all, until they sold their crops and since the local economies revolved around the farmers, the rest of the economy went without hard currency as well.

It would certainly work in rural areas. But ... what about manufacturing? Still need raw materials digging and refining and machining and assembling. How would those workers be "paid." Even if the country got knocked back to the Amish level of technology, you still need steel for tools, miners to dig the coal to make the tools, transportation.
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Offline MACVSOG68

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The overall 3rd quarter economic figures for the Eurozone are supposed to be pretty dire, according to pre - reports. People are getting their money out while they can, and the GBP can only take so much.

There is also pretty widespread speculation that Scotland will break away, and they've been told in no uncertain terms that if they do, the Bank of England will no longer back or honor their currency, leaving the only possible backer to be the European Central Bank. A new country, having to basically build an entire infrastructure from scratch is going to cause huge problems.

Same thing happened the last time the EU expanded. The Euro dropped.

Well the GBP is continuing to climb against the Euro.  But that's interesting about Scotland.  I thought only one poll favored independence.  Are there more?  What would Scotland's economy look like on its own?  I know it still makes whiskey (thank God), and then there's fishing, some oil, tourism and government spending.  Anything else to keep it afloat?  Why would it have to build an entire infrastructure from scratch?
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Offline MACVSOG68

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It would certainly work in rural areas. But ... what about manufacturing? Still need raw materials digging and refining and machining and assembling. How would those workers be "paid." Even if the country got knocked back to the Amish level of technology, you still need steel for tools, miners to dig the coal to make the tools, transportation.

A handful could make it, but the vast majority couldn't...thus making the handful quite vulnerable.  Those who hate the government and its institutions at all levels would soon be pleading for government engineered stability.
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Offline EC

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Well the GBP is continuing to climb against the Euro.  But that's interesting about Scotland.  I thought only one poll favored independence.  Are there more?  What would Scotland's economy look like on its own?  I know it still makes whiskey (thank God), and then there's fishing, some oil, tourism and government spending.  Anything else to keep it afloat?  Why would it have to build an entire infrastructure from scratch?

Not much fishing any more, most of the deep sea trawlers work out of Grimsby now. Oil, sure, but the rigs aren't owned by the Scots, nor are the pipelines. Government spending is always there, but where does the government get the money to spend? There is ship building, but that can be shifted to Portsmouth quite easily after the current hulls are complete.

As for infrastructure - they're going to have to replace the NHS, for one thing. Build their own central banking system from scratch. A lot of the UK call centers are located in Scotland - contacts will have to be renegotiated. All the airports are owned by an English company.

Then there is the vexed question of Balmoral. The Queen is rather fond of that place and owns it outright, as in it is hers, not the Crowns.

Edit - oops, forgot. They are going to need their own military too.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2014, 03:29:42 pm by EC »
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Offline MACVSOG68

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Not much fishing any more, most of the deep sea trawlers work out of Grimsby now. Oil, sure, but the rigs aren't owned by the Scots, nor are the pipelines. Government spending is always there, but where does the government get the money to spend? There is ship building, but that can be shifted to Portsmouth quite easily after the current hulls are complete.

As for infrastructure - they're going to have to replace the NHS, for one thing. Build their own central banking system from scratch. A lot of the UK call centers are located in Scotland - contacts will have to be renegotiated. All the airports are owned by an English company.

Then there is the vexed question of Balmoral. The Queen is rather fond of that place and owns it outright, as in it is hers, not the Crowns.

Edit - oops, forgot. They are going to need their own military too.

Interesting, thanks.  But the voters would also be aware of the issues wouldn't they?
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It would certainly work in rural areas. But ... what about manufacturing? Still need raw materials digging and refining and machining and assembling. How would those workers be "paid." Even if the country got knocked back to the Amish level of technology, you still need steel for tools, miners to dig the coal to make the tools, transportation.

Therein lies part of the reason why barter economies generally remain small agricultural economies.

That being said, miners usually have access to "hard" commodities that can be used as a fungible medium of exchange - gold and silver aren't the only metals that have been used.  Also, since metal implements are useful to farmers, miners and farmers can set up a mutually beneficial exchange system in which food is bartered for metal goods.

Offline EC

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Interesting, thanks.  But the voters would also be aware of the issues wouldn't they?

Scotland has more than it's fair share of LIVs. And despite being in the Union for a long time, they really don't like the English much.
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Good discussion Oceander, EC and Alice.  Was on jury duty yesterday and missed the real discussion on the thread.  I do find the concept of the IOU note interesting, but there would be some issues, namely what backs it up other than trust. California tried that and banks stopped taking them, and that was just a budget crisis, not a currency crisis. 

Not having access to currency is worse than just printing tons of currency, so that's what the government would have to do, even at the risk of hyperinflation.  We can once again talk about "not being worth a continental".  And obviously the government would have to keep the banks afloat to distribute the monopoly money.  The only real faith people have in our government is based on a viable system of currency IMHO.  The rest of what Uncle Sam does is still supported by money.

Interestingly, the dollar is continuing to strengthen against the Euro.  Is that less of a good sign for us or more of a bad sign for the EU?   :pondering: 


There are issues with private notes, including private bank notes as well as IOUs.  Most of those problems don't show up in small, closed economies, however.  That is how the concept of negotiable instruments developed.  For the most part regular people no longer use many negotiable instruments; the exception being personal checks, but even then personal checks are usually only negotiated once - when they're deposited or cashed at a bank.  Technically speaking, a personal check can be used to pay another third party - provided that third party will accept it - if the holder endorses the check and hands it to the third party; in fact, they can technically be negotiated multiple times, with each holder endorsing it at the time it's negotiated.

Warehouse receipts are another form of scrip currency that used to be used but aren't much anymore.

Basically, the system of fiat paper currency we have now is of very recent vintage and has only a few historical precursors.  Most currency systems beforehand were usually systems of privately issued notes - banks typically issued them because banks held a fungible asset that could be readily traded in place of the bank's notes - gold and silver - but the colonies, and then the states - prior to the Constitution - also issued various scrip currencies; in the agricultural states scrip would be issued to farmers and collateralized with the farmer's crops in the field.  In fact, one of the goals of the Constitutional Convention was doing away with state-issued scrip, in part because many of the states that issued scrip also tended to try and force creditors, especially out of state creditors, to accept that scrip in full satisfaction of the debts owed to those creditors.  Since out of state creditors lent in hard currency, they expected to be repaid in hard currency, and state-issued scrip was basically useless to them.  Hence the prohibition in the Constitution on the states making anything but gold or silver money, and the power granted to Congress to control the value of money.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2014, 03:51:28 pm by Oceander »

Offline MACVSOG68

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There are issues with private notes, including private bank notes as well as IOUs.  Most of those problems don't show up in small, closed economies, however.  That is how the concept of negotiable instruments developed.  For the most part regular people no longer use many negotiable instruments; the exception being personal checks, but even then personal checks are usually only negotiated once - when they're deposited or cashed at a bank.  Technically speaking, a personal check can be used to pay another third party - provided that third party will accept it - if the holder endorses the check and hands it to the third party; in fact, they can technically be negotiated multiple times, with each holder endorsing it at the time it's negotiated.

Warehouse receipts are another form of scrip currency that used to be used but aren't much anymore.

Basically, the system of fiat paper currency we have now is of very recent vintage and has only a few historical precursors.  Most currency systems beforehand were usually systems of privately issued notes - banks typically issued them because banks held a fungible asset that could be readily traded in place of the bank's notes - gold and silver - but the colonies, and then the states - prior to the Constitution - also issued various scrip currencies; in the agricultural states scrip would be issued to farmers and collateralized with the farmer's crops in the field.  In fact, one of the goals of the Constitutional Convention was doing away with state-issued scrip, in part because many of the states that issued scrip also tended to try and force creditors, especially out of state creditors, to accept that scrip in full satisfaction of the debts owed to those creditors.  Since out of state creditors lent in hard currency, they expected to be repaid in hard currency, and state-issued scrip was basically useless to them.  Hence the prohibition in the Constitution on the states making anything but gold or silver money, and the power granted to Congress to control the value of money.

Would be a hell of a transition...or band aid as the case might be.  And trust would be the key, a key that would be harder to develop than would the riots and looting that would begin almost immediately.  I suppose martial law would hold things together long enough, but as most here know, that would have its own set of issues.
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Would be a hell of a transition...or band aid as the case might be.  And trust would be the key, a key that would be harder to develop than would the riots and looting that would begin almost immediately.  I suppose martial law would hold things together long enough, but as most here know, that would have its own set of issues.

That's understating it.  This is the sort of economy that would arise after the riots have passed.  Some small, isolated communities might escape relatively unscathed, but everyone on the two coasts would be ravaged before this sort of economy would take root.

Offline MACVSOG68

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That's understating it.  This is the sort of economy that would arise after the riots have passed.  Some small, isolated communities might escape relatively unscathed, but everyone on the two coasts would be ravaged before this sort of economy would take root.

Martial law would be the only hope especially in the urban areas.  Not a pretty picture.
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Martial law would be the only hope especially in the urban areas.  Not a pretty picture.

The first few nights would be terrifying, and the soldiers would be forced to shoot significant numbers of people, but I think after a few days under martial law the situation would calm down somewhat and quiet desperation would creep in and replace the outright large scale violence.  I do not think martial law under the National Guard and/or US Army would be pretty; it certainly would be more effective than any sort of "policing" the UN can do, and would be substantially more effective than the sort of riot control police departments are trained to carry out.  I still wouldn't want to be there.

It seems to me that, rather than hoarding weapons, gold, and silver, 'twould be better to reinforce a corner of one's basement as a sort of hidey-hole, hoard a stock of canned goods that can be eaten cold if need be, and water, and perhaps a few objects that could be used as weapons if need be; baseball bats, axe handles - an axe (and/or a hatchet) - knives and the like.  A rifle or shotgun would probably also be useful, along with a decent supply of ammunition, but my thinking is that a firearm is essentially a short-term tool useful primarily to get one through the first few really bad nights.  I'd also go with a rifle rather than a pistol because it has more "rhetorical" effect - a rifle can be seen much further away and will scare off a certain proportion of potential attackers, even if it's not loaded; a pistol has less of that effect.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2014, 05:31:06 pm by Oceander »

Offline EC

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It seems to me that, rather than hoarding weapons, gold, and silver, 'twould be better to reinforce a corner of one's basement as a sort of hidey-hole, hoard a stock of canned goods that can be eaten cold if need be, and water, and perhaps a few objects that could be used as weapons if need be; baseball bats, axe handles - an axe (and/or a hatchet) - knives and the like.  A rifle or shotgun would probably also be useful, along with a decent supply of ammunition, but my thinking is that a firearm is essentially a short-term tool useful primarily to get one through the first few really bad nights.  I'd also go with a rifle rather than a pistol because it has more "rhetorical" effect - a rifle can be seen much further away and will scare off a certain proportion of potential attackers, even if it's not loaded; a pistol has less of that effect.

Don't forget water, and lots of it.

http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,88069.0.html - Surviving chaos in the city.
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Don't forget water, and lots of it.

http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,88069.0.html - Surviving chaos in the city.

Nope.  Didn't forget it.  Only question is where/how to store and how much.  Plastic jugs are fine if necessary, but they do get funky after a while.  Perhaps a porcelain-lined cistern of some sort as primary storage, with smaller containers (i.e., plastics) used as needed.

Offline EC

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Nope.  Didn't forget it.  Only question is where/how to store and how much.  Plastic jugs are fine if necessary, but they do get funky after a while.  Perhaps a porcelain-lined cistern of some sort as primary storage, with smaller containers (i.e., plastics) used as needed.

Old bathtub with a cover.
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Old bathtub with a cover.

Indeed.  Perhaps two, just to be safe, if we're going survivalist already.

Offline MACVSOG68

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The first few nights would be terrifying, and the soldiers would be forced to shoot significant numbers of people, but I think after a few days under martial law the situation would calm down somewhat and quiet desperation would creep in and replace the outright large scale violence.  I do not think martial law under the National Guard and/or US Army would be pretty; it certainly would be more effective than any sort of "policing" the UN can do, and would be substantially more effective than the sort of riot control police departments are trained to carry out.  I still wouldn't want to be there.

It seems to me that, rather than hoarding weapons, gold, and silver, 'twould be better to reinforce a corner of one's basement as a sort of hidey-hole, hoard a stock of canned goods that can be eaten cold if need be, and water, and perhaps a few objects that could be used as weapons if need be; baseball bats, axe handles - an axe (and/or a hatchet) - knives and the like.  A rifle or shotgun would probably also be useful, along with a decent supply of ammunition, but my thinking is that a firearm is essentially a short-term tool useful primarily to get one through the first few really bad nights.  I'd also go with a rifle rather than a pistol because it has more "rhetorical" effect - a rifle can be seen much further away and will scare off a certain proportion of potential attackers, even if it's not loaded; a pistol has less of that effect.

We're definitely not long term survivalists but trying to cover all bases for the short term (a few months), we have a well stocked basement of canned goods and MREs, as well as water and a high quality portable water filter.  We do have an assortment of weapons, not for trade, but for defense.  We also have metals to cover sudden inflationary spikes as well as cash outside of banks for deflationary periods.  Plenty of medical supplies are also in the basement along with assorted batteries for portable lights.  Extra propane for cooking if that becomes necessary.

Anything long term, few will make it anyway. 
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We're definitely not long term survivalists but trying to cover all bases for the short term (a few months), we have a well stocked basement of canned goods and MREs, as well as water and a high quality portable water filter.  We do have an assortment of weapons, not for trade, but for defense.  We also have metals to cover sudden inflationary spikes as well as cash outside of banks for deflationary periods.  Plenty of medical supplies are also in the basement along with assorted batteries for portable lights.  Extra propane for cooking if that becomes necessary.

Anything long term, few will make it anyway. 


To quote Keynes (on the one point on which he was correct):  in the long run we're all dead.