http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=384C2B79-38EC-427A-B117-9228A5BF145E The 5 sleeper Senate races
By: James Hohmann
September 3, 2014 05:11 AM EDT
The likeliest Republican paths to winning the Senate majority are pretty clear, but there are potential sleepers and under-covered races that could be one shock poll from bursting onto the map in the final eight weeks.
Meanwhile, the list of viable Democratic pickup opportunities ends with Georgia and Kentucky, but there’s also one potentially emerging race that could scramble both parties’ electoral calculus.
Here are five wild cards to keep an eye on during the home stretch to the November elections.
Oregon
Pediatric neurosurgeon Monica Wehby, a first-time candidate, is challenging freshman Sen. Jeff Merkley. The state is deep blue, and vote-by-mail ensures high turnout. But the Obamacare exchange rollout has been a Democratic liability, and some business leaders are down on Merkley, who remains somewhat undefined for an incumbent.
Freedom Partners Action Fund, the Koch-backed Super PAC, is committed to spend $1.6 million in September bloodying Merkley, but officials with the group are candid that they may cancel their October reservations if the race does not show signs of tightening.
Virginia
Ed Gillespie, taking on Democratic Sen. Mark Warner, was down more than 20 points in two July public polls. But the former Republican National Committee chairman’s Rolodex has allowed him to raise millions, and he’s getting help from top-tier surrogates like Mitt Romney and John McCain, who will campaign with him Wednesday in Norfolk.
Gillespie went on the air Tuesday with his second ad of the campaign, which linked the relatively popular former governor with the sagging president. There’s every indication that the race will tighten, given the national climate, especially if a group like American Crossroads (where Gillespie has several close friends) spends big on his behalf.
But if Gillespie really showed signs of closing the race, Democrats would attack him much harder for the lobbying he did on behalf of Enron and his time as a senior adviser in George W. Bush’s White House.
Minnesota
Al Franken, who won his seat in 2009 after a recount and protracted legal battle, has worked hard to keep a low national profile and project an image of seriousness that has won over many old skeptics. His Republican challenger, Mike McFadden, has run a good campaign and is a strong fundraiser. But it’s still a high-single-digit or low-double-digit race and has shown no signs of closing.
Republicans like to say Franken has a glass jaw that could be shattered with the right amount of outside spending, but it has not materialized. Franken, meanwhile, has been a prolific fundraiser, though he probably has the highest burn rate of any incumbent. It seems inevitable he will attack McFadden’s investment banking background, but a heavy infusion of outside Democratic money in October may signal the race is tightening.
Kansas
Republican Sen. Pat Roberts beat a group of challengers in last month’s primary with only 48 percent of the vote. He’s run a tepid campaign and took a beating over questions about his residency. Polls now show an unexpectedly competitive race.
A Democratic robopoll from Public Policy Polling put Roberts’ approval rating at just 27 percent, and independent candidate Greg Orman actually leads the three-term incumbent in a head-to-head matchup. If the unknown Democratic nominee, Chad Taylor, dropped out and threw his support behind Orman, a former Democrat, the race could get interesting.
New Jersey
Democratic Sen. Cory Booker, who won a special election last year, should cruise to a full term. He faces Jeff Bell, a one-time Reagan speechwriter who is strongly and unapologetically conservative, especially on social issues.
Bell defeated then-Sen. Clifford Case in a 1978 Republican primary — only to lose to Bill Bradley in the general election — and has lived in Virginia since the early 1980s. Bell, running on anti-Federal Reserve platform, has backing from old friends like Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol and Steve Forbes.
Gov. Chris Christie waited a month to formally endorse him after the primary and still avoids strong criticism of Booker, but he’s agreed to host a fundraiser for his party’s nominee later this month.
