http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=4E5F10E5-80D3-45EF-81B9-0179669BA899The 5 most endangered House members
By: Alex Isenstadt
September 2, 2014 05:05 AM EDT
Based on interviews with more than a dozen pollsters, strategists and TV admakers, here’s a look at the five most vulnerable House incumbents in the 2014 elections:
Rep. Bill Enyart (D-Ill.)
Enyart, a freshman Democrat, is running for reelection in a southern Illinois district where Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn and President Barack Obama are deeply unpopular. A former adjutant general in the Illinois National Guard, Enyart remains an unknown figure throughout much of the district and has struggled to raise campaign cash. His Republican opponent, state Rep. Mike Bost, is famous for his tirades on the floor of the Legislature.
Rep. Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.)
Grimm’s 20-count federal indictment has made him the most endangered House GOP lawmaker of 2014. But he’s not done yet. Internal polling from both parties suggests that Grimm is tied or slightly ahead of his Democratic opponent, former New York City Councilman Domenic Recchia. But Democrats have promised to bombard Grimm with millions of dollars of TV ads, and national Republicans are queasy about coming to Grimm’s aid.
Rep. Rick Nolan (D-Minn.)
Democrats have grown increasingly worried about Nolan, who won a 2012 comeback race after serving in the House from 1974 to 1980. Over the summer, the Democratic groups House Majority PAC and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees joined forces to air TV ads in an attempt to boost the 70-year-old incumbent, who has also struggled to raise money. Nolan faces a strong opponent in Republican businessman Stewart Mills, who has been dubbed the “Brad Pitt” of the GOP.
Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.)
Polling shows Shea-Porter, a third-term Democrat, falling behind her likely Republican opponent, former Rep. Frank Guinta. Guinta, who unseated Shea-Porter in 2010 and then lost to her in 2012, is well known in the Manchester area and the favorable environment could push him over the top in a district that skews slightly to the right.
Rep. Steve Southerland (R-Fla.)
Southerland, a sophomore Republican, faces perhaps the strongest Democratic recruit in the country in Gwen Graham, a Leon County schools official who is the daughter of former Sen. Bob Graham. Graham has outraised Southerland, and she’s waging an energetic campaign, running quality TV ads and joining her father on the trail.
