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Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?

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pjohns:
Is a Russian invasion of the rest of Ukraine imminent?

Here is a little from The Daily Beast on the subject:  Exclusive: U.S. Won?t Share Invasion Intel With Ukraine - The Daily Beast


--- Quote ---American spies have spotted all the signs of an all-out Russian invasion of Ukraine. Why won’t they tell the Ukrainians about the forces on their border?

U.S. intelligence agencies now have detailed information that Russia has amassed the kind of forces needed for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But the Obama administration hasn’t shared with Ukraine the imagery, intercepts, and analysis that pinpont (sic) the location of the Russian troops ready to seize more Ukrainian land, The Daily Beast has learned.

President Obama has repeatedly and publicly expressed solidarity with the Ukrainian people—and warned Russian leader Vladimir Putin that there will be consequences if he takes over any more Ukrainian territory. Yet Obama’s administration has so far been reluctant to hand over the kind of intelligence the Ukrainians could use to defend themselves. U.S. officials and members of Congress briefed on the crisis in Ukraine tell The Daily Beast that senior U.S. military officers have been instructed to refrain from briefing their Ukrainian counterparts in detail about what the United States knows about the Russians troops amassing on the border. ...

And while any decision about an invasion is Putin’s alone, the signs are mounting that an invasion is near. Congressional staffers briefed on the matter say U.S. intelligence agencies have detected the supply lines needed for an invasion. Battlefield hospitals and mobile medical units have accompanied the infantrymen, tank columns and artillery units amassing at the border as well. When Russia announced military exercises near Ukraine in February, the U.S. intelligence community did not see such supply lines or medical units...

The current estimate is that Russia has amassed 80,000 troops on Ukraine’s border. Vice Admiral Frank Pandolfe, the director for strategic plans and policy for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the House Armed Services Committee on Tuesday that the Russian forces include fixed and rotor wing aircraft, tanks, artillery, light infantry and special operations forces. Pandolfe said the Russian military has the ability to deploy these different units in a “synchronized manner.”
--- End quote ---

There is a reasonable argument to be made, of course, that this is merely a matter of intimidation, ostentatiously displayed.  Ultimately, though, it all depends upon what Vladimir Putin thinks is necessary to get what he really wants.  Neither the US nor Europe appears to be ready to stand up to him, with serious sanctions; so he can probably do whatever he pleases, free of any concern about the consequences.  (Well, there is one potential consequence, viz.:  Although Russia could doubtless conquer Ukraine, militarily--and with relative ease, considering the dilapidated state of Ukraine's military--it would surely face prolonged guerrilla warfare and sabotage; and I am not certain whether this is a price that Putin is willing to pay.  But it may be.)

EC:
He doesn't want all of it. Everything East of the Dnieper plus the Crimea will be fine. Secures the one warm water port the Russian Navy has, the supply lines to the port and a hell of a lot of raw materials.

I doubt a full on military invasion is on the cards - look for increasing unrest and riots in eastern Ukraine, with Russia ready to move in for "humanitarian purposes."

SPQR:
All the signs are there. If you see troops massing at a border of a neighboring country or moving equipment into an area they are getting to invade. For example, if we see troops massing at the DMZ by the North Koreans they are ready to make a move. Another good example, is when Operation Barbarossa began it started with German troops massing at the Soviet Union border before it invaded. Satellites will be picking up the area humming with Russian activity.

EC:
I'm not sure.

Putin is a sly sod and trained in "the night side" of operations, if you like. He'll want a something to cloak him, rather than an out and out territory grab. He's ambitious, but far from stupid.

SPQR:

--- Quote from: EC on April 09, 2014, 09:36:40 am ---I'm not sure.

Putin is a sly sod and trained in "the night side" of operations, if you like. He'll want a something to cloak him, rather than an out and out territory grab. He's ambitious, but far from stupid.

--- End quote ---

When the Russians are putting 300,000 troops total the Southern and Western military districts on the border of the Ukraine something big is going to happen. Every single newspaper on a Google search are coming to the same conclusion. Putin is an extremely smart man who makes his decisions on a calculation.He is betting that Obama will do nothing about it and he will be right. Obama does not have any standing in the international community. He is a weakling. While the Russians are playing chess the Americans are playing with marbles.

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